Intensified KAB Bombardment (01:39–02:01, AFU, HIGH): Guided aerial bombs (KABs) have been launched targeting Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The expansion into Dnipropetrovsk indicates a westward shift in tactical aviation engagement zones.
Multi-Vector UAV Incursion (01:40–02:04, AFU, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs are currently active across multiple axes: approaching Mykolaiv from the west and south, entering northern Kharkiv (heading for Vilshany), and a new group arriving from the Black Sea toward Odesa.
Information Operation: Political Delegitimization (01:57, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian state media is circulating an interview with alleged ex-SBU employee Prozorov, framing Ukrainian leadership as Western "pawns." This coincides with the "fortress" posture and domestic consolidation noted in previous reports.
Russian Domestic Censorship (01:41, TASS, HIGH): Last.fm is facing significant fines (12 million rubles) for failing to remove restricted content, confirming an intensifying crackdown on foreign media services. (DS Belief: 1.0).
International Incident (01:40, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a Turkish F-16 has crashed on a highway in Turkey, resulting in a fire. While external to the immediate theater, it may impact regional aviation monitoring.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Weather (02:00 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk is 0.1°C with light snow (code 71) and 100% cloud cover. Svatove is 1.1°C with light rain.
Tactical Environment: A UAV group is currently transiting northern Kharkiv toward Vilshany (02:00). High cloud cover and freezing temperatures continue to complicate optical ISR, favoring low-altitude drone ingress over tactical aviation in this specific sector.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk):
Weather (02:00 UTC): Pokrovsk is 2.0°C with light rain (code 61).
Air Activity: Heavy KAB activity is reported across Donetsk and into eastern Dnipropetrovsk (02:01). This suggests the enemy is using guided munitions to strike beyond the immediate line of contact (LOC), likely targeting logistics hubs as the ground remains saturated (9.7mm projected rain for Pokrovsk).
3. Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Weather (02:00 UTC): Orikhiv (1.8°C) and Kherson (0.6°C) remain overcast.
UAV Incursions: Mykolaiv is under threat from two distinct UAV vectors (West/South). Simultaneously, a group of UAVs has been detected over the Black Sea heading for Odesa (02:04). This multi-directional approach is designed to overwhelm local Air Defense (AD) assets.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adjustments: The synchronized use of KABs in the East and multi-vector UAV strikes in the South indicates a coordinated effort to fix UAF air defense assets. The use of western and southern vectors for Mykolaiv suggests an attempt to exploit gaps in radar coverage over coastal areas.
Information Domain: The TASS interview (01:57) is a clear attempt at psychological manipulation, likely timed to coincide with military pressure to degrade Ukrainian civilian and military morale regarding their leadership's autonomy.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and reporting multiple aerial threats in real-time. Mobile fire groups are likely engaged in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv sectors.
Defensive Posture: No new ground counter-attacks have been reported in the last hour, suggesting a focus on force protection during the current KAB/UAV surge.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Push: Russian state media continues to push the "pawn" narrative (01:57) to undermine the legitimacy of President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny, attempting to sow internal