Sitrep 2026-07-24 05:58:13.934597+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF deep strike confirmed at the "Aviatek" defense plant in Kirov (Kirov Oblast); OSINT channels circulated video of a "Flamingo" cruise missile launch and subsequent massive fire at the facility, located 1,250 km from the border (05:34-05:52 UTC, Exilenova+, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM).
Fires confirmed at Wildberries logistics hubs in Simferopol (Crimea), adding to previously reported strikes in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast; RF Investigative Committee opened a terrorism case regarding the Leningrad strikes (05:29-05:51 UTC, Exilenova+, Два майора, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for fires, LOW for RF narrative).
RF MoD and affiliated milbloggers claimed the "Center" grouping completed the capture of Belytske (Donetsk Oblast), a key node near Dobropillia; claim lacks independent geospatial verification (05:35 UTC, Два майора, confidence LOW).
RF airstrikes hit a Nova Poshta (New Post) logistics hub in Izium (Kharkiv Oblast) with 3 KABs, causing structural collapse and localized power outages (05:50 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence HIGH).
UAF Kharkiv OVA reported 9 civilian casualties and extensive infrastructure damage across 20 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast over the past 24 hours, utilizing a mix of KABs, Geran-2, Lancet, and FPV drones (05:42 UTC, Олег Синєгубов, confidence HIGH).
FSB claimed the detention of a woman in Moscow attempting to plant an IED under a security officer's vehicle, alleging Ukrainian intelligence involvement (05:45-05:46 UTC, ТАСС, ASTRA, confidence LOW for narrative, HIGH for detention).

Operational picture (by sector)

Weather Context: Current snapshot shows overcast conditions (92-98% cloud) in Kharkiv/Vovchansk, Luhansk/Svatove, and Kherson, with light rain expected. Partly cloudy (50-62% cloud) in Donetsk/Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis; heavy positional fighting. Change: RF "Sever" and "West" groupings claim intensified fighting in western Kupyansk, with UAF attacking from Sobolevka and Moskovka. In the Kharkiv direction, fighting continues in Kazacha Lopan, Vovchansk (Zakharovka, Ivanovka, Yurchenkovo, Bilyi Kolodiaz), and Velykyi Burluk axes. UAF repelled 11 attacks in Southern Slobozhanshchyna (Vovchansk, Vilcha, Starytsia). Krasnyi Lyman: Sticky fighting, RF fortifying (05:35-05:42 UTC, Два майора, Олег Синєгубов, confidence MEDIUM).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: RF MoD claims "Center" grouping completed capture of Belytske. Fighting continues in the broader Dobropillia direction (05:35 UTC, Два майора, confidence LOW for RF claims).
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: RF 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (East grouping) claimed FPV drone strikes on UAF personnel in Zaporizhzhia direction. RF claims restoring power in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after UAF strikes (05:30-05:35 UTC, Воин DV, Два майора, confidence LOW/MEDIUM).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: RF "Sever" grouping claims active combat in Sumy Oblast (Ulanove, Mala Slobodka, Pysarivka, Mohrytsia, Mar'ine, Nova Sich, Khoten, Prokhody). UAF counterattacks reported near Kondrativka and Pysarivka (05:35 UTC, Два майора, confidence LOW/MEDIUM).
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: UAF Air Force tracking reactive UAVs moving from Zolotonosha (Cherkasy Oblast) heading NW (05:34 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change to ground lines.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: No significant change.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: 3 civilians wounded in Aleshky, Velyki Kopani, Vynohradove (05:35 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting and RF logistical vulnerability. Change: Fire confirmed at Wildberries warehouse in Simferopol following overnight drone attacks (05:29-05:35 UTC, Exilenova+, Два майора, confidence HIGH).
RF Interior (St. Petersburg / Leningrad / Kirov / Krasnodar): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy, logistics, and defense industry. Change: Fires at Wildberries in Simferopol, St. Petersburg, Leningrad. Aviatek plant in Kirov struck. FSB detained IED suspect in Moscow (05:29-05:51 UTC, Exilenova+, Два майора, ТАСС, confidence HIGH).
Kursk / Belgorod / Bryansk Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and RF defensive posturing. Change: RF claims 2 wounded in Tolpino (Kursk), 4 in Peschanoe. Belgorod city struck by drones, >10 wounded (05:35 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Kirov Oblast: Aviatek plant struck by "Flamingo" cruise missile (or similar long-range munition), 1,250 km from border. Produces Tor SAM components and ejection seats. Massive fire/smoke confirmed (05:34-05:52 UTC, Exilenova+, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM).
- Crimea: Wildberries warehouse in Simferopol struck and burning (05:29-05:35 UTC, Exilenova+, Два майора, confidence HIGH).
- St. Petersburg / Leningrad Oblast: Wildberries hubs in Shushary and Novosaratovka (previously reported, RF confirms no casualties and opens terrorism case) (05:33-05:51 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Kharkiv Oblast: 3 KABs, 4 Geran-2, 1 Lancet, 7 Molniia, 7 FPV, 17 unknown drones used. Izium Nova Poshta hit by 3 KABs (05:42-05:50 UTC, Олег Синєгубов, РБК-Україна, confidence HIGH).
- Central Ukraine: UAF Air Force tracking reactive UAVs towards Lozova (from Donetsk) and NW from Zolotonosha (05:34-05:51 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Air Defense Activity:
- RF EW "Rubicon" claims interception of UAF long-range drones (Anubis, B-2, Zozulya, R-15, FP-2) deep inside Russia (05:35 UTC, Центр «РУБИКОН», confidence LOW/MEDIUM).
- RF MoD claims 571 UAF drones shot down overnight (05:35 UTC, Два майора, confidence LOW).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues sustained attritional assaults. "Center" grouping claims Belytske capture. "Sever" grouping active in Sumy and Kharkiv. "West" grouping claims intensified defense in Kupyansk.
RF Aerospace: Continued use of KABs and drones against civilian/logistics infrastructure (Izium, Kharkiv settlements).
RF Internal Security: FSB highlighting IED plot in Moscow to reinforce narrative of Ukrainian terrorism. Investigative Committee opening cases for Leningrad strikes.
Most Likely COA: RF will continue high-tempo assaults in Pokrovsk and Sumy/Kharkiv, leveraging KABs for rear-area degradation. RF will attempt to secure Belytske if actually captured.
Most Dangerous COA: RF retaliatory strikes on UAF energy/logistics following deep strikes on Kirov and logistics hubs.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Campaign: Successfully struck Aviatek in Kirov and Wildberries in Simferopol, expanding the deep strike campaign to Crimea and critical defense industry (05:29-05:52 UTC, Exilenova+, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM/HIGH).
Air Defense / Tracking: Actively tracking and intercepting RF aerospace threats; monitoring reactive UAV movements in central Ukraine (05:34-05:51 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Tactical Operations: Repelled 11 attacks in Southern Slobozhanshchyna. Conducting counterattacks in Sumy Oblast (Kondrativka, Pysarivka) (05:35-05:42 UTC, Два майора, Олег Синєгубов, confidence MEDIUM/HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

