Sitrep 2026-07-24 05:27:16.81696+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF deep strikes confirmed at the "Aviatek" defense plant in Kirov (Kirov Oblast), producing massive smoke plumes; ASTRA geolocated the fire to the facility producing Tor SAM components and aviation parts (04:54-05:09 UTC, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
Fires confirmed at two Wildberries logistics hubs in St. Petersburg (Shushary) and Leningrad Oblast (Novosaratovka); Wildberries officially confirmed the temporary suspension of operations at both sites (05:10-05:23 UTC, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника, confidence HIGH).
UAF Air Force reported intercepting 160 of 180 RF Shahed/Gerbera/Italmas drones and 4 of 5 Kh-59/69 missiles launched overnight; 1 missile and 14 drones successfully struck 9 locations (05:10-05:15 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF Ministry of Defense claimed the interception of 571 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple Russian regions and seas (05:16-05:22 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
UAF General Staff reported 233 combat clashes over the past 24 hours, with the highest intensity (36 repelled assaults) in the Pokrovsk direction, alongside 308 RF KAB drops and 10,463 drone sorties (05:01 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

Weather Context: Current snapshot shows overcast conditions (93-99% cloud) in Kharkiv/Vovchansk, Luhansk/Svatove, and Kherson, with light rain expected. Partly cloudy (57-59% cloud) in Donetsk/Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis; heavy positional fighting. Change: RF "Grouping of Forces North" claimed advances in the Vovchansk direction (Zakharovka, Ivanovka, Yurchenkovo, Bely Kolodez) and repelling counterattacks in Kupiansk (Sobolevka, Moskovka) (05:01-05:08 UTC, 44 АК, WarGonzo, confidence LOW). UAF Air Force reported KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast (05:02 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: UAF General Staff reported 19 assaults repelled in the Sloviansk direction and 4 in the Kramatorsk direction (05:01 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: UAF reported 16 attacks repelled in the Kostiantynivka direction. RF milbloggers claimed entry into Alexeyev-Druzhkovka and advances in Krasnyi Liman (Drobyshevo, Stavky, Ozernoe) (05:01-05:08 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, WarGonzo, confidence LOW for RF claims).
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: Highest tempo of the front; UAF repelled 36 assaults near Novooleksandrivka, Rodynske, and others. RF claimed expansion of control south of Serhiivka and towards Zolotoy Kolodez (05:01-05:08 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, WarGonzo, confidence LOW for RF claims).
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: UAF repelled 12 assaults in the Huliaipole direction (Olenokostiantynivka, Koseve, etc.) and 3 in the Orikhiv direction (Shcherbakiv, Stepove, Prymorske) (05:01-05:03 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: RF claimed advances in the Sumy direction (Pisarevka, Mala Slobodka) alongside KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast (05:01-05:02 UTC, 44 АК, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence LOW for RF claims).
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: Reactive UAVs tracked moving from Dnipropetrovsk towards Poltava Oblast (Kobelyaky, Hlobyne) (04:58-05:17 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change to ground lines; RF continuing KAB and drone strikes.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: Novorossiysk and Gelendzhik (Krasnodar Krai) declared drone attack threats/alerts, indicating UAF drone activity in the Black Sea/Azov region (05:07-05:22 UTC, Оперативный штаб - Краснодарский край, confidence MEDIUM).
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting and RF logistical vulnerability. Change: Drone attack threats reported in Crimea (05:22 UTC, Оперативный штаб, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Interior (St. Petersburg / Leningrad / Kirov / Krasnodar): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy, logistics, and defense industry. Change: Confirmed fires at Aviatek plant in Kirov and Wildberries hubs in St. Petersburg (Shushary) and Leningrad Oblast (Novosaratovka). Drone alerts in Novorossiysk and Gelendzhik (04:54-05:23 UTC, ASTRA, Оперативный штаб, confidence HIGH).
Kursk / Belgorod / Bryansk Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and RF defensive posturing. Change: UAF "Kursk" Group of Forces released FPV/thermal footage of strikes on RF personnel. RF "Rubikon" unit released propaganda videos of FPV/Baba-Yaga operations in Belgorod and Donbas (05:01-05:20 UTC, Угруповання військ "Курськ", Центр «РУБИКОН», confidence MEDIUM).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Kirov Oblast: Fire confirmed at "Aviatek" defense plant (Oktyabrsky Prospekt 1A), producing Tor SAM components and aviation parts (04:54-05:09 UTC, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
- St. Petersburg / Leningrad Oblast: Fires at Wildberries logistics hubs in Shushary (St. Petersburg) and Novosaratovka (Leningrad Oblast). Operations suspended (05:10-05:23 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Nationwide: 180 Shahed/Gerbera/Italmas/Parody drones and 5 Kh-59/69 missiles launched overnight. 160 drones and 4 missiles intercepted. 1 missile and 14 drones hit 9 locations (05:10-05:15 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- Poltava / Dnipropetrovsk: Reactive UAVs tracked moving towards Kobelyaky and Hlobyne (04:58-05:17 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Air Defense Activity:
- RF MoD claimed interception of 571 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions and seas (05:16-05:22 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues sustained high-tempo attritional assaults across the eastern and southern fronts, peaking in the Pokrovsk direction (36 assaults). RF utilizes massive KAB and drone saturation to degrade UAF defensive positions.
RF Aerospace: Launched a massive nocturnal drone swarm (180 UAVs) alongside guided aviation missiles, demonstrating continued capacity for saturation attacks aimed at overwhelming UAF air defenses.
Information Operations: RF milbloggers (44 АК, WarGonzo) are pushing unverified claims of significant territorial gains in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk (e.g., Alexeyev-Druzhkovka, Belitske) to maintain an offensive narrative.
Most Likely COA: RF will maintain intense localized assaults in Pokrovsk, Huliaipole, and Kostiantynivka directions, supported by massed KAB and drone strikes. RF will likely attempt to restore air defense coverage around critical interior logistics and defense nodes following the Kirov and St. Petersburg strikes.
Most Dangerous COA: RF could launch a retaliatory ballistic missile or massed drone strike against Ukrainian energy, command, or logistics infrastructure in response to the successful deep strikes on the Aviatek plant and Wildberries hubs.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Campaign: Successfully targeted and damaged critical RF defense industry (Aviatek in Kirov) and dual-use logistics nodes (Wildberries in St. Petersburg/Leningrad), disrupting supply chains and production capabilities (04:54-05:23 UTC, ASTRA, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
Air Defense: Maintained high interception rates (88% of drones, 80% of missiles) against a massive nocturnal aerospace attack, demonstrating robust integration of mobile fire groups, EW, and SAMs (05:10-05:15 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Tactical Operations: Repelled 233 RF assaults across the front line, with notable defensive successes in Pokrovsk (36 repelled) and Huliaipole (12 repelled). UAF "Kursk" Group continues active drone operations against RF personnel in border regions (05:01 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Угруповання військ "Курськ", confidence HIGH/MEDIUM).

