Large-Scale UAV Engagement (05:51, General Staff ZSU, HIGH): UAF confirms a mass Russian aerial attack involving 115 OWA-UAVs (Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas types). 95 assets were neutralized (82% interception rate). 18 successful strikes were recorded across 11 locations.
New Inbound UAV Waves (05:47, 06:01, Air Force AFU, HIGH): Active UAV groups are currently transiting northern Poltava Oblast toward Pyryatyn and eastern Cherkasy Oblast toward Zolotonosha.
Unconfirmed Russian Advance in Sumy (05:53, Voenkor Kotenok, LOW): Russian sources claim a resumption of active operations north of Sumy, specifically targeting the Khoten-Khrapovshchina line and attempting to isolate units near Sadky. This remains unconfirmed by official UAF sources.
High Russian Attrition (05:38, General Staff ZSU, HIGH): 1,070 Russian personnel were reported liquidated over the last 24 hours, maintaining the high intensity of defensive operations.
Claimed Artillery Destruction (05:49, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian MoD released footage allegedly showing the destruction of at least one UAF M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer using strike UAVs in winter conditions.
Donetsk Envelopment Threat (06:04, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM): Analytical reporting suggests Russian Group of Forces (GV) "South" is attempting a double operational envelopment of the Druzhkivka-Kostiantynivka agglomeration to facilitate a southern approach to Sloviansk-Kramatorsk.
Tactical Situation: Russian claims of an offensive north of Sumy (Khoten-Khrapovshchina) suggest a possible attempt to broaden the front or create a buffer zone. Light snow and near-freezing temperatures continue to degrade optical ISR.
Tactical Situation: Russian intent appears focused on the Druzhkivka-Kostiantynivka line. The combination of light rain and 1.4°C-1.9°C temperatures is finalizing the transition to "Rasputitsa," severely limiting heavy mechanized movement to established road networks.
Tactical Status: Following overnight strikes, the sector remains under high UAV surveillance. No major changes in forward line of own troops (FLOT) reported in the last 60 minutes.
4. Interior Ukraine (Poltava/Cherkasy):
Kinetic Activity: The air threat has shifted from the borders to central regions (Pyryatyn, Zolotonosha), indicating a multi-stage UAV flight profile designed to bypass perimeter air defenses.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Evolution: The inclusion of "Gerbera" and "Italmas" drones alongside Shaheds indicates a diversification of the strike mix, likely intended to saturate air defense (AD) and deplete interceptor stocks.
Operational Intent: The focus on Kostiantynivka and potentially Sumy suggests the enemy is seeking to exploit the period before full mud-season saturation to improve tactical positioning.
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment of central logistics hubs (Poltava/Cherkasy) to disrupt the flow of reserves to the East.
MDCOA: A verified breakthrough in the Sumy sector could force UAF to redeploy units from the Donetsk axis, thinning defenses during the Russian attempt to envelop Druzhkivka.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: UAF AD remains highly effective (82% neutralization rate), despite the increased complexity of the Russian drone mix.
Counter-Battery/Precision Strike: Despite Russian claims of M109 losses, UAF continues high-tempo attrition of Russian personnel (1,070 in 24h).
Information environment / disinformation
US Demarche Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Operatsiya Z) continue to amplify claims of a US warning regarding strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (CPC/Novorossiysk), seeking to frame UAF operations as detrimental to Western economic interests.
Domestic Militarization: Reports from Yekaterinburg (ASTRA) regarding proposals for child military training (digging trenches/firing weapons) highlight an increasing long-term "total war" footing within Russian domestic policy.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Air Defense: Continued engagements expected in Poltava and Cherkasy oblasts as the current UAV waves reach their targets.
Terrain: Ground conditions will continue to deteriorate as temperatures hover near freezing with ongoing precipitation (rain/snow), likely stalling any major mechanized pushes.
Sumy Front: Critical to monitor for confirmation of Russian movement toward the Khoten-Khrapovshchina line.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Confirm/deny Russian territorial gains north of Sumy near Khoten.
[TECHNICAL]: Identify specific variants of "Italmas" and "Gerbera" drones used in the 115-unit wave to assess potential navigation or EW-resistance upgrades.
[LOGISTICAL]: Evaluate the impact of the 18 successful strikes on UAF logistics and C2 hubs.