Belytske Capture: RF MoD and milbloggers claim capture of Belytske. Unverified by independent geospatial intelligence; likely premature or propaganda (05:35 UTC, Два майора, confidence LOW).
Zelenskyy-Trump Meeting: Rumors circulated by РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ about a meeting next week at Lindsey Graham's funeral. Highly anomalous and assessed as LOW confidence, likely reflecting unverified rumors or disinformation (05:39 UTC, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence LOW).
Moscow IED Plot: FSB/ТАСС narrative about a woman attempting IED attack on Kyiv's orders. Standard internal security/propaganda narrative (05:45-05:46 UTC, ТАСС, ASTRA, confidence LOW for narrative).
Flamingo Missile: OSINT channels claim use of "Flamingo" cruise missile for Kirov strike. Plausible but unverified weapon type (05:34-05:52 UTC, Exilenova+, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence MEDIUM).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor satellite imagery for BDA on the Aviatek plant in Kirov and the Wildberries facility in Simferopol to assess structural damage and operational disruption.
Verify RF claims of Belytske capture via high-resolution satellite imagery to confirm territorial changes near Dobropillia.
Track RF aerospace retaliation posture; the confirmed disruption of defense and logistics nodes may trigger a retaliatory strike package against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Observe the Sumy and Kharkiv axes for potential RF ground exploitation following sustained preparatory fires and assault waves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Kirov & Simferopol BDA: Acquire high-resolution satellite imagery to confirm structural damage to the Aviatek plant and Wildberries hub, assessing the operational impact on RF air defense production and logistics.
Belytske Verification: Verify RF claims of territorial gains in the Pokrovsk/Dobropillia direction using independent geospatial intelligence.
Flamingo Missile Capabilities: Confirm the use and technical specifications of the "Flamingo" cruise missile, if indeed employed in the Kirov strike.
RF Internal Security Posture: Monitor RF FSB and internal troop deployments in Moscow and border regions following the reported IED plot and deep strikes.