Sitrep 2026-07-23 23:56:37.090969+00

Situation Update (UTC)

Key updates since last sitrep

UAF drone strikes reported targeting Tver Oblast, with visual evidence of air defense activity and unverified claims of a fire at a Wildberries (ВБ) facility (23:28 UTC, Exilenova+; 23:47 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM for attack, LOW for specific target).
RF launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast (23:45 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF sources confirm the earlier evacuation of the Wildberries sorting center in Simferopol, Crimea, was a security measure amid broader UAV raids across multiple regions, including missile alerts in LPR (23:37 UTC, Два майора, confidence HIGH for evacuation/alerts).
Widespread power disruptions reported in the South Caucasus, with electricity returning to Georgia after a massive outage, and an accident at the Inguri HPP causing a blackout in Abkhazia (23:47 UTC, ТАСС; 23:53 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH).

Operational picture (by sector)

Weather Context: Light rain and overcast conditions across the northern and eastern frontline (Kharkiv 16.3C, Luhansk 16.8C, Donetsk 16.5C), with light rain forecasted in Luhansk (precip 1.9mm) and Donetsk (precip 1.4mm). Partly cloudy in the south (Zaporizhzhia 17.6C), light rain in Kherson (17.7C, precip 2.2mm). Precipitation and cloud cover continue to degrade optical ISR.

Kupiansk / Lyman / Kharkiv: Assessed state: RF exploiting the Vovchansk/Burluk axis; heavy positional fighting. Change: No significant change.
Siversk / Sloviansk / Kramatorsk: Assessed state: High-tempo RF attritional assaults. Change: No significant change.
Chasiv Yar / Kostiantynivka / Toretsk: Assessed state: Sustained RF pressure. Change: No significant change.
Pokrovsk / Dobropillia / Druzhkivka: Assessed state: RF actively concentrating assault infantry and armor. Change: No significant change.
Novopavlivka / Velyka Novosilka / Huliaipole / Orikhiv / Primorsky: Assessed state: RF conducting localized assaults and drone warfare. Change: No significant change.
Sumy / Chernihiv / Northern Border areas: Assessed state: RF cross-border strikes and localized ground pressure. Change: RF launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast (23:45 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Dnipropetrovsk / Central Rear: Assessed state: Persistent RF aerospace threats. Change: No significant change.
Zaporizhzhia: Assessed state: RF aerospace targeting and ground pressure. Change: No significant change.
Odesa / Mykolaiv / Black Sea: Assessed state: RF maritime and port interdiction. Change: No significant change.
Kherson / Southern Rear: Assessed state: Dnieper River cross-fire and persistent RF drone threats. Change: No significant change.
Crimea / Southern Rear / Land Bridge: Assessed state: UAF deep strike targeting and RF logistical vulnerability. Change: RF sources confirm the Wildberries sorting center in Simferopol was evacuated due to security requirements amid ongoing UAV raids and missile alerts in LPR (23:37 UTC, Два майора, confidence HIGH).
RF Interior (Belgorod / Krasnodar / etc.): Assessed state: UAF deep strikes on energy and logistics. Change: UAF drone strikes reported in Tver Oblast, with air defense activity observed and unverified claims of a fire at a Wildberries (ВБ) facility (23:28 UTC, Exilenova+; 23:47 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM for attack, LOW for target).
Kursk / Bryansk / Belgorod Sectors (RF Territory): Assessed state: UAF cross-border strikes and RF defensive posturing. Change: No significant change.
South Caucasus (Abkhazia/Georgia): Assessed state: Regional infrastructure vulnerability. Change: Power returning to Georgia after a massive outage; Abkhazia experiencing a blackout due to an accident at the Inguri HPP (23:47 UTC, ТАСС; 23:53 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH).

