Deep Strike on Chuvashia, Russia (1122Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Two missiles targeted the Chuvashia region (approx. 600km from the border). One was intercepted; the second reportedly changed course and exited the region. This represents an escalation in the depth of Ukrainian strike operations.
Destruction of Pantsir-S1 near Mariupol (1141Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) released footage confirming the destruction of a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system in the vicinity of the "Azovstal" plant in occupied Mariupol.
First Russian Tube Artillery Strike on Kramatorsk (1146Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM): Russian sources claim the first use of barrel artillery against Kramatorsk, specifically targeting the Bilenke suburb. If confirmed, this indicates Russian artillery has moved within ~25-30km of the city center.
Missile Alerts in the Urals (1147Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): For the first time since the invasion, missile danger alerts were activated in the Sverdlovsk and Perm regions (Urals), suggesting a perceived or actual threat to deep-rear Russian industrial hubs.
Impact of Starlink Shutdown (1124Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Ukrainian Minister of Defense Fedorov reports that Russian combat streaming/comms decreased 11-fold following the successful shutdown of unauthorized Starlink terminals used by Russian forces.
Heavy Munitions Use in Kostyantynivka (1145Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Russian forces are reportedly using a combination of phosphorus-type incendiary munitions and FAB-1500 high-explosive bombs against residential areas in Kostyantynivka to maximize structural destruction.
Border Attrition (1141Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): UAF "Steel Border" (DPSU) units destroyed seven Russian shelters, an antenna, and two mortar positions in the Kursk/Sumy border region over the last 24 hours.
Weather (1145Z): Kharkiv/Vovchansk (2.0°C, 62% cloud, 2.1 m/s wind). Svatove (1.2°C, 0% cloud). Clearer skies in the northeast are facilitating increased UAV activity.
Rear Operations: Significant Ukrainian drone and missile activity is noted in Kursk (confirmed industrial/auto-service site strike) and Chuvashia. The expansion of missile alerts to Sverdlovsk/Perm indicates a widening of the geographic threat to Russian industrial capacity.
Border: High-intensity tactical attrition continues. UAF successfully targeted Russian observation (antennas) and indirect fire (mortars) assets in the Kursk/Sumy border zone.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Kramatorsk/Kostyantynivka: Russian forces have escalated kinetic pressure on the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk conglomerate. The reported reach of barrel artillery into Bilenke suggests a tactical repositioning or the deployment of long-range specialized artillery (e.g., 2S7 Pion). Kostyantynivka is facing "scorched earth" tactics with the deployment of FAB-1500s.
Mariupol: Ukrainian long-range UAVs/missiles continue to degrade the Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) in the deep rear, as evidenced by the Pantsir-S1 loss at Azovstal.
Weather (1145Z): Pokrovsk (1.3°C, 0% cloud, 4.8 m/s wind). Clear conditions favor continued heavy aerial bombardment by Russian VKS.
Logistics: Restoration of power to 324,000 consumers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast throughout February indicates a sustained effort to maintain grid resilience despite ongoing hostilities.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): Russia is shifting toward high-yield urban destruction in the Donbas (FAB-1500) to compensate for slowed ground maneuver. The deployment of tube artillery against Kramatorsk suggests an intent to begin systematic suppression of the city's logistics and civilian infrastructure.
Technological Vulnerability: The 11x drop in Russian streaming capacity following the Starlink crackdown demonstrates a critical reliance on Western dual-use technology for tactical C2.
Internal Friction: The detention of pro-war media figure Alexey Kostylev (Readovka) for fraud and the arrest of the head of Bodaibo (Irkutsk) following a month-long heating failure (-40°C) suggest a crackdown on both the "turbo-patriot" information space and local administrative failures.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF is successfully penetrating Russian airspace at depths exceeding 600km (Chuvashia) and threatening previously "safe" industrial zones in the Urals.
Asymmetric Warfare: The Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) are effectively hunting high-value Russian AD assets (Pantsir-S1) in occupied territories.
Strategic Resilience: President Zelenskyy is prioritizing the "Resilience Plan" for winter 2026, focusing on energy decentralization and regional efficiency.
Information environment / disinformation
Nuclear Deterrence Narrative: The Russian Duma’s appeal regarding alleged UK/French supply of nuclear components to Ukraine is a clear hybrid operation designed to deter Western military aid and justify Russian nuclear posturing (1127Z).
Energy Blackmail: Russian-aligned leaders (Orbán/Fico) are using the Druzhba pipeline stoppage to pressure Kyiv for access to sovereign territory, likely acting as a proxy for Russian energy interests (1128Z).
Peacekeeping Narratives: Reports of British/French paratroopers preparing for missions in Ukraine (via The Telegraph) are being amplified by Ukrainian sources to bolster morale, though such missions remain conditional on a ceasefire (1139Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA: Continued Russian heavy bombardment of Kostyantynivka and first-phase artillery ranging of Kramatorsk. Expect retaliatory Russian UAV launches against Sumy and Kharkiv in response to the Chuvashia strike.
Most Dangerous COA: A massed Russian missile strike targeting the Ukrainian energy grid, synchronized with the current diplomatic pressure regarding the Druzhba pipeline.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[KRAMATORSK ARTILLERY]: Confirm the specific artillery system used to strike Bilenke to determine the current location of the Russian FEBA (Forward Edge of Battle Area).
[CHUVASHIA TARGET]: Identify the intended target of the missile strike in Chuvashia (e.g., industrial, C2, or logistics).
[URAL THREAT]: Determine the nature of the "missile danger" in Sverdlovsk/Perm—was it a confirmed launch or a precautionary measure?
[PANTSIR-S1 BDA]: Obtain satellite imagery of the Mariupol Azovstal site to confirm total destruction of the Pantsir-S1 and assess for other nearby equipment losses.
