UAF Command Disruption: Air Force Logistics Commander Detained (1622Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): A Ukrainian court has ordered 60 days of detention for Andriy Ukrainets, Commander of Logistics of the Air Force, with bail set at 7 million UAH. This follows an investigation into unspecified preventive measures.
UAF Tactical Development: FP-7 Ballistic Missile Testing (1631Z, Tsaplienko/RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Video evidence released by "Fire Point" allegedly shows the first test launch of a new Ukrainian ballistic missile, the FP-7. Performance specifications have been stated but not independently verified.
RU Defense Corruption: Readovka Founder Arrested (1625Z, ASTRA/TASS, HIGH): Alexey Kostylev, founder of the pro-Kremlin outlet Readovka, has been arrested for embezzling 1 billion rubles intended for UAV supplies for the RU MoD.
Kinetic Activity: Heavy Strikes on Dnipropetrovsk (1630Z, Dnipropetrovsk ODA, HIGH): The region was struck over 30 times by drones and artillery on Feb 27, causing documented damage to multi-story residential infrastructure.
Cyber Domain: DDoS Attacks on RU State Infrastructure (1629Z, Operatsiya Z/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Significant DDoS attacks are reportedly targeting the websites of Roskomnadzor and the RU Ministry of Defense, originating from foreign sources.
Hybrid Operations: "Evacuation Project" Targeting Mobilization (1632Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): A clandestine Russian-linked operation is soliciting intelligence on Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) patrol routes in exchange for assistance in illegally crossing borders.
Diplomatic Appointment: Rishi Sunak as Economic Advisor (1648Z, Tsaplienko/The Independent, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Reports suggest the former UK Prime Minister has been appointed as an advisor to President Zelensky for economic recovery and winter preparation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kupyansk/Kharkiv):
Kupyansk District: RU Zapad Group (likely 45th Brigade) is actively employing 2S7 Pion (203mm) heavy self-propelled artillery to support assault detachments (1625Z, MoD Russia). This indicates a high-intensity fire support requirement for infantry advances in the sector.
Vovchansk/Kharkiv Weather: -1.4°C, clear visibility. Optimal conditions for RU heavy artillery and ISR (1645Z).
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Trench Warfare: Combat footage from the "Grachi" detachment shows assault operations occurring in heavily waterlogged, muddy trenches (1648Z). "Rasputitsa" (mud season) conditions are significantly impacting infantry mobility and tactical withdrawals.
Pokrovsk/Svatove Weather: Temperatures hovering near 0°C (1645Z) with overcast skies forecast, likely to maintain current muddy terrain conditions.
Dnipropetrovsk: Severe attrition from combined drone and artillery strikes (30+ incidents) targeting civilian and residential infrastructure (1630Z).
Zaporizhzhia: Local administration continues civil-resilience projects, including child-friendly medical spaces supported by UNICEF (1626Z), amid ongoing front-line pressure.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Deception: The RU "Sever" group claims to have successfully utilized "decoy" positions equipped with Starlink terminals to draw UAF precision strikes (1633Z). This indicates a sophisticated effort to attrit UAF's limited high-precision munitions.
Logistics & Corruption: The arrest of the Readovka founder for UAV embezzlement (1625Z) suggests continued friction in the Russian defense industrial base, specifically in the procurement and delivery of unmanned systems.
Force Sustainment: The Russian State Duma's passage of a law for full compensation of unused air tickets for "SMO" participants (1641Z) indicates a focus on maintaining domestic morale and addressing the logistical grievances of personnel.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics Stability: The detention of the Air Force Logistics Commander (1649Z) may cause short-term C2 disruption within the Air Force supply chain, specifically concerning the procurement of aviation parts or fuel.
Long-Range Capability: The FP-7 ballistic missile test (1631Z) represents a potential shift in UAF's ability to conduct deep-strike operations independently of Western-supplied munitions, though operational deployment timelines remain unknown.
Personnel Policy: UAF leadership is clarifying leave entitlements and the rights of military personnel to prevent command-level refusals, likely to address retention and morale (1649Z).
Information environment / disinformation
RU Hybrid Tactics: The "Evacuation Project" (1632Z) is a dual-purpose operation: (1) Gathering SIGINT/HUMINT on TCC movements and (2) fostering internal dissent regarding mobilization.
Cyber Friction: The DDoS attacks on RU MoD and Roskomnadzor (1645Z) coincide with reports of internal RU corruption, possibly aimed at further disrupting RU state communications during a period of high institutional friction.
International Narrative: Unconfirmed reports of Rishi Sunak's appointment (1648Z) are likely intended to project continued high-level Western commitment to Ukraine’s long-term economic stability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RU forces will maintain heavy artillery pressure in the Kupyansk sector using 2S7 Pions. UAF will prioritize stabilizing Air Force logistics C2 following the commander's arrest.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RU "Sever" group deception tactics (fake Starlink) could lead to the misallocation of UAF HIMARS/long-range assets, allowing RU forces to reposition heavy assets in the Northern sector undetected.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[FP-7 MISSILE]: Determine the range, payload, and production status of the FP-7 ballistic missile.
[C2 IMPACT]: Assess the immediate impact of Andriy Ukrainets’ arrest on Air Force sortie rates and logistics throughput.
[KUPYANSK BDA]: Verify the effectiveness of 2S7 Pion strikes against UAF defensive positions in the Kupyansk district.
[CYBER]: Identify the scale and duration of the DDoS attacks on RU MoD systems to determine if tactical communications are affected.
