Strategic Overview

The "Deep Freeze" (-27°C) flipped the script on us. We assumed the cold would freeze the front lines into a stalemate, but instead, it just turned the Siverskyi Donets into a highway. The Russians are taking advantage of the ice to bypass choke points, shifting from artillery duels to high-risk infantry infiltration.

Meanwhile, the Russian rear is in chaos. Roskomnadzor blocked Telegram, and their state-sanctioned backup app, "MAX," crashed immediately. It’s a genuine command-and-control vacuum. We're watching a real-time experiment in what happens when a modern army loses its primary lateral comms.

Operational Updates

Siversk & Lyman (The River Problem) The ice is the enemy right now. Russian infantry successfully crossed the frozen Siverskyi Donets to infiltrate Zakitne. This river is supposed to be a defensive wall; right now, it's a bridge. The 81st Airmobile Brigade is running search-and-destroy ops to seal the breach, but hunting light infantry in this weather is miserable work.

Sumy (The Tunnel Ambush) Things got weird near Yablunivka. A large Russian assault group tried to infiltrate using subsurface utility pipes to dodge FPV drones. It didn't work. The 71st Jaeger Brigade caught them and hit the conduit while they were still inside. It was a tactical disaster for Moscow, but it shows just how terrified they are of the drone cover—they’d rather crawl through pipes than move in the open.

Zaporizhzhia (Fog of War) There's a lot of noise coming out of this sector. Russian channels are claiming a massive 16km breakthrough and the capture of Zaliznychne. I'm not buying the full scope of it yet—we have no visual evidence of a push that deep. They have moved about 5km west of Huliaipole, which is bad enough for the H-08 highway, but the "16km" claim feels like an information op to cover up failures elsewhere.

SAR Intelligence: The Quiet Depot

I don't like what I'm seeing at the 260th GRAU Arsenal. Activity there spiked last week and has now completely flatlined. In logistics terms, a "quiet" depot usually means the trucks have already left.

When you combine that silence with the increased activity we're seeing at Monchegorsk Air Base (where the Tu-22M3s live), the picture is pretty clear: the missiles are racked and the target data is uploaded. I'd expect a major wave against the energy grid within 48 hours.

Equipment & Losses

• Museum Pieces: We’ve got visual confirmation of Be-12 "Chaika" amphibians operating in the Black Sea. These are 1960s-era planes. The fact that Russia is dusting them off for anti-drone patrols suggests their modern fleet is stretched thin.
• New Threats: On the flip side, the VKS reportedly just took delivery of modernized Su-57s. Keep an eye out for standoff strikes in the Western districts.
• Drone War: The 118th Mechanized Brigade swatted down a "new type" of Russian strike drone. We're still waiting on the wreckage analysis to see what we're dealing with.

The Bottom Line

The next 12 hours come down to ice and electrons. The UAF has to break those crossings at Zakitne immediately, or the Siversk defensive line gets compromised. And considering the silence at the GRAU arsenal, I suspect the missiles are already airborne or close to it. Prepare for a noisy night.