Confirmed Strike on Taganrog, Russia (1100Z, ASTRA/TASS, MEDIUM): Ukrainian missile or UAV debris impacted a multi-story residential building in Taganrog; local authorities confirm structural damage.
Russian Advance toward Dnipropetrovsk Border (1051Z, Kotsnews/Poddubny, MEDIUM): Multiple Russian sources claim the capture of Krasnoznamenka (Beliakovka). While UNCONFIRMED by UAF, this indicates a concerted Russian effort to expand the "Tsentr" Group's bridgehead into the Mezhivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Alleged First Combat Use of Mirage 2000 (1106Z, Tsaplienko, LOW): Footage circulating online reportedly shows Ukrainian Air Force French-made Mirage 2000 fighters striking Russian positions. Aircraft type is UNCONFIRMED due to low video resolution.
Kinetic Impact in Sumy (1108Z, Tsaplienko/UAF AF, HIGH): Hostile UAVs launched from the east struck a hotel in central Sumy; night-vision footage confirms a significant explosion.
Continued Combat in Drobyshevo (1115Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian forces have reportedly raised a flag in central Drobyshevo (Lyman axis), but the settlement remains partially contested ("grey zone") due to persistent UAF counter-attacks.
Casualty Confirmation in Kursk (1105Z, NgP Razvedka, HIGH): A 25-year-old male civilian employee was killed during the previously reported strike on an auto service center in the Seymskiy District.
Russian Personnel Shortage in Tatarstan (1113Z, Mobilization News, MEDIUM): The head of Tatarstan acknowledged a failure to meet contract recruitment quotas, noting that combat losses in January exceeded new enlistments.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Weather (1115Z): Kharkiv/Vovchansk (1.8°C, 62% cloud, 2.1 m/s wind). Conditions are transitioning to overcast, which may degrade optical ISR for both sides.
Operations: Sumy is currently under active UAV threat from the east. A hotel in the city center was struck (1108Z). In the Kursk region, UAF drone strikes continue to target infrastructure, including an auto service center.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Lyman Axis: High-intensity urban combat continues in Drobyshevo. While Russian forces claim a symbolic presence (flag raising), the tactical situation remains fluid.
Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border: Russian "Tsentr" Group forces are pushing west of the DNP/DNR administrative border. The claim on Krasnoznamenka suggests an operational intent to seize Mezhova and Novopavlivka to secure the western flank of their Donetsk offensive.
Weather (1115Z): Svatove (1.1°C) and Pokrovsk (1.2°C) are currently clear (0% cloud), favoring precision strike and FPV operations. Forecast indicates a shift to overcast (Code 3) within the next 24 hours.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Weather (1115Z): Orikhiv (4.7°C, 0% cloud) and Kherson (5.4°C, 43% cloud). Winds are moderate (4.2-4.7 m/s).
Operations: No major ground maneuver changes reported in the last 3 hours. Both sides are maintaining current dispositions under clearing skies.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): The Russian military is prioritizing the expansion of the "Tsentr" Group’s operational area into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. By targeting Krasnoznamenka, they aim to bypass established defensive nodes and threaten logistics hubs in Mezhova.
Internal Stability: The detention of Readovka founder Alexey Kostylev (facing up to 10 years for fraud) and the recruitment shortfalls in Tatarstan suggest increasing internal friction and resource strain within the Russian rear.
Hybrid Threat: Russian officials (Peskov) are signaling potential "sabotage" against the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines, likely a pre-emptive narrative to justify future kinetic escalations or pressure Turkey (1057Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to demonstrate the ability to penetrate Russian air defenses in the Rostov region (Taganrog) and Kursk.
Personnel Policy: The MoD has formalized a policy allowing service members to designate beneficiaries for their pay (min. 120,000 UAH/mo) in the event of capture or disappearance, an effort to sustain morale and family welfare (1054Z).
Logistics Status: Infrastructure degradation is significant, with over 23 million sq. meters of roads damaged, complicating long-term sustainment and mobility (1115Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Sabotage Narratives: Russian state media is actively promoting the narrative that Ukraine is planning attacks on international gas infrastructure (TurkStream) to drive a wedge between Kyiv and Ankara.
Morale Operations: Russian milbloggers are amplifying claims of high desertion rates among young Ukrainian men (18-22) to undermine Ukrainian mobilization efforts (1103Z).
Technological Signaling: Russian sources are highlighting the arrival of German and British drones to frame the conflict as a direct confrontation with NATO technology (1106Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA: Continued Russian attempts to consolidate control over Krasnoznamenka and push toward Mezhova. Expect increased Russian UAV and missile activity over Sumy and Kharkiv as weather conditions deteriorate.
Most Dangerous COA: A successful Russian breakthrough on the Dnipropetrovsk border that forces a significant UAF realignment from the Pokrovsk sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[KRASNOZNAMIANKA VERIFICATION]: Request satellite or drone imagery to confirm the extent of Russian control in Krasnoznamenka/Beliakovka.
[MIRAGE 2000 CONFIRMATION]: Need SIGINT or high-resolution visual evidence to verify the deployment and combat use of Mirage 2000 airframes.
[DROBYSHEVO STATUS]: Clarify the degree of Russian control in Drobyshevo; identify if UAF counter-attacks have successfully pushed RU forces back to the outskirts.
[TAGANROG BATTLE DAMAGE]: Assess if the Taganrog strike hit a specific military or industrial target near the residential building debris.
