Sitrep 2026-07-24 00:26:46.202468+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF drone strikes targeted Leningrad Oblast, prompting RF air defense engagements and claims of 11 UAVs destroyed, with visual evidence of multiple intercepts over the region (00:16 UTC, TASS; 00:19-00:21 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
RF launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting northern Kharkiv Oblast, expanding the recent aerospace pressure beyond Sumy (00:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Visual evidence emerged showing a fire at a Wildberries warehouse in Tver Oblast, corroborating earlier unverified claims of an attack on the logistics facility (23:56 UTC, SOTA, confidence MEDIUM).
Power supply was restored in Abkhazia following the earlier blackout caused by an accident at the Inguri HPP (00:20 UTC, TASS, confidence HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

Weather Context: Light rain and overcast conditions across the northern and eastern frontline (Kharkiv 16.1C, Luhansk 16.7C, Donetsk 16.4C), with light rain forecasted in Luhansk (precip 1.5mm) and overcast in Donetsk. Overcast in the south (Zaporizhzhia 17.5C), light rain in Kherson (17.6C). Precipitation and cloud cover continue to degrade optical ISR.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis; heavy positional fighting. Change: RF launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting northern Kharkiv Oblast (00:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: No significant change.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: No significant change.
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: No significant change.
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: No significant change.
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: No significant change.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting and RF logistical vulnerability. Change: No significant change.
RF Interior (Belgorod / Krasnodar / Tver / Leningrad / etc.): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy and logistics. Change: Visual evidence confirms a fire at a Wildberries warehouse in Tver Oblast (23:56 UTC, SOTA, confidence MEDIUM). UAF drone strikes targeted Leningrad Oblast, prompting widespread air defense engagements and claims of 11 UAVs destroyed (00:16 UTC, TASS; 00:19-00:21 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH for AD activity).
Kursk / Bryansk / Belgorod Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and RF defensive posturing. Change: No significant change.
South Caucasus (Abkhazia/Georgia): Assessed state: Regional infrastructure vulnerability. Change: Power supply restored in Abkhazia following the Inguri HPP accident (00:20 UTC, TASS, confidence HIGH).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Tver Oblast: Visual evidence shows a fire at a Wildberries warehouse, corroborating earlier reports of an attack on the logistics hub (23:56 UTC, SOTA, confidence MEDIUM for fire, LOW for attack attribution).
- Leningrad Oblast: UAF reportedly launched drone strikes targeting the region. Visuals show multiple air defense intercepts (00:19-00:21 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Northern Kharkiv Oblast: RF launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the region (00:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Air Defense Activity:
- Leningrad Oblast: RF authorities claim 11 UAVs were destroyed over the region. Multiple visual intercepts observed (00:16 UTC, TASS; 00:19-00:21 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH for AD activity, MEDIUM for UAV count).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues sustained attritional pressure across the eastern and southern fronts.
RF Aerospace: RF expanded its KAB strike campaign to northern Kharkiv Oblast, maintaining high-tempo aerospace pressure on frontline and rear areas (00:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF Air Defense Posture: Elevated air defense activity in Leningrad Oblast indicates UAF deep strikes are successfully forcing RF to commit air defense assets to protect northwestern logistical and energy nodes (00:16 UTC, TASS; 00:19-00:21 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence HIGH).
Most Likely COA: RF will continue its aerospace saturation campaign using KABs against frontline urban centers, while UAF will persist in targeting RF logistics (Wildberries) and energy nodes deep inside RF territory, including northwestern regions.
Most Dangerous COA: A coordinated RF aerospace strike combining ballistic missiles and UAVs could overwhelm UAF air defenses, causing severe infrastructure damage and casualties.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical Operations: UAF Air Force tracking and reporting RF aerospace threats, including KAB strikes on northern Kharkiv Oblast (00:09 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Deep Strike Campaign: UAF continuing its asymmetric deep strike campaign, targeting logistics hubs in Tver Oblast and expanding strikes to Leningrad Oblast, disrupting RF supply chains and forcing air defense commitments (23:56 UTC, SOTA; 00:19-00:21 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).

Information environment / disinformation

Leningrad Strike Narratives: Exilenova+ and TASS report air defense activity in Leningrad Oblast. Visuals confirm intercepts, but the exact nature of the threat (UAV vs missile) and the success rate remain partially unverified beyond official claims (00:16 UTC, TASS; 00:19-00:21 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
Geopolitical Disinformation: RBC-Ukraine circulated a screenshot claiming CENTCOM initiated a 13th night of strikes on Iran, dated "Jul 24, 2026". The future date and lack of corroborating official sources strongly indicate this is a fabricated or spoofed narrative (00:19 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence LOW).
Tariff Narratives: RBC-Ukraine also reported on new US global tariffs under the Trump administration. While reflecting broader geopolitical economic policies, it requires verification through official US government channels to confirm implementation details (00:09 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence LOW).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor satellite imagery for damage assessment at the Wildberries facility in Tver Oblast and any potential damage in Leningrad Oblast.
Track the continuation of RF aerospace strikes, particularly the expansion of KAB usage into Kharkiv Oblast.
Watch for further UAF deep strikes on RF logistics and energy hubs in northwestern RF territory, given the apparent pattern of targeting Wildberries facilities and Leningrad infrastructure.
Assess the stability of the power grid in the South Caucasus following the restoration of power in Abkhazia.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Tver & Leningrad Strike Verification: Obtain satellite imagery or frontline OSINT to confirm the exact location, target, and extent of damage in Tver and Leningrad Oblasts.
Kharkiv KAB Damage: Assess any structural damage or casualties resulting from the RF guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes on northern Kharkiv Oblast.
RF Air Defense Deployment: Monitor RF air defense asset relocations in response to UAF deep strikes in Leningrad and Tver Oblasts.
Disinformation Tracking: Investigate the origin of the future-dated CENTCOM strike narrative to identify coordinated information warfare campaigns.