Pakistani Aircraft Downed (0014Z, TASS/TOLO News, MEDIUM): A Pakistani Air Force aircraft was reportedly shot down within Afghan airspace. This marks a significant escalation following earlier reports of 133 Afghan military casualties.
Russian Strike Claims in South Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia (0011Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian forces (242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment) claim to have destroyed Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drones, communication antennas, and UAV control points near Poltavka, Rusyn Yar, and Novopavlivka. Video evidence shows strikes on a ground structure and an antenna.
UNSC Inaction on Af-Pak Border (0018Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Sources within the UN Security Council indicate that no emergency meeting is currently being discussed regarding the escalating Pakistan-Afghanistan border conflict.
Russian IO Targeting Polish-Ukrainian Relations (0023Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian diplomats are actively promoting narratives of growing "negativity" toward Ukrainian refugees in Polish society, likely aimed at undermining bilateral support.
Active UAV Threat to Pavlohrad (Continuation from 2356Z, UAF, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs remain a threat to the Pavlohrad logistics hub; no confirmation of interception or impact has been received since the last report.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk):
Current Conditions: -0.3°C, 100% cloud cover, wind 2.3 m/s.
Tactical Situation: Static. High cloud cover continues to limit optical ISR and tactical aviation for both sides.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Luhansk/Alchevsk Axis: -1.6°C, 64% cloud cover. The status of the reported strike on the "Cherkaska" substation (0005Z) remains UNCONFIRMED. Intelligence is monitoring for localized power outages in the Alchevsk-Luhansk corridor.
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: -1.0°C, 81% cloud cover, wind 3.6 m/s. Operational tempo remains focused on drone-vs-drone/UGV engagements as reported in the previous 24h context.
Vremivka Salient / Novopavlivka Axis: Russian activity has intensified against UAF technical infrastructure. The 242nd MRR is prioritizing the neutralization of "Baba Yaga" heavy drones and local communication nodes (0011Z), suggesting an attempt to degrade UAF night-raid capabilities and localized C2.
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv): 0.7°C, 74% cloud cover.
Kherson: 0.6°C, 99% cloud cover, wind 3.6 m/s.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Counter-Drone Operations: Russian forces are displaying increased tactical focus on Ukrainian UAV "rear" infrastructure (control points and antennas). This correlates with the introduction of Russian fiber-optic drones designed to bypass EW, suggesting a coordinated effort to win the "drone war" through both technological shifts and kinetic targeting of operators/comms.
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is likely to continue the UAV "pulsed" attack toward Pavlohrad while using tactical successes in the Novopavlivka sector to push for local gains in the South Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border region.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Unmanned Systems: Despite Russian claims of interceptions, "Baba Yaga" platforms remain active in the Southern sector, serving as critical assets for night-time interdiction and logistics support.
Infrastructure Defense: AD units in Dnipropetrovsk are maintaining a high readiness posture to protect the Pavlohrad rail hub from the current UAV threat.
Information environment / disinformation
Reflexive Control (Refugees): The Russian embassy in Poland is amplifying internal Polish polling data to frame Ukrainian refugees as a source of social friction (0023Z). This is a standard hybrid tactic to weaken the "rear" of the Ukrainian defense by targeting its international support base.
Diversionary Narratives: Russian state media is interspersing reports of external conflict (Af-Pak) and minor domestic social news (pension increases, 0012Z) to project an image of internal stability and global relevance while masking frontline attrition.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued Shahed-type UAV strikes targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Possible confirmation of power fluctuations in occupied Luhansk if the Alchevsk strike was successful.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A surge in Russian tactical advances in the Novopavlivka/Poltavka sector if UAF communication nodes have been significantly degraded as claimed by the 242nd MRR.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Verify the extent of damage to Ukrainian comms and drone control points in Poltavka, Rusyn Yar, and Novopavlivka (ref: Colonelcassad, 0011Z).
[SITUATIONAL AWARENESS]: Confirm if the Pakistani aircraft shoot-down involved MANPADS or heavier SAM systems, and identify the specific location relative to Afghan-Tajik-Russian spheres of influence.
[LOGISTICS]: Monitor for signs of localized UAF drone sortie reduction in the Vremivka Salient area following Russian strikes on control points.
