Sitrep 2026-07-24 03:57:44.772013+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF deep strikes confirmed against Wildberries logistics hubs in Shushary (St. Petersburg) and Novosaratovka/Utkina Zavod (Leningrad Oblast), causing massive fires and suspension of operations; 3 personnel injured in Novosaratovka (03:41-03:48 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
RF authorities claimed 59 UAVs were shot down in Leningrad Oblast and acknowledged drone strikes on a poultry farm warehouse in Sinavyne (Leningrad Oblast), resulting in structural collapse (03:23-03:47 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for RF claims).
Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg) experienced significant disruptions with ~50 delayed flights and 15 diverted to alternate airfields due to the aerospace threat (03:27 UTC, ASTRA, confidence HIGH).
UAF Air Force tracked multiple RF reactive UAVs approaching from the Black Sea towards southern Odesa Oblast, and from the north towards Kyiv (Velyka Dymerka, Brovary) and Chernihiv (Lyubech, Slavutych) oblasts, triggering an air raid alarm in Kyiv (03:25-03:54 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, КМВА, confidence HIGH).
UAF General Staff reported daily RF losses of 1,410 personnel, 76 artillery systems, 1,652 UAVs, and 544 vehicles for the past 24 hours (03:36-03:51 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM for official claims).
US Senate reportedly preparing to vote on a new sanctions package against RF next week, while Donald Trump claimed frozen Iranian assets would be used to compensate US ships damaged by Iranian attacks (03:29-03:30 UTC, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM for diplomatic/political claims).

Operational picture (by sector)

Weather Context: Current snapshot (03:45 UTC) shows light rain and 100% cloud cover in Kharkiv/Vovchansk (15.5C), and overcast conditions in Luhansk/Svatove (17.0C, 96% cloud) and Kherson (17.0C, 99% cloud), degrading optical ISR. Partly cloudy in Donetsk/Pokrovsk (16.6C, 75% cloud) and Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv (17.9C, 55% cloud).

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis; heavy positional fighting. Change: No significant change. Overcast and light rain continue to degrade optical ISR.
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: No significant change.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: No significant change.
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: RF reactive UAVs tracked in Chernihiv Oblast (Lyubech, Slavutych) heading south (03:27 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: No significant change.
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: RF reactive UAVs tracked from the Black Sea towards southern Odesa Oblast (03:25 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting and RF logistical vulnerability. Change: No significant change.
RF Interior (St. Petersburg / Leningrad / Moscow / etc.): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy and logistics. Change: Major disruption confirmed. Fires at Wildberries hubs in Shushary and Novosaratovka/Utkina Zavod; operations suspended. Pulkovo airport delayed ~50 flights. RF claimed 59 UAVs shot down in Leningrad Oblast. Drone strike damaged poultry farm warehouse in Sinavyne (03:23-03:48 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
Kursk / Bryansk / Belgorod Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and RF defensive posturing. Change: No significant change.
South Caucasus (Abkhazia/Georgia): Assessed state: Regional infrastructure vulnerability. Change: No significant change.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- St. Petersburg / Leningrad Oblast: Confirmed strikes on Wildberries logistics hubs in Shushary (106,000 m²) and Novosaratovka/Utkina Zavod (210,000 m²). Fires confirmed, operations suspended. 3 personnel injured in Novosaratovka. FP-1 drones visually recorded over the targets. Pulkovo airport delayed ~50 flights, 15 diverted. Note: An Exilenova+ satellite image claimed the hubs were "destroyed," but visual inspection of the image showed no obvious signs of destruction; this specific claim is UNCONFIRMED (LOW confidence) (03:23-03:52 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH for fires and disruption, LOW for "destroyed" satellite claim).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Odesa / Chernihiv / Kyiv Oblasts: UAF Air Force tracked reactive UAVs from the Black Sea towards southern Odesa Oblast, and from the north towards Chernihiv (Lyubech, Slavutych) and Kyiv (Velyka Dymerka, Brovary) oblasts. Air raid alarm triggered in Kyiv (03:25-03:54 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, КМВА, confidence HIGH).
Air Defense Activity:
- RF Leningrad Oblast: Governor Drozdenko claimed 59 UAVs were shot down. Acknowledged strikes on Wildberries facilities and a poultry farm warehouse in Sinavyne, resulting in structural collapse (03:23-03:47 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for RF claims).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues attritional assaults along the eastern and southern axes, with no significant territorial changes verified this cycle.
RF Aerospace: Expanded reactive UAV probing towards southern Odesa (from the Black Sea) and central/northern Ukraine (Kyiv, Chernihiv), indicating a sustained effort to test and stretch Ukrainian air defense coverage.
Most Likely COA: RF will continue localized attritional assaults and aerospace harassment. In response to the confirmed disruption of St. Petersburg logistics, RF will likely recalibrate air defense assets around key rear-area e-commerce hubs and may attempt retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian energy or logistics nodes.
Most Dangerous COA: RF could escalate aerospace strikes in retaliation for the St. Petersburg logistics disruption, potentially utilizing ballistic missiles or massed drone swarms against Ukrainian central command or energy infrastructure, capitalizing on the expanded reactive UAV probing in the Kyiv-Cherkasy-Odesa axes.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Campaign: UAF successfully executed a coordinated strike campaign against major RF dual-use e-commerce logistics nodes (Wildberries) in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast. The confirmed fires and subsequent flight cancellations at Pulkovo airport demonstrate a deliberate strategy to degrade RF rear-area supply chains and disrupt civilian-military logistics (03:23-03:52 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
Tactical Operations: UAF Air Force maintained persistent tracking and early warning for incoming RF reactive UAVs across multiple oblasts (Odesa, Chernihiv, Kyiv), successfully identifying new threat vectors and triggering timely air raid alarms (03:25-03:54 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, КМВА, confidence HIGH).
Loss Reporting: UAF General Staff reported daily RF losses of 1,410 personnel, 76 artillery systems, 1,652 UAVs, and 544 vehicles for the past 24 hours (03:36-03:51 UTC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM for official claims).

