So much for the diplomatic track. The Russian delegation packed up and left Geneva today after hitting a deadlock on territory, which pretty much confirms the Kremlin is digging in for the long haul.

But honestly? The biggest explosion wasn't on the front line. It was in the information space. Everyone is talking about that interview with former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi. He was brutally honest about early leadership failures, and naturally, Russian propaganda channels are feasting on it. It’s ugly stuff—weaponizing that kind of internal criticism could do more damage to Ukrainian unity than a lost trench.

On the ground, the weather is miserable and dangerous. In the Donbas, it’s hovering around freezing with icy rain. That sounds boring until you realize the ice grounds the FPV drones. Without that "drone shield," the infantry is effectively blind. I did see reports that the 155th Brigade managed to use Leopard tanks to repel an assault near Hryshyne, which proves heavy armor still matters when the sky is socked in.

The rest of the map is a mixed bag. Down south, the Ukrainians pulled off a surprising counter-attack near the Dnipropetrovsk border, though Russian armor is still trying to grind through the mud near Dobropillya. Up north in Kharkiv, it’s a different story—the ground is frozen solid (-5°C). That’s bad news because it turns the terrain into a highway for heavy tracks. Russia is also testing these new "Molniya-2" fixed-wing drones there that handle the wind better than quadcopters. If they move fast before the snow gets deep, that sector is going to get hot.

I’ve been looking at the satellite data on the rear logistics, too. Most of the standard artillery depots are quieting down, which usually means the shells have already been shipped out. But there’s a weird spike in activity at a naval storage base near Olenegorsk. It’s buzzing while everything else is quiet. It might be nothing, but seeing movement at a facility that handles specialized naval munitions—or worse—always makes me nervous.

On the bright side, the General Staff confirmed a kill on a Russian S-300VM system, which punches a nice hole in their air defense bubble. Russia claims they shot down over 40 Ukrainian drones last night, but they always claim high numbers.

Here is what worries me most: Geneva didn't freeze the conflict, so the weather is doing it instead. The immediate danger is that icing event in Pokrovsk. If Ukrainian drone operators can't fly, Russian armor will roll. Combine that physical vulnerability with the political fallout from the Zaluzhnyi interview, and things feel incredibly fragile right now.