UAF Deep Strike on Smolensk (05:24, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Reports of explosions and a major fire at a chemical plant in Dorogobuzh, Smolensk Oblast. This indicates an expansion of the UAF long-range strike campaign beyond the 69-drone wave reported earlier.
US Diplomatic Demarche Reported (05:22, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Ukrainian sources, citing CNN, report a US diplomatic warning regarding UAF strikes on oil infrastructure in Novorossiysk, specifically citing threats to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and US economic interests.
Russian Guided Munition Breakthrough (05:28, ТАСС, MEDIUM): Kalashnikov Concern announced the "Kub-10ME," a new guided munition with a reported range exceeding 100km.
Civilian Casualties in Southern Ukraine (05:10, 05:19, Zaporizhzhia ODA / РБК-Україна, HIGH): Russian strikes killed four in Zaporizhzhia and one in Kherson, with multiple injuries reported in both oblasts.
Ongoing Russian UAV Incursions (05:30, 05:34, Air Force of the AFU, HIGH): New OWA-UAV threats detected over eastern Chernihiv (heading for Pryluky) and entering Mykolaiv Oblast from the Black Sea.
Confirmed POW (05:16, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian sources published footage of Major Yuriy Tikhonyuk (CBRN Specialist, 96th AA Missile Brigade) in captivity.
Tactical Situation: Russian UAVs continue to exploit low-altitude corridors. A specific threat is currently transiting eastern Chernihiv toward Pryluky (Air Force AFU, 05:30). Ground operations are stalled due to light snow and low visibility.
2. Eastern Sector (Luhansk/Donetsk):
Weather (05:30 UTC): Svatove: 1.2°C (light rain); Pokrovsk: 1.7°C (light drizzle). Cloud cover remains 100% across the sector.
Tactical Situation: Thermal footage indicates Russian 29th Army drone operators are active in rural, snowy terrain (Voin DV, 05:10). Sustained precipitation is accelerating the onset of Rasputitsa (mud season), likely forcing mechanized units to remain on paved surfaces.
Tactical Status: High-intensity Russian strikes against critical infrastructure in Mykolaiv (РБК-Україна, 05:13) and civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. New UAV threats are surfacing from the Black Sea toward Mykolaiv (Air Force AFU, 05:34).
4. Russian Rear / Deep Rear:
Kinetic Activity: Beyond the overnight drone wave, the strike on the Dorogobuzh chemical plant (Smolensk) confirms UAF's intent to target the Russian industrial base. The "drone danger" alert in Bryansk was officially cleared as of 05:27 (AV Bogomaz).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
New Capability: The introduction of the "Kub-10ME" (100km+ range) potentially bridges the gap between tactical FPVs and long-range standoff missiles, increasing the threat to UAF C2 and logistics hubs behind the 50km "gray zone."
Infrastructure Targeting: Continued focus on Mykolaiv’s energy/critical infrastructure suggests a coordinated effort to degrade southern logistics.
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment of northern and southern corridors to fix Ukrainian AD assets.
MDCOA: Use of the newly announced Kub-10ME in a synchronized strike with Shahed-type UAVs to overwhelm medium-range AD systems.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Attrition: UAF General Staff reports a high attrition rate over the last 24 hours, claiming 1,070 Russian personnel, 3 tanks, and 893 drones (likely including small tactical units) neutralized (General Staff, 05:34).
Deep Strike Maneuver: UAF continues to demonstrate high-tempo UAV operations, penetrating deep into Smolensk Oblast despite Russian high-alert status following the overnight wave.
Information environment / disinformation
"US Restraint" Narrative: Previously marked as unconfirmed, reports of US "demarches" regarding Novorossiysk are gaining traction in both Ukrainian and Russian circles, citing specific economic links (CPC). This is being utilized by Russian media to portray a rift in the US-Ukraine partnership.
Telegram Restriction Rumors: Russian milbloggers (Two Majors, 05:28) are claiming Ukraine is planning to block Telegram to counter Russian information operations, likely a reflexive projection of Russia's own recent legal moves regarding the platform.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Aerial Activity: High probability of continued OWA-UAV transits through Chernihiv and Mykolaiv.
Environmental: Ongoing rain and drizzle in the Eastern sector (Pokrovsk/Svatove) will finalize the transition to "unpassable" for heavy off-road equipment.
Diplomatic: Potential for official Ukrainian government clarification or pushback regarding the reported US demarche on energy infrastructure strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TECHNICAL]: Determine if the "Kub-10ME" is currently deployed in theater or if the TASS announcement reflects a future capability.
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT]: Confirm the extent of damage at the Dorogobuzh chemical plant and its relevance to the Russian defense industrial base.
[OPERATIONAL]: Monitor the 29th Army's sector for potential localized infantry pushes under the cover of the current weather front.
