Sitrep 2026-07-24 03:27:26.584583+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

RF St. Petersburg Governor Beglov confirmed UAV attacks struck "civilian infrastructure" on Moskovsky Highway and announced an operational headquarters is coordinating the response, while Leningrad Oblast authorities claimed 59 UAVs were shot down and the aerial threat was lifted (03:02-03:16 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for RF acknowledgment and intercept claims).
Visual evidence and OSINT reports confirm massive fires at multiple Wildberries (WB) logistics facilities in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast, specifically identifying a second warehouse in Shushary, the Utkina Zavod industrial zone, and Novosaratovka, causing significant flight delays at Pulkovo airport (03:01-03:18 UTC, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for fires and airport disruption, MEDIUM for specific WB attribution).
UAF Air Force tracked multiple RF reactive UAVs expanding their threat axis, including a drone heading towards Boryspil (Kyiv Oblast) from Cherkasy Oblast, another towards Zolotonosha (Cherkasy Oblast), and reactive UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading southwest (03:08-03:18 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF forces claimed a localized breakthrough west of Novoselivka, capturing 1.5 square kilometers, and highlighted drone operations by the 69th Separate Cover Brigade (35th Army) in the Zaporizhzhia direction, alongside claimed FAB-UMPK strikes near Kupino and Makarovo (03:00-03:07 UTC, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, confidence LOW for territorial gains, MEDIUM for airstrike claims).
Temporary flight restrictions were imposed at Ulyanovsk airport, indicating ongoing or anticipated aerospace threats in the region following previous strikes on local energy infrastructure (03:10 UTC, Треш Ульяновск, confidence HIGH for restrictions).

Operational picture (by sector)

Weather Context: Current snapshot (03:15 UTC) shows overcast conditions and 100% cloud cover in Kharkiv/Vovchansk (15.8C) and Luhansk/Svatove (16.7C, light rain), severely degrading optical ISR. Partly cloudy in Donetsk/Pokrovsk (16.0C, 77% cloud) and Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv (17.1C, 75% cloud). Overcast in Kherson (17.0C, 98% cloud).

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis; heavy positional fighting. Change: RF claimed FAB-UMPK strikes on UAF positions in forest plantations near Kupino (Kupiansk district) and Makarovo (Zolochiv district). Overcast conditions and light rain continue to degrade optical ISR (03:07 UTC, Colonelcassad, confidence MEDIUM for strike claims).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: No significant change.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: RF claimed a 1.5 sq km breakthrough west of Novoselivka by "Amur" forces and highlighted drone strikes by the 69th Separate Cover Brigade (35th Army, Vostok grouping) in the Zaporizhzhia direction (03:00 UTC, Воин DV, confidence LOW for breakthrough, MEDIUM for drone activity).
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: RF reactive UAVs tracked in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading southwest (03:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: RF reactive UAV tracked from Cherkasy Oblast towards Boryspil (Kyiv Oblast), and another UAV towards Zolotonosha (Cherkasy Oblast), indicating continued probing of central Ukrainian air defenses (03:08-03:18 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change this cycle.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: No significant change.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting and RF logistical vulnerability. Change: No significant change.
RF Interior (St. Petersburg / Leningrad / Moscow / etc.): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy and logistics. Change: Major disruption confirmed. Fires at WB warehouses in Shushary, Utkina Zavod, and Novosaratovka. Pulkovo airport delayed ~50 flights. 59 UAVs claimed shot down in Leningrad Oblast. FP-1 drone visually spotted over St. Petersburg. Ulyanovsk airport under temporary flight restrictions (03:01-03:18 UTC, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Треш Ульяновск, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH for fires and airport disruptions).
Kursk / Bryansk / Belgorod Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and RF defensive posturing. Change: No significant change.
South Caucasus (Abkhazia/Georgia): Assessed state: Regional infrastructure vulnerability. Change: No significant change.