Deep strikes & air defense

UAF Deep/Maritime Strikes:
- Tver Oblast: UAF reportedly launched a massive drone attack targeting the region. Visuals show distant air defense engagements. Unverified claims indicate a fire at a Wildberries (ВБ) facility (23:28 UTC, Exilenova+; 23:47 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM for attack, LOW for specific target).
- Crimea: Contextual update confirms the Simferopol Wildberries facility evacuation was a security measure amid ongoing UAV raids (23:37 UTC, Два майора, confidence HIGH).
RF Aerospace & Drone Campaign:
- Sumy Oblast: RF launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the region (23:45 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
- Broader UAV Campaign: RF sources note widespread UAV raids across multiple regions, including missile alerts in LPR (23:37 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).
Air Defense Activity: Air defense engagements observed over Tver Oblast during the reported drone attack (23:28 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

RF Ground Operations: RF continues sustained attritional pressure across the eastern and southern fronts.
RF Aerospace: RF is utilizing KABs against Sumy Oblast and maintaining a high tempo of UAV and missile strikes across multiple Ukrainian regions, including LPR (23:37 UTC, Два майора; 23:45 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
RF Logistics & Infrastructure: RF logistics hubs, such as Wildberries facilities in Crimea and Tver Oblast, remain primary targets for UAF deep strikes, forcing evacuations and causing disruptions (23:37 UTC, Два майора; 23:28 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence MEDIUM).
Most Likely COA: RF will continue its aerospace saturation campaign using KABs and UAVs against frontline and rear areas, while UAF will persist in targeting RF logistics and energy nodes deep inside RF territory.
Most Dangerous COA: A coordinated RF aerospace strike combining ballistic missiles and UAVs could overwhelm UAF air defenses, causing severe infrastructure damage and casualties, as warned in previous intelligence assessments.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical Operations: UAF Air Force tracking and reporting RF aerospace threats, including KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast (23:45 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, confidence HIGH).
Deep Strike Campaign: UAF continuing its asymmetric deep strike campaign, targeting logistics hubs in Tver Oblast and Crimea, disrupting RF supply chains and forcing facility evacuations (23:28 UTC, Exilenova+; 23:37 UTC, Два майора, confidence MEDIUM).

Information environment / disinformation

Tver Strike Narratives: Exilenova+ circulated visuals of air defense activity over Tver, claiming a strike on a Wildberries hub, followed by a photo claiming a fire at "ВБ" (Wildberries, though one automated analysis mistranslated this as VTB Bank). The specific target and extent of damage remain unverified and should be treated with caution until independent geolocation is available (23:28 UTC, Exilenova+; 23:47 UTC, Exilenova+, confidence LOW for specific target).
Geopolitical Narratives: ТАСС published political commentary criticizing UAF leadership to justify the "SVO" (23:45 UTC, ТАСС). RF information operations may attempt to leverage regional infrastructure issues, though the Abkhazia/Georgia power outages appear to be genuine technical failures rather than direct kinetic attacks (23:47 UTC, ТАСС; 23:53 UTC, ТАСС, confidence HIGH for outages).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Monitor satellite imagery for damage assessment at the reported Wildberries facility in Tver Oblast.
Track the continuation of RF aerospace strikes, particularly the use of KABs against Sumy and other frontline regions.
Assess the stability of the power grid in the South Caucasus (Georgia and Abkhazia) following the recent outages.
Watch for further UAF deep strikes on RF logistics hubs, given the apparent pattern of targeting Wildberries facilities.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Tver Strike Verification: Obtain satellite imagery or frontline OSINT to confirm the exact location, target, and extent of damage in Tver Oblast.
Sumy KAB Damage: Assess any structural damage or casualties resulting from the RF guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes on Sumy Oblast.
South Caucasus Power Grid: Determine the root cause of the massive power outage in Georgia and the Inguri HPP accident in Abkhazia to rule out covert sabotage or cyber operations.
RF Aerospace Posture: Monitor RF airbases and launch sites for preparation of further massed UAV or ballistic missile salvos against Ukraine.