Ongoing KAB Strikes (02:33, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, continuing the saturation pattern noted in previous reports.
Widespread Air Alerts (02:19, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Air raid sirens active across Eastern and Southern Ukraine, correlating with the ongoing KAB and UAV activity.
Hybrid Threat Intelligence (02:10, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Intelligence reports indicate the Kremlin is utilizing a network of "Trojan horse" real estate assets (warehouses/houses) across 12+ European countries to facilitate coordinated sabotage operations.
Unconfirmed Armor Losses (02:12, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources claim the destruction of one M-113 and one FV-103 Spartan armored personnel carrier via drone strikes in the Kostiantynivka area.
Alleged Domestic Incident/Disinformation (02:20, НгП раZVедка, LOW): Russian-aligned channels are circulating low-quality footage alleging UAF Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) personnel fatally shot a civilian in Kryvyi Rih. This is assessed as a high-probability information operation designed to incite domestic unrest.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Weather (02:30 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk is 0.1°C with light snow; Luhansk/Svatove is 1.1°C with light rain.
Tactical Environment: 100% cloud cover and ongoing precipitation (snow/rain) continue to degrade visual ISR. No significant change in ground dispositions reported in the last 30 minutes.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk):
Weather (02:30 UTC): Pokrovsk is 2.0°C with light rain.
Tactical Activity: Kostiantynivka is identified as an active engagement zone for Russian loitering munitions/drones. The expansion of KAB strikes into Dnipropetrovsk indicates the enemy is targeting deeper logistics hubs beyond the immediate tactical depth of the Donetsk frontline.
Weather (02:30 UTC): Orikhiv is 1.6°C (overcast); Kherson is 0.6°C (overcast).
Tactical Activity: Zaporizhzhia OVA issued an immediate alert at 02:25, likely in response to the multi-vector UAV ingress or incoming ballistic/KAB threats. Ground conditions remain saturated (Rasputitsa), favoring static defense and standoff engagements.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: The enemy is maintaining a high tempo of standoff strikes (KAB/UAV) to compensate for limited ground maneuverability caused by 0-2°C temperatures and rain/snow. The focus remains on Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk.
Hybrid Operations: The identification of "Trojan horse" assets in Europe suggests a shift toward targeting Western supply lines at the source or storage points to disrupt the flow of aid before it reaches the theater.
Information Warfare: The rapid dissemination of the "Kryvyi Rih shooting" video indicates a prepared narrative to exploit mobilization tensions within Ukraine.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: High-readiness state maintained across the Eastern and Southern Air Commands. Real-time tracking of KAB-capable aircraft and UAV swarms is prioritized.
Tactical Defense: Units in the Kostiantynivka sector are facing increased FPV/loitering munition pressure on armored assets.
Information environment / disinformation
Sabotage Narrative: Ukrainian media is highlighting Russian sabotage networks in Europe to alert international partners and secure rear-area logistics.
Anti-Mobilization Agitation: Russian propaganda channels are actively promoting narratives of TCC violence (02:20) to degrade civilian morale and complicate recruitment efforts.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk to suppress C2 and logistics. UAV groups will likely continue to probe air defenses in Mykolaiv and Odesa.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated surge in sabotage activity within European logistical hubs synchronized with a large-scale missile/UAV strike to disrupt the arrival of critical munitions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL]: Verification of the "Trojan horse" real estate locations to assess immediate risks to UAF supply chains in Europe.
[TACTICAL]: Geolocation and verification of the alleged armor losses in Kostiantynivka (02:12) to determine if there is a local gap in short-range AD/EW.
[TECHNICAL]: Forensic analysis of the Kryvyi Rih video (02:20) to confirm it as a staged or misattributed incident for counter-disinformation messaging.
