New UAV Threat to Odesa (0055Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New groups of Shahed-type UAVs have been detected launched from the Black Sea, currently on a vector toward Zatoka, Odesa Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Alert Status (0057Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city has been canceled; however, a missile threat remains active for the broader Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Russian IO Targeting Diaspora (0045Z, NgP RaZViedka, LOW): Russian-aligned sources are circulating claims of a kidnapping attempt by Ukrainians in Valencia, Spain. This is currently UNCONFIRMED and fits patterns of reflexive control aimed at delegitimizing Ukrainian refugees.
Russian Domestic Policy (0055Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Proposals have emerged to align Russian spring school holidays with state holidays (Feb 23 – Mar 9), potentially intended to consolidate social focus on military-patriotic dates.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk):
Current Conditions: -0.4°C, 100% cloud cover, wind 2.4 m/s.
Status: No new tactical developments reported. Extreme cloud cover continues to suppress high-altitude ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Luhansk/Svatove Axis: -1.9°C, 45% cloud cover (partly cloudy). Improved visibility compared to other sectors may facilitate increased drone activity over the next 6 hours.
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: -1.1°C, 62% cloud cover, wind 3.6 m/s. The situation remains stable following earlier reports of drone/UGV attrition.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa):
Odesa (Zatoka): Currently under active threat from sea-launched UAVs. Weather in the region (based on Kherson/Zaporizhzhia proxies) is approximately 0.4°C–0.6°C with 86-95% cloud cover.
Zaporizhzhia: 0.4°C, 86% cloud cover. While the immediate city alert is cleared, the persistence of a "missile danger" status suggests Russian batteries (likely S-300 or Iskander-M) remain in a high state of launch readiness in the occupied areas of the sector.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Vector UAV Strikes: The enemy is expanding its current UAV offensive from the Pavlohrad/Dnipropetrovsk axis (reported at 0040Z) to include a maritime vector targeting Odesa. This indicates a "pulsed" saturation tactic intended to fix Ukrainian AD assets across multiple regions.
Course of Action (COA): Russian forces are likely attempting to exploit the high cloud cover in the South to mask low-altitude UAV approach paths toward critical infrastructure in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: AD units in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia are actively tracking multiple threats. The clearance of the city-level alert in Zaporizhzhia indicates successful localized threat mitigation or a shift in enemy targeting away from the urban center toward the tactical rear.
Information environment / disinformation
Criminalization Narratives: The claim regarding Ukrainian criminal activity in Spain (0045Z) appears to be a continuation of Russian hybrid operations designed to create friction between Ukrainian refugees and European host populations.
Societal Mobilization: Domestic Russian narratives are focusing on the decline of "Soviet-era" vices (home distilling) and educational restructuring (holiday shifts), likely intended to project an image of a modernizing, disciplined society focused on long-term conflict.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes on Odesa (Zatoka) and the Pavlohrad logistics hub. Intermittent missile launches against Ukrainian tactical rears in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated ballistic missile strike on Odesa or Zaporizhzhia timed to coincide with the arrival of UAV groups, intended to overwhelm regional air defense batteries.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL BDA]: Monitor for impacts or interceptions in the Zatoka/Odesa area following the 0055Z UAV detection.
[SITUATIONAL AWARENESS]: Identify the launch platforms for the Odesa-bound UAVs (sea-based vessels vs. Cape Chauda/Crimea).
[THREAT ASSESSMENT]: Determine if the "missile danger" in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is linked to detected movement of RU tactical ballistic missile systems in the Polohy or Tokmak areas.
