Daily Intelligence Summary - Ukrainian Perspective - December 22, 2024, 12:55 UTC

Executive Summary

The situation on December 22, 2024, remains critical. Russian forces are pushing forward, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, while Ukrainian forces continue to rely heavily on drone warfare and are showing signs of strain.

Today's intelligence reveals a continuation of intense fighting across multiple fronts, with a concerning escalation in drone warfare and missile strikes. Russian forces are making territorial gains, and the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. Diplomatic efforts continue, but a negotiated settlement seems distant.

Part 1: Military Developments

1. Drone Warfare: A Battle in the Skies

• Relentless Drone Activity: Both sides are engaged in a fierce drone war. Ukrainian drone operators are actively targeting Russian positions, equipment, and logistics. However, Russian forces are launching a significant number of drones, with reports indicating they used approximately 100 Geran drones overnight to deplete Ukrainian air defenses.
• New Groups of Drones: Several groups of attack drones are moving in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, in the direction of Chernihiv Oblast, with new groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest.
• Air Raid Alerts Across Ukraine: Multiple air raid alerts have been issued and lifted throughout the day across Ukraine, reflecting the widespread drone threat.
• Ukrainian Successes:
  • Ukrainian forces destroyed 3 Russian BTRs and damaged a Russian position near Kursk.
  • Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
  • Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
  • Ukrainian forces are utilizing a drone to drop multiple munitions on targets, including personnel and buildings.
  • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Russian command post.
  • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
  • In the Kupyansk area, fighters of the 16th Special Forces Brigade destroyed an enemy T-64BV tank with two FPV drones.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station with an FPV drone and damaging a Russian command post with another drone.
  • Drones of the Security Service of Ukraine destroyed an ammunition depot near Markine in the Donetsk region.
  • Ukrainian drone remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Border guards of the "Steel Frontier" brigade destroyed an enemy ammunition depot and several enemy shelters in the Sumy direction.
  • Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
  • Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed an enemy drone with an aerial ram.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to target a Russian position near a road and successfully targeted two soldiers in the open.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station and damaging a Russian command post with drones.
  • Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian "Mavik" drone near Chasiv Yar.
  • Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a Russian reconnaissance UAV over Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian BMPT "Terminator" near Kreminna.
  • Ukrainian "Birds of Madyar" unit used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian "Sherhni Dovbush" unit conducted a successful drone strike on a Russian soldier in an open field.
  • Ukrainian "Shadow" unit used drones to successfully attack a Russian position in a residential area during the day, and a Russian bunker at night.
  • Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
  • +330 drones were purchased thanks to donations. In total, 127,329 FPV drones have been purchased.
  • Donetsk scouts identify positions, equipment, command posts, and observation posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and then destroy them.
  • 422nd Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems Luftwaffe on the Zaporizhzhia direction hit and destroyed a buggy, 2 ATVs, 9 dugouts, 8 shelters, 6 enemy KIA and 5 WIA.
  • UA REG TEAM conducted successful drone operations in the Kursk region, targeting various Russian military vehicles.
  • Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
  • FPV-drones of the National Guard of Ukraine "Spartan" are destroying Russians in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • Pilots of the "ACHILLES" battalion of the 92nd brigade, operating heavy night bombers, are reported to have destroyed enemy personnel and a truck in the Kharkiv region.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. The operation involved a group of attack drones, including "Baba Yaga" heavy bombers and FPV drones. The T-90 tank was destroyed by a direct hit from an FPV drone, while the ammunition depot was destroyed by a "Baba Yaga" drone. The operation was carried out by the 3rd Company of the "Achilles" strike drone battalion, 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. The operation resulted in the destruction of a significant amount of Russian military equipment and ammunition. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirmed the operation and praised the effectiveness of the Ukrainian drone units.
• Russian Drone Attacks:
  • Multiple drone attacks were reported in Kazan, Tatarstan, with at least six impacts and fires in multiple districts.
  • A new explosion was reported in Kazan, with local sources claiming it was a Ukrainian drone that had not detonated in the morning.
  • Explosions were also reported in Sochi, Voronezh Oblast, Rostov, and Orel. A fuel depot in Stalnyy Kon, Orel Oblast, was set on fire due to a drone attack.
• New Technology:
  • Introduction of Chinese Anti-Drone Technology: A Chinese company, Anwei, has introduced a portable individual FPV-drone jammer, the AT-623, highlighting advancements in counter-drone warfare.
  • Germany is transferring a new batch of Songbird 150 reconnaissance drones to Ukraine.

2. Ground Warfare: Russian Offensive Continues

• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of the city, pushing towards Yantarnoye.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Ukrainka and have entered Pisky. Intense battles are ongoing, particularly around Novooleenovka.
  • Toretsk: Russian forces are consolidating control and making advances, with street fighting ongoing.
  • Chasov Yar: Russian forces control over half of the city and have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from a key compound.
  • Vremivka Direction: Clashes are reported, with Russian forces raising a flag in Novyi Komar.
• Kursk Region:
  • Russian forces have liberated Novoivanovka and are advancing in the Sudzha district.
  • Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces pushing Ukrainian units back.
  • Reports of North Korean troop involvement, although unconfirmed, suggest potential escalation.
• Kharkiv Region:
  • Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying five armored vehicles.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a fully robotized attack using ground and FPV drones in the Lipstsi area.
• Zaporizhzhia Region:
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian assaults.

