New Kh-22 Missile Threat (05:04–05:07, AFU Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): A new missile wave has been detected. Russian Tu-22M3 bombers launched Kh-22 supersonic missiles from Bryansk Oblast toward the Chernihiv and Kyiv (Borodyanka/Makarov) vectors.
Kyiv Air Raid Alert Re-activation (04:54, KMVA, HIGH): After a brief "all-clear" at 04:44, the air raid alert was re-issued for the capital due to the incoming Kh-22 threat.
Expanded Kyiv Damage Assessment (05:02, KMVA, HIGH): Local authorities confirmed that the previous missile wave caused damage in three separate districts of Kyiv (previously reported as only Darnytskyi).
Kharkiv Casualty Revision (04:42, Tsaplienko, HIGH): The number of civilians injured in the overnight UAV and missile attack on Kharkiv has risen to 9.
Massed Attack on Vinnytsia (05:02, Vinnytsia OVA, HIGH): Regional authorities confirm Vinnytsia is currently under a "massed air attack" by "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs entering from the east.
Russian Rear Activity (04:49, Bryansk Gov, MEDIUM): Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted 7 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Chernihiv / Kharkiv Sector:
Chernihiv/Slavutych: High-priority missile threat as of 05:05 UTC. Kh-22 missiles are expected to transit this airspace within minutes.
Kharkiv: Search and rescue operations continue; casualty count confirmed at 9.
Weather (05:00 UTC): 0.5°C, overcast, wind 2.3 m/s. Cloud cover remains high (97%), providing concealment for low-altitude UAVs but complicating visual tracking for mobile fire groups.
2. Central / Kyiv / Vinnytsia Sector:
Kyiv Metropolitan: Damage assessment is ongoing across three districts. Emergency services are on high alert for secondary strikes following the re-activation of the air raid siren.
Vinnytsia: The sector is currently the primary focus of the remaining Russian UAV wave ("mopeds"). AFU Air Force reports multiple groups approaching from the east (04:46).
Donetsk (Pokrovsk) Weather (05:00 UTC): 0.2°C, snow grains, wind 4.2 m/s. Surface conditions are deteriorating due to freezing precipitation (0.1 mm), likely limiting any mechanized movement to established roads.
3. Southern Sector:
Vremivsky Direction: Russian sources (Voin DV) released thermal FPV footage claiming the destruction of UAF equipment (05:10). (UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv) Weather (05:00 UTC): 0.8°C, light rain, wind 4.0 m/s. Saturated soil (1.2 mm daily precip) continues to enforce operational pauses for heavy maneuver units.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): The enemy has transitioned from a UAV-heavy "soaking" phase back to high-kinetic missile strikes using Kh-22 supersonic munitions. By launching from Bryansk, they are shortening the flight time to Kyiv and Chernihiv, testing the reaction time of UAF air defense after a period of sustained alert.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of Kh-22 (traditionally an anti-ship missile) against inland targets like Borodyanka/Makarov suggests a continued intent to cause high-velocity kinetic damage to infrastructure or C2 nodes despite the lower precision of these munitions.
Personnel Losses: UAF sources claim 1,360 Russian personnel casualties in the last 24-hour reporting period (04:42, Operativno ZSU).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Response: UAF AD units are actively tracking the Kh-22 wave. The rapid re-activation of alerts in Kyiv demonstrates high situational awareness and a "fail-safe" approach to civilian protection.
Counter-UAV Operations: Mobile fire groups are heavily engaged in the Vinnytsia oblast to intercept the remaining UAV clusters before they reach urban centers.
Information environment / disinformation
Druzhba Pipeline Narrative (04:47, TASS, LOW): Former PM Azarov (in exile) is being utilized by Russian state media to claim Kyiv is blocking oil transit to Hungary at Brussels' behest. This is a clear attempt to exacerbate tensions between Ukraine and Hungary regarding energy security.
Domestic RU Framing: Russian channels (Archangel Spetsnaza) are maintaining a standard "good morning" posture to project normalcy despite reported UAV incursions into Bryansk (05:01).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Kh-22 missiles will impact or be intercepted in the Kyiv/Chernihiv sectors within 15-30 minutes. Following the missile wave, the Vinnytsia UAV attack will culminate. A period of BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) will follow at sunrise.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-vector "sandwich" attack where Kh-22s are used to fix AD assets while a low-altitude Kalibr or Iskander strike targets the recently damaged districts in Kyiv to maximize casualties among first responders.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BDE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Immediate requirement for damage reports from the two newly identified districts in Kyiv (beyond Darnytskyi) to determine the target set (Energy vs. Residential).
[KH-22 TRACKING]: Monitor for the number of Tu-22M3 aircraft remaining in the air or returning to base (Shaykovka/Olenya) to determine if further launches are imminent.
[HUNGARIAN REACTION]: Monitor for any official Budapest response to the TASS/Azarov "Druzhba pipeline" claims that could impact regional energy logistics.