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- St. Petersburg / Leningrad Oblast: Confirmed massive fires at multiple Wildberries (WB) logistics facilities, including a second warehouse in Shushary, the Utkina Zavod industrial zone, and Novosaratovka. Visuals show extensive smoke and flames. Pulkovo airport experienced significant disruptions with ~50 delayed flights and 15 diverted aircraft. An FP-1 drone was visually recorded over St. Petersburg alongside an RF fighter jet (03:01-03:18 UTC, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH for fires and airspace disruption, MEDIUM for specific WB tenant damage).
- Ulyanovsk Oblast: Temporary flight restrictions imposed at Ulyanovsk airport, likely in response to ongoing aerospace threats following recent strikes on local fuel infrastructure (03:10 UTC, Треш Ульяновск, confidence HIGH for restrictions).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Kyiv / Cherkasy / Chernihiv Oblasts: UAF Air Force tracked a reactive UAV heading towards Boryspil (Kyiv Oblast) from Cherkasy Oblast, a UAV towards Zolotonosha (Cherkasy Oblast), and reactive UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading southwest (03:08-03:18 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- Kharkiv / Zaporizhzhia Oblasts: RF claimed FAB-UMPK strikes on UAF positions near Kupino and Makarovo, and drone strikes by the 69th Separate Cover Brigade in the Zaporizhzhia direction (03:00-03:07 UTC, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, confidence MEDIUM).
Air Defense Activity:
- RF Leningrad Oblast: Governor and local authorities claimed 59 UAVs were shot down and the aerial threat was lifted, while St. Petersburg Governor Beglov acknowledged strikes on "civilian infrastructure" on Moskovsky Highway (03:02-03:16 UTC, ASTRA, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for RF claims and acknowledgments).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues to claim localized tactical successes, such as the unverified 1.5 sq km breakthrough west of Novoselivka, and utilizes drone warfare (e.g., 69th Separate Cover Brigade) to harass UAF positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
RF Aerospace: Expanded reactive UAV probing into central Ukraine, specifically targeting the Kyiv-Cherkasy axis (Boryspil, Zolotonosha) and northern Chernihiv. Continued use of FAB-UMPKs in the Kupiansk sector.
Most Likely COA: RF will continue localized attritional assaults and aerospace harassment. In response to the confirmed disruption of St. Petersburg logistics and airspace, RF will likely recalibrate air defense assets around key rear-area e-commerce hubs and may attempt retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian energy or logistics nodes.
Most Dangerous COA: RF could escalate aerospace strikes in retaliation for the St. Petersburg logistics disruption, potentially utilizing ballistic missiles or massed drone swarms against Ukrainian central command or energy infrastructure, capitalizing on the expanded reactive UAV probing in the Kyiv-Cherkasy axis.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Deep Strike Campaign: UAF successfully executed a coordinated strike campaign against major RF dual-use e-commerce logistics nodes in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast (Shushary, Utkina Zavod, Novosaratovka). The confirmed fires and subsequent flight cancellations at Pulkovo airport demonstrate a deliberate strategy to degrade RF rear-area supply chains and disrupt civilian-military logistics (03:01-03:18 UTC, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence HIGH).
Tactical Operations: UAF Air Force maintained persistent tracking and early warning for incoming RF reactive UAVs across multiple oblasts, successfully identifying new threat vectors towards Boryspil, Zolotonosha, and northern Chernihiv (03:08-03:18 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

St. Petersburg Infrastructure Framing: RF Governor Beglov explicitly acknowledged UAV attacks on "civilian infrastructure" on Moskovsky Highway. This framing attempts to obscure the dual-use military logistics nature of the targeted Wildberries hubs, aiming to garner domestic sympathy and justify retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
RF Territorial Claims: RF milbloggers (e.g., Воин DV) claim a 1.5 sq km breakthrough west of Novoselivka and mass UAF surrenders. These claims lack independent geospatial verification and employ emotional psychological warfare tactics to project momentum and demoralize defenders.
UAF Sarcastic Framing: Ukrainian OSINT channels (e.g., Оперативний ЗСУ) use sarcastic captions ("masturbators and drone components") to describe burning RF industrial facilities, aiming to boost domestic morale and mock RF logistical vulnerabilities.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor satellite imagery for Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on the Shushary, Utkina Zavod, and Novosaratovka logistics hubs to determine the extent of structural damage and operational suspension.
Track RF aerospace retaliation posture; the confirmed disruption of St. Petersburg logistics and Pulkovo airport may trigger a retaliatory strike package against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Monitor RF reactive UAV trajectories towards Boryspil, Zolotonosha, and Chernihiv to determine if this represents a sustained shift in targeting priority towards central Ukrainian infrastructure.
Await official RF statements regarding the specific extent of damage to the MLP Utkina Zavod park and the status of flight operations at Pulkovo and Ulyanovsk airports.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

St. Petersburg & Leningrad BDA: Acquire high-resolution satellite imagery to confirm the exact structural damage to the Wildberries facilities in Shushary, Utkina Zavod, and Novosaratovka, and assess the operational impact on RF supply chains.
Pulkovo & Ulyanovsk Airport Impact: Verify the current operational status of Pulkovo and Ulyanovsk airports, including the number of diverted flights and duration of flight restrictions, to quantify the disruption to RF domestic logistics.
Central Ukraine Threat Tracking: Monitor Boryspil, Zolotonosha, and northern Chernihiv for actual impacts, intercepts, or damage resulting from the tracked RF reactive UAVs to assess the effectiveness of regional air defenses.
Novoselivka Verification: Geospatial confirmation of whether RF forces have actually secured the claimed 1.5 sq km breakthrough west of Novoselivka or if the claim is premature propaganda.