Information environment / disinformation

St. Petersburg Infrastructure Framing: RF officials explicitly acknowledged UAV attacks on "civilian infrastructure" (Wildberries hubs, poultry farm). This framing attempts to obscure the dual-use military logistics nature of the targeted facilities, aiming to garner domestic sympathy and justify retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
UAF Sarcastic Framing: Ukrainian OSINT channels (e.g., Оперативний ЗСУ) use sarcastic captions ("wild berry volcano") to describe burning RF industrial facilities, aiming to boost domestic morale and mock RF logistical vulnerabilities.
Exilenova+ Satellite Discrepancy: An Exilenova+ post featured a satellite image claiming two Wildberries hubs were "destroyed," but visual inspection of the image showed no obvious signs of destruction. This highlights the need for independent BDA to verify actual structural damage versus propaganda exaggeration.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor satellite imagery for Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on the Shushary and Utkina Zavod logistics hubs to determine the extent of structural damage and operational suspension.
Track RF aerospace retaliation posture; the confirmed disruption of St. Petersburg logistics and Pulkovo airport may trigger a retaliatory strike package against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Monitor RF reactive UAV trajectories towards southern Odesa, Kyiv, and Chernihiv to determine if this represents a sustained shift in targeting priority towards central and southern Ukrainian infrastructure.
Await official RF statements regarding the specific extent of damage to the Sinavyne poultry farm and the status of flight operations at Pulkovo airport.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

St. Petersburg & Leningrad BDA: Acquire high-resolution satellite imagery to confirm the exact structural damage to the Wildberries facilities in Shushary and Novosaratovka/Utkina Zavod, and the Sinavyne poultry farm, to assess the operational impact on RF supply chains.
Pulkovo Airport Impact: Verify the current operational status of Pulkovo airport, including the number of diverted flights and duration of flight restrictions, to quantify the disruption to RF domestic logistics.
Central/Southern Ukraine Threat Tracking: Monitor southern Odesa, Kyiv, and Chernihiv oblasts for actual impacts, intercepts, or damage resulting from the tracked RF reactive UAVs to assess the effectiveness of regional air defenses.
RF Losses Verification: Cross-reference UAF General Staff daily loss claims (+1,410 personnel) with independent OSINT and Western intelligence estimates to validate the scale of recent engagements and overall RF force degradation.