Termination of Cruise Missile Wave (04:11–04:17, Vanek/AFU Air Force, HIGH): The primary cruise missile wave has largely concluded. At 04:14, fewer than 5 missiles remained in the air; by 04:17, all active missile targets were reported as "minus" (destroyed or impacted).
Kyiv Residential Damage (04:23–04:24, KMVA/RBK-UA, HIGH): A Russian strike damaged a 9-story residential building in the Darnytskyi district of Kyiv. Initial reports indicate no casualties at this location.
Kryvyi Rih Strike (04:35, Dnipropetrovsk OVA/Tsaplienko, HIGH): A kinetic strike on Kryvyi Rih damaged a multi-story residential building and vehicles. Confirmed casualties include two civilians injured.
Persistent UAV Threat to Vinnytsia (04:25–04:38, AFU Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): A staggered wave of approximately 8+ UAVs ("mopeds") is currently converging on Vinnytsia from the east (Gaisyn/Voronovytsya) and southeast (Kirovohrad/Cherkasy vector).
Kharkiv Attack Composition (04:16, Kharkiv OVA, HIGH): Official summary of the overnight attack on Kharkiv confirms the use of 17 UAVs and 2 missiles.
Munition Type Claims (04:33, Operatsiya Z, LOW): Russian sources claim the combined strike utilized Kh-101, Zircon, Iskander, and Geran-2 munitions. (UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Sumy / Kharkiv Sector:
Kharkiv: Stabilization operations are underway following the massed 19-unit strike (17 UAVs, 2 missiles).
Weather (04:30 UTC): 0.6°C, light freezing drizzle, 96% cloud cover. Surface icing remains a significant risk for logistics and aviation.
2. Central / Kyiv / Vinnytsia Sector:
Kyiv Metropolitan: Damage confirmed in Darnytskyi district. At 04:16, a missile was intercepted or transited the Koncha-Zaspa area toward the city center. The immediate missile threat to the capital has subsided as of 04:17.
Vinnytsia/Zhytomyr: Shift in focus to low-speed UAVs. Two groups are active: one approaching via Voronovytsya/Lypovets and a larger group of 6 UAVs north of Gaisyn (04:38).
Bila Tserkva: Several UAVs approaching from the east (04:29).
Donetsk (Pokrovsk) Weather (04:30 UTC): 0.1°C, active snow, 100% cloud cover. Wind 4.3 m/s. High precipitation (0.3 mm/h) continues to degrade visibility for tactical UAVs.
3. Southern / Dnipropetrovsk Sector:
Kryvyi Rih: Site of active emergency response following residential damage and two civilian casualties (04:35).
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv) Weather (04:30 UTC): 1.0°C, light rain, 100% cloud cover. Saturated soil limits heavy armor to improved roads.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): Having exhausted the current cruise missile wave, the enemy is now utilizing "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs to maintain pressure on air defenses in Central Ukraine, specifically targeting the Vinnytsia hub. The use of multiple ingress vectors (Kirovohrad and Cherkasy) suggests an attempt to bypass localized mobile fire groups.
Munition Diversity: Russian claims of "Zircon" and "Iskander" employment (04:33) align with the high-speed profiles observed in previous sitreps but remain technically unconfirmed by UAF wreckage analysis.
Russian Rear Defense: RU MoD maintains its claim of 17 UA UAVs intercepted over Russian territory (04:25), a narrative echoed by milbloggers to project defensive competence during the offensive strike cycle.
Friendly forces (UAF)
Air Defense Efficacy: Successful "clearing" of the missile wave by 04:17 indicates effective prioritization of high-speed targets. Mobile fire groups are currently repositioning to intercept the UAV wave approaching Vinnytsia.
Strategic Continuity: Despite the SBU anti-corruption purge in the Air Force Logistics command (Ref: Previous Daily Report), C2 over air defense assets appears functional and responsive to real-time vector changes.
Information environment / disinformation
Hungarian Stance (04:33, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): PM Orban's reported statement regarding stationing troops near energy objects to protect against "Ukrainian attacks" serves as a potential friction point in NATO/EU cooperation and provides a narrative for Russian state media to frame Ukraine as a regional threat.
Russian "Cultural Code" Narrative (04:22, Operatsiya Z, LOW): Increasing use of religious and "cultural code" rhetoric in milblogger channels suggests a continued domestic focus on ideological mobilization.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The remaining UAVs will reach the Vinnytsia/Bila Tserkva areas within 30-60 minutes. Once the air raid is cleared, BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) will likely reveal further localized damage to energy or logistics infrastructure in the Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A "follow-on" ballistic strike (Iskander-M) targeting emergency responders at the Darnytskyi (Kyiv) or Kryvyi Rih strike sites (double-tap tactic).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[MUNITION VERIFICATION]: Urgent requirement for forensic confirmation of Zircon (3M22) usage in the Kyiv sector to update threat profiles for hypersonic defense.
[HUNGARIAN BORDER]: Monitor for any actual movement of Hungarian troops near the border or energy infrastructure that could interfere with UAF logistics or SIGINT.
[CASUALTY TOTALS]: Consolidate final casualty counts from Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Kyiv following the conclusion of the 02:00-04:30 strike window.
