UAV Strike in Kirovohrad (05:51, Operativno ZSU/OVA, HIGH): A Russian drone strike on Novoarkhanhelske resulted in at least one civilian injury.
Ongoing UAV Ingress – Central/South (05:41–05:44, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Multiple "Shahed" groups are active: one over Zatoka (Odesa) heading NE; one passing Lypovets toward Vinnytsia; and one approaching Zaporizhzhia from the north.
High Russian Attrition (06:02, RBK-Ukraine/GenStaff, HIGH): Ukrainian General Staff reports 1,380 Russian personnel losses over the last 24 hours.
Artillery/UAV Success (06:03, UAF Air Assault Forces, HIGH): The 148th Separate Artillery Brigade released footage confirming successful drone-guided strikes on Russian personnel and an ammunition depot, resulting in secondary explosions.
Kryvyi Rih Status (05:43, Vilkul, HIGH): Local authorities report the situation is "controlled" following earlier strikes on residential buildings.
Russian Economic Strain (05:46, Sever.Realii, MEDIUM): Reported 2025 Russian regional budget deficits have exceeded 1 trillion rubles, a significant shift from the 2024 surplus.
Analysis: Persistent high cloud cover and mixed precipitation continue to provide optimal conditions for low-altitude UAV ingress while degrading optical ISR for both sides.
Zaporizhzhia City: Facing imminent UAV threat from the north (05:44) following previous residential damage confirmed by regional officials (05:55).
Odesa/Zatoka: Active UAV ingress detected; course indicates potential targeting of logistics or transit hubs toward the northeast.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Course of Action (COA): The enemy is maintaining a high-tempo UAV "swarm" tactic across multiple oblasts (Odesa, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia) to overwhelm local air defense and identification efforts. The use of north-to-south trajectories for Zaporizhzhia suggests a multi-vector approach to bypass fixed AD sites.
Sustainment: Evidence of a targeted strike on a Russian ammunition depot (06:03) indicates successful UAF interdiction of localized logistics.
Capabilities (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Russian state media continues to profile individual volunteer units (e.g., Sergeant Sazanov) to bolster domestic recruitment narratives amidst reports of record regional budget deficits and high casualty rates.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: Air Defense units are actively tracking and engaging multiple UAV groups across four oblasts.
Offensive interdiction: UAF artillery (148th Brigade) continues to prioritize the destruction of Russian ammunition storage to blunt localized offensive capacity.
Information environment / disinformation
Trump Peace Plan (05:42, Tsaplienko/Axios, MEDIUM): Reports circulating that Donald Trump expressed a desire to resolve the conflict within one month. This is likely being monitored for its impact on frontline morale.
Hybrid Signaling (06:09, TASS, LOW): Russian MFA (Zakharova) has characterized an unspecified boat incident near Cuba as a "US provocation." This is assessed as a standard hybrid effort to distract international attention or create a false equivalence with Black Sea operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continuation of UAV strikes against central and southern Ukrainian energy/logistics targets. Potential for localized civilian casualties in Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia as drones reach their terminal waypoints.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized UAV saturation followed by a precision missile strike on identified air defense gaps in the Vinnytsia-Kirovohrad corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[UAV TERMINUS]: Identify the specific targets of the UAV group transiting toward Vinnytsia (Energy vs. C2).
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Confirm the extent of the ammo depot destruction reported by the 148th Brigade to assess the tactical impact on the local Russian sector.
[RUSSIAN ECONOMY]: Further verification required on the "1 trillion ruble" deficit claim to assess long-term sustainability of Russian regional military subsidies.
