RU Aerial Threat: UAV Wave Targeting Kharkiv (1613Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A group of Russian UAVs has been detected approaching Kharkiv from the north. This follows reported strikes on unidentified "objects" in the Kharkiv region earlier in the hour (1607Z).
Tactical Escalation: FAB-3000 Strike in Kostiantynivka (1603Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report the use of a FAB-3000 heavy glide bomb against a 100th OMBr aid post in Kostiantynivka. BDA is currently unconfirmed.
RU Force Generation: Coerced Student Recruitment (1559Z, ASTRA/Mobilization News, HIGH): Students at HSE University’s Faculty of Computer Science are reportedly being threatened with expulsion unless they sign one-year contracts with the RU MoD within 72 hours.
Defense Industrial Corruption: Readovka Investigation Details (1557Z-1617Z, TASS/Operatsiya Z, HIGH): New details indicate Readovka founder Aleksey Kostylev is under investigation specifically for failing to fulfill multi-billion ruble contracts for UAV deliveries to the RU MoD.
UAF Tactical Innovation: Fiber-Optic FPV Deployment (1606Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): The 100th OMBr "VORON" Battalion has confirmed the successful combat use of tethered/fiber-optic drones, which are immune to standard Electronic Warfare (EW) jamming.
Border Activity: Attack on Pogarsky District (1606Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): Local RU authorities claim a Ukrainian attack on the Pogarsky district of the Bryansk region; specific targets or casualties were not disclosed.
Economic Domain: IMF Tranche Conditions (1556Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the IMF EFF program tranche schedule for 2026–2029 may necessitate tax and tariff increases for Ukrainian sole proprietors.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Bryansk):
Kharkiv: Actively under UAV threat as of 1613Z. Current weather (-0.6°C, clear, wind 1.2 m/s) provides high visibility for both RU strike drones and UAF air defense.
Bryansk: Continued kinetic activity in the Pogarsky district (1606Z) following earlier UAV alerts.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Kostiantynivka/Slavyansk Axis: Russian forces report "slow but steady" advancement along the Slavyanskaya Highway (1602Z), supported by high-yield ordnance (FAB-3000). The "Pyatashka International Brigade" is identified as active in this sector.
Svatove/Pokrovsk: Weather remains clear to partly cloudy (0.0°C), supporting continued ISR and drone operations.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: An air raid alert was cleared at 1554Z. Clear conditions (1.3°C, wind 3.1 m/s) persist.
Kherson: Stable conditions (3.4°C, mainly clear) with no new major kinetic updates in the last hour.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Technical Force Generation: The Alabuga Polytech Center is actively promoting the large-scale domestic assembly of delta-wing UAVs (1559Z). This, combined with the coercion of computer science students (1559Z), indicates a desperate RU push to scale technical personnel for unmanned systems.
Internal Friction: The seizure of 13 billion rubles from a former judge (1609Z) and the embezzlement charges against a high-profile media figure (Kostylev) suggest an ongoing "cleansing" of the Russian elite to recover funds and scapegoat procurement failures.
Tactical Shift: The alleged use of FAB-3000 in Kostiantynivka indicates a continued RU reliance on massive firepower to offset slow infantry progression in urban/semi-urban environments.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of fiber-optic FPV drones by the 100th OMBr (1606Z) is a significant counter-EW measure, allowing for precision strikes in environments where Russian EW (like the "Yolka" system) is active.
Diplomatic Manuevering: Former FM Pavlo Klimkin is reportedly being considered for key diplomatic roles in Europe (1618Z), likely to bolster Western support amid evolving IMF requirements.
Information environment / disinformation
RU Domestic Sentiment: There is evidence of economic strain in Russia, with citizens reportedly abandoning KASKO car insurance due to the high cost of spare parts (1605Z).
Elite Divestment: The renunciation of Russian citizenship by Yandex founder Arkady Volozh (1620Z) underscores the continued exodus of the Russian tech elite.
Narrative Warfare: RU sources are highlighting the FAB-3000 strike to project overwhelming power, while UAF-aligned channels are focusing on the successful use of "high-tech" fiber-optic drones to maintain morale.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RU UAV strikes on Kharkiv will continue through the night. RU forces will maintain pressure on the Slavyanskaya Highway near Kostiantynivka using tactical aviation.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RU forces may capitalize on the successful penetration of heavy ordnance (FAB-3000) to launch a localized mechanized assault toward Kostiantynivka before UAF can reinforce the targeted aid posts/C2 nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BDA]: Verify the damage to the 100th OMBr aid post in Kostiantynivka and assess if FAB-3000 usage is becoming a standard tactical procedure in this sector.
[FORCE GENERATION]: Monitor student responses to the HSE University "contract or expel" ultimatum to assess potential domestic unrest or compliance rates.
[UAV TECH]: Confirm the operational range and deployment scale of the new delta-wing UAVs seen at Alabuga Polytech.
[BRYANSK]: Identify the specific weaponry used in the Pogarsky district attack to determine if UAF is utilizing new long-range capabilities.