Information environment / disinformation

Zelenskyy US Visit / Graham Funeral: Оперативний ЗСУ claimed President Zelenskyy will visit the US on July 28 to meet Donald Trump and attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham. This claim is highly anomalous and assessed as LOW confidence, likely reflecting unverified rumors, simulation, or disinformation (05:10 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence LOW).
RF War Crimes Probe: SK Chairman Bastyrykin announced a "large-scale" investigation into Ukraine's use of prohibited warfare methods and a completed "genocide" case against UAF leadership being reviewed by the DNR Supreme Court. Assessed as Russian legal/information warfare narrative (05:21 UTC, ТАСС, confidence LOW).
RF Territorial Claims: Unverified claims by RF milbloggers of capturing Belitske, advancing in Sumy/Kharkiv, and destroying specific Western-supplied equipment (Leopard 1A5, Rada radar) lack independent geospatial corroboration (05:01-05:08 UTC, 44 АК, WarGonzo, confidence LOW).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor satellite imagery for Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on the Aviatek plant in Kirov and the Wildberries facilities in St. Petersburg/Leningrad Oblast to assess structural damage and operational disruption.
Track RF aerospace retaliation posture; the confirmed disruption of defense and logistics nodes may trigger a retaliatory strike package against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Monitor the 9 locations where RF drones/missiles successfully struck overnight to assess damage and casualties.
Observe the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole axes for potential RF ground exploitation following sustained preparatory fires and assault waves.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Kirov & St. Petersburg BDA: Acquire high-resolution satellite imagery to confirm structural damage to the Aviatek plant and Wildberries hubs, assessing the operational impact on RF air defense production and logistics.
RF Retaliation Posture: Monitor RF aerospace and missile units for signs of preparation for retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian energy or command nodes.
Night Strike Damage Assessment: Identify and assess damage at the 9 locations where RF drones/missiles penetrated air defenses overnight.
Frontline Geospatial Verification: Verify RF claims of territorial gains in the Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Sumy/Kharkiv directions using independent geospatial intelligence.