3. Other Key Incidents

• Missile Attacks: Russian forces continue missile strikes, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure.
• Alleged Assassination: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of a high-ranking Russian official. The investigation continues, with new details emerging about the suspect and potential accomplices.
• US Cruiser Incident: A US Navy cruiser mistakenly shot down an F/A-18 fighter jet over the Red Sea, highlighting the risks of error in complex military operations.
• Alleged Atrocities: Reports of atrocities committed by both sides continue to surface, including the alleged mass killings of civilians in Selidovo and the shooting of Ukrainian POWs.
• North Korean Involvement: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict, suffering heavy losses, continue to circulate, adding another layer of international concern.
• The 96th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade released footage of a soldier choosing to detonate a grenade rather than receive medical assistance, showing the intensity of the conflict.

Part 2: Strategic Analysis

Current Situation:

• Russian Momentum: Russian forces are maintaining offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Their advances near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk threaten to destabilize Ukrainian defenses.
• Ukrainian Strain: Ukrainian forces are facing severe challenges, including troop desertions, significant casualties, and critical supply shortages.
• Drone Warfare Dominance: Drone warfare has become a central element of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively. The introduction of new anti-drone technologies, like the Chinese AT-623, could potentially shift the balance in this domain.
• Information Warfare: Both sides are actively engaged in propaganda and information warfare, using various channels to shape narratives and influence public opinion.
• International Involvement: The conflict continues to draw international attention, with ongoing discussions about potential peacekeeping missions and continued support for Ukraine. However, internal divisions within the EU and potential shifts in US policy create uncertainty.
• Cyber Warfare: The cyberattack on Ukraine's state registry systems highlights the importance of cybersecurity in modern warfare.

Potential Scenarios:

1. Russian Breakthrough: If Russian forces manage to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Donetsk region, they could potentially advance towards key cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, further destabilizing the situation.
2. Protracted Conflict: The conflict could evolve into a protracted war of attrition, with neither side able to achieve a decisive victory in the near term.
3. Negotiated Settlement: Despite the current intensity of fighting, there is still a possibility of a negotiated settlement. However, significant obstacles remain, including the divergent positions of the parties involved and the ongoing mistrust.
4. Escalation: The conflict could escalate further, potentially involving other actors or the use of more destructive weapons. The involvement of North Korean troops, if confirmed, could lead to a wider regional conflict.

Recommendations:

1. Bolster Ukrainian Defenses: Focus on reinforcing Ukrainian defenses in the east, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk.
2. Enhance Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in drone technology, both offensive and defensive, to counter Russian drone operations.
3. Secure Supply Lines: Ensure the security of supply routes and address logistical challenges to maintain the flow of essential resources to the front lines.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Enhance air defense capabilities to counter Russian missile and drone attacks.
5. Improve Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence gathering to better anticipate Russian actions and target key assets.
6. Address Internal Issues: Tackle corruption, improve troop morale, and ensure adequate training and equipment for Ukrainian forces.
7. Maintain International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure military, economic, and humanitarian aid.
8. Civilian Protection: Implement measures to protect civilians, including evacuations and safe zones.
9. Counter Disinformation: Develop and implement effective strategies to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda.
10. Cybersecurity: Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure from cyberattacks.
11. Investigate War Crimes: Thoroughly investigate all allegations of war crimes and atrocities.
12. Monitor Regional Instability: Keep a close watch on the situation in Syria and other regional hotspots.
13. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Develop contingency plans for potential escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons.
14. Diplomatic Efforts: Explore all possible avenues for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
15. Humanitarian Aid: Increase humanitarian assistance to affected populations.
16. Sanctions and Economic Pressure: Continue to exert economic pressure on Russia through sanctions.
17. Long-Term Strategy: Develop a long-term strategy for rebuilding and stabilizing Ukraine after the conflict.
18. Monitor North Korean Involvement: Closely monitor the activities and impact of North Korean troops.
19. Address Training Issues: Investigate and address reports of poor training and morale within the Russian military.
20. Investigate Syrian Situation: Gather intelligence on the situation in Syria and assess the implications.
21. Monitor Naval Activity: Track Russian naval movements, particularly in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.
22. Address Internal Security Threats: Investigate and counter potential sabotage and espionage activities.
23. Prepare for Potential Peacekeeping Missions: Assess the feasibility and potential impact of deploying peacekeeping forces.
24. Monitor Belarusian Military Activities: Keep a close watch on Belarusian military activities.
25. Strengthen International Cooperation: Foster cooperation among allies and partners.
26. Assess the impact of sanctions on Russia and consider adjustments.
27. Monitor the economic impact of the conflict, both regionally and globally.
28. Prepare for potential refugee flows and develop plans to address the needs of displaced persons.
29. Promote diplomatic solutions while supporting Ukraine's defense.
30. Analyze the impact of new technologies, such as signal splitters, on the battlefield.
31. Address the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
32. Assess the implications of the war of attrition strategy.
33. Monitor geopolitical implications and adjust strategies accordingly.
34. Counter psychological warfare tactics employed by both sides.
35. Address the targeting of civilian infrastructure and seek accountability.

This report provides a snapshot of the situation as of December 22, 2024, 12:55 UTC. The conflict is rapidly evolving, and the information presented here may be subject to change. It is crucial to consult multiple sources and exercise critical thinking when evaluating information related to the conflict.