(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Reporting Date: April 19, 2025 Reporting Period: April 18, 15:00 UTC – April 19, 15:00 UTC (Analysis based on consolidated intelligence reports received up to 15:02 UTC)

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I. Strategic Overview & Major Developments

A dynamic 24-hour period marked by significant diplomatic maneuvers, a major humanitarian success, and continued high-intensity fighting along the front, particularly before a contested Russian ceasefire declaration.

• MAJOR DEVELOPMENT: Russian Unilateral Easter Ceasefire Declared (Apr 19) & Immediately Contested/Rejected by Ukraine:

  • Declaration: Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, effective from 19:00 Kyiv Time (18:00 Moscow / 15:00 UTC) on Sat, Apr 19, until 01:00 Kyiv Time (00:00 Moscow / 21:00 UTC) on Mon, Apr 21 (approx. 30 hours).
  • Conditions: The ceasefire was explicitly conditional on mutual observance by Ukraine, with Russian forces ordered to halt combat but remain ready to "repel possible violations."
  • Ukrainian Rejection: Ukraine swiftly rejected the proposal as disingenuous. President Zelenskyy cited ongoing air raid alerts and, crucially, the confirmed detection of Russian Shahed-type drones in Ukrainian airspace at 17:15 Kyiv time (14:15 UTC) – a full 45 minutes before the declared ceasefire start time – as proof of Russia's lack of sincerity. Air Defence (AD) activity near Kyiv around the declared start time further undermined the premise.
  • Russian Framing: Presented as a humanitarian gesture and a test for Kyiv, potentially targeting specific international audiences (e.g., US conservatives). Met with skepticism even among Russian military bloggers.
  • Assessment: The ceasefire is considered effectively void ab initio due to confirmed Russian aerial activity immediately preceding and overlapping the declared start. Hostilities are expected to continue without interruption across the front.

• MAJOR DEVELOPMENT: Significant Prisoner of War Exchange Successfully Completed (Apr 19):

  • Confirmation: A large-scale POW exchange, mediated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was successfully completed and confirmed by both Ukraine and Russia.
  • Personnel Returned (Ukraine): 277 Ukrainian personnel returned. This includes 246 service members via direct exchange and 31 heavily wounded personnel returned outside the main framework. Returned personnel include defenders of Mariupol and members from nearly all branches of the Armed Forces and National Guard. A significant number are young personnel (born post-2000). This brings the total number of returned Ukrainian personnel (military and civilian) since Feb 2022 to 4,552.
  • Personnel Returned (Russia): Russia confirmed the return of 246 Russian personnel in the main exchange, plus 15 heavily wounded personnel. Russian personnel were reportedly transferred via Belarus.
  • Logistics: Returned Ukrainian personnel are receiving necessary medical and psychological care.

• Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations & Advances Confirmed:

  • President Zelenskyy, citing CinC Syrskyi, confirmed continued Ukrainian operational activity and position holding within Kursk Oblast.
  • Furthermore, Ukrainian advances and expansion of the zone of control within Belgorod Oblast were confirmed.
  • Contrast: This contradicts claims by Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov alleging 99.5% of Kursk Oblast was "liberated" and Ukrainian attacks in Belgorod were repelled.

• Overall Combat Intensity (Pre-Ceasefire Declaration): Remained High. 59 combat clashes were reported across the front by 16:00 Kyiv time. The Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes experienced the most significant pressure.

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II. Key Frontline Updates (as of Apr 19, 15:00 UTC)

(Focus on axes with significant activity or claims)

A. Pokrovsk Axis (Intensity: Highest)

• Overview: Remains the primary focus of Russian offensive efforts. 13 Russian attacks/attempts reported, with 6 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 Kyiv time. Ukrainian forces are holding against significant pressure.
• Russian Claims: Continued push West towards Myrnohrad asserted. Claimed advances near Malynivka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Zelene Pole (New Claim).
• Tactics: Reports indicate Russian forces using thermal cloaks for infiltration, countered by Ukrainian drone operations.

B. Toretsk Axis (Intensity: High)

• Overview: High intensity combat. 9 Russian attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces as of 16:00 Kyiv time.
• Russian Claims: Claimed liberation of Shevchenko (Kalynove district) and earlier capture of Valentynivka. Advances claimed near Sukha Balka and Kalynove (New Claim).
• CRITICAL CLAIM (Verification Required): Ukrainian sources allege Russian use of poisonous gas/chemical agent delivered via drones on this axis. (Urgent verification required).

C. Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (Intensity: High)

• Combat: 10 Russian attacks repelled, 2 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 Kyiv time. Significant Russian air and artillery activity.
• Ukrainian Claims (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi): Ukrainian forces remain active within Kursk Oblast, holding positions. Confirmed advances and expanded zone of control in Belgorod Oblast. Previous reports noted UA drone strikes targeting RU assets in Kursk.
• Russian Claims (Gerasimov): Asserted 99.5% of Kursk Oblast "liberated", clearing of Hornal monastery concluding, and repelled UA breakthrough attempts near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod).

D. Lyman Axis (Intensity: High)

• Combat: 6 Russian attacks, 3 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 Kyiv time.
• Russian Claims: Fighting reported for/advancing within Nove. Previous claims of advances near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka.

E. Kupyansk Axis (Intensity: Moderate-High)

• Combat: 5 Russian attacks, 2 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 Kyiv time.
• Russian Activity: New video released (Apr 19) claims FPV strikes destroyed Ukrainian T-72, BMP, M113, and infantry near Petropavlivka.

F. Novopavlivsk Axis (Intensity: Moderate-High)

• Combat: 7 Russian attacks repelled as of 16:00 Kyiv time. Russian forces developing offensive towards Otradne/Bohatyr.
• Russian Claims: Asserted advances East of Bohatyr, near Otradne, flanking Vilne Pole, and SW of Marfopil.

G. Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar Axis (Intensity: Moderate)

• Tactical Claim (RU): Report of RU assault group offering surrender terms to a UA soldier before destroying the position with an FPV drone near Chasiv Yar. 1 Ukrainian soldier reportedly surrendered in this incident and was allegedly part of the subsequent POW exchange (RU/UA Source Claims). Indicates continued localized pressure and specific tactical engagements.

H. Kherson Axis (Prydniprovskyi) (Intensity: Low Ground / High EW)

• Ground Combat: No Russian offensive actions reported by GSh ZSU.
• CONFIRMED UA EW SUCCESS: Video confirms Ukrainian "Spysy Odina" drone unit destroyed a third Russian Borisoglebsk-2 EW system this week in this region. This marks a significant degradation of valuable Russian EW capabilities.

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III. Capabilities & Logistics

A. Ukrainian Capabilities

• Air Defence: Demonstrated capability engaging UAV threats over Kyiv region preceding the declared ceasefire. Continued requirement to counter persistent Russian aerial threats.
• Drones/EW: Continued effective employment for reconnaissance and strike (Kursk/Belgorod ops, EW targeting). Confirmed destruction of a third high-value RU Borisoglebsk-2 EW system highlights successful counter-EW operations.
• Border Operations: Confirmed ability to conduct operations within Russian border regions (Kursk) and achieve tactical gains (Belgorod advances/expansion).
• Personnel: Successfully negotiated and executed a major POW exchange, returning 277 personnel. One soldier reportedly surrendered near Chasiv Yar (later exchanged per claims). Ongoing mobilization efforts and structural reforms continue.

B. Russian Capabilities

• Command & Control: Putin/Gerasimov meeting preceded ceasefire declaration. Orders issued, but conditionality and pre-start actions rendered the ceasefire immediately contested. Offensive posture across 11 directions reported prior to ceasefire.
• Ceasefire Posture: Declared unilaterally but conditional. Timing and pre-start actions suggest potential use as an information operation or tactical pause attempt, rather than genuine intent. Met with internal skepticism.
• Air Power / UAVs: Tactical aviation active near ceasefire start. Missile threat declared (Kyiv Oblast). Confirmed use of Shahed-type drones 45 minutes before declared ceasefire start. FPV drone use persists for tactical strikes (Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar).
• EW Losses: Confirmed loss of a third Borisoglebsk-2 EW complex in a week (Kherson) represents a significant setback.
• Personnel: Received 246 personnel (+15 wounded) in POW exchange. Captured/exchanged 1 UA soldier (Chasiv Yar). Previous reports indicated potential morale concerns.

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IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations

• Contested Ceasefire: Russia's unilateral ceasefire declaration was immediately undermined by its own pre-start aerial activity (Shaheds detected 17:15 Kyiv) and ongoing air alerts/AD engagements around Kyiv near the 19:00 Kyiv start time. This demonstrates a disregard for the declared terms and casts doubt on humanitarian claims.
• Prisoners of War: Successful major exchange resulted in the return of 277 Ukrainian personnel. This is a significant positive humanitarian development. The report of 1 UA soldier surrendering near Chasiv Yar and potentially being included in the exchange warrants attention.
• Civilian Casualties & Risk: Ongoing air raid alerts (Kyiv region, NE/E fronts) near the ceasefire start time underscore the continued high risk to civilians from potential Russian strikes. Previous reports detailed significant civilian casualties from recent RU strikes in Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, Nikopol, and Donetsk Oblast.
• Potential War Crimes / LOAC Violations:
  • CRITICAL CLAIM (Verification Required): Alleged Russian use of poisonous gas/chemical agent via drones near Toretsk.
  • Russian tactics near Chasiv Yar (offering surrender then destroying position with FPV) require scrutiny regarding treatment of personnel hors de combat.

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V. International & Political Context

• Ceasefire Diplomacy: Russia's unilateral ceasefire declaration, framed as humanitarian, was effectively rejected by Ukraine due to contradictory Russian actions (pre-start drone activity).
• POW Exchange: Successful completion of a large-scale POW exchange facilitated by UAE mediation (277 UA returned / 246+15 RU returned).
• US Policy/Talks: Reports suggest continued US efforts (Witkoff) to engage Russia on a peace framework. Previous statements from Trump advisor Kellogg reiterated opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership.
• Hungarian Policy: Reports indicate the Hungarian government is actively campaigning against Ukrainian EU membership domestically.
• Cross-Border Dynamics: Confirmed Ukrainian advances and expanded control zone in Belgorod Oblast represent a notable tactical success and challenge to Russian narratives about border security.

(End Summary)