Kh-22 Missile Wave Dissipation (05:13, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): The Kh-22 supersonic missiles launched from Bryansk Oblast reportedly failed to reach their targets, "disappearing" from radar in the border regions of Bryansk. This suggests either a technical failure, effective electronic warfare (EW), or a coordinated decoy maneuver.
Kyiv Air Clear (05:33, KMVA, HIGH): The air raid alert for the capital has been canceled following the dissipation of the Kh-22 threat.
Residential Strike in Kryvyi Rih (05:12, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, HIGH): A Russian strike hit a multi-story residential building, triggering a fire and resulting in at least two confirmed injuries.
Massed Strikes in Zaporizhzhia (05:10–05:33, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Regional authorities report 720 strikes over the past 24 hours (1 dead, 8 injured). Most recently, a residential apartment building in the city sustained severe facade damage from a direct hit.
Critical Infrastructure Attack in Mykolaiv (05:13, Mykolaiv ODA, HIGH): Shahed UAVs targeted critical infrastructure overnight; damage is confirmed in Snihurivka, though no casualties were reported.
Ongoing UAV Ingress (05:21–05:28, AFU Air Force, HIGH): "Shahed" type drones remain active, with groups detected in western Sumy (heading toward Chernihiv) and southern Odesa (Kurortne).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Chernihiv / Kharkiv Sector:
Chernihiv/Sumy: Threat remains active as UAVs transit western Sumy toward Chernihiv Oblast.
Kharkiv/Vovchansk Weather (05:30 UTC): 0.5°C, overcast, wind 2.3 m/s. High cloud cover (97%) continues to assist low-altitude UAV penetration.
2. Central / Dnipro / Donetsk Sector:
Kryvyi Rih/Nikopol: Significant escalation in standoff attacks. Nearly 20 separate drone and artillery strikes were recorded in the last reporting window, focusing on residential and civilian structures.
Pokrovsk Weather (05:30 UTC): 0.2°C, snow grains, wind 4.2 m/s. Precipitation (0.1 mm) and near-freezing temperatures maintain the "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions, effectively restricting heavy maneuver to paved GLOCs.
3. Southern Sector:
Mykolaiv: Focus of enemy UAV activity has shifted to critical infrastructure targets in the Snihurivka area.
Zaporizhzhia: Intense kinetic pressure continues with high-volume (720+) strikes. The city center is facing direct hits on residential high-rises.
Tactical Shift: The failure of the Kh-22 wave to penetrate Ukrainian airspace suggests a potential over-reliance on aging airframes/munitions or an effective Ukrainian EW "bubble" in the northern corridor. However, the enemy is compensating by increasing the volume of Shahed and tube/rocket artillery strikes against urban centers (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih).
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is maintaining a multi-vector UAV pressure (Sumy, Odesa, Mykolaiv) to stretch Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) assets while utilizing high-volume artillery and localized missile strikes to degrade civilian morale and infrastructure in frontline cities.
Capabilities (UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Russian state media (TASS) claims "Azov" and "Aidar" units are surrendering due to low motivation. This is assessed as a standard psychological operation (PSYOP) to counter recent Ukrainian tactical resilience.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: Successful management of the recent Kh-22 threat led to a timely "all clear" in Kyiv, minimizing economic disruption. Mobile fire groups remain the primary counter-UAV tool in the Mykolaiv and Odesa sectors.
C2 Security: Internal discussions have surfaced regarding the creation of a national messenger based on the "Diia" framework to replace Telegram, citing security vulnerabilities and potential Russian intelligence access (05:37, ASTRA).
Information environment / disinformation
Polish "War Prep" Narrative (05:10, Dva Mayora, LOW): Russian channels are framing standard civil defense inspections in Warsaw (metro emergency supplies) as imminent preparation for direct conflict.
Trump Peace Plan (05:25, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM): Reports citing Axios claim a one-month timeline for conflict resolution from the Trump camp. This is likely being amplified by Russian sources to foster a sense of "inevitability" regarding territorial concessions in the Donbas.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV "probing" in the northern and southern corridors. Expect a focus on BDA and emergency response in Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih following recent residential impacts.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A secondary missile strike targeting emergency responders (double-tap) in Zaporizhzhia or Kryvyi Rih, or a renewed ballistic launch from Crimea targeting Mykolaiv/Odesa while UAVs are being intercepted.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[KH-22 ATTRITION]: Urgent requirement to determine if the Kh-22s "disappearing" in Bryansk were intercepted by UAF AD, suffered technical failure, or were decoys intended to map AD radar positions.
[ZAPORIZHZHIA CASUALTIES]: Verification of final casualty counts from the residential strike in Zaporizhzhia to assess the impact on local medical logistics.
[SBU PURGE IMPACT]: Monitor for any degradation in airfield defense or logistics coordination following the previously reported detention of the Air Force Logistics Commander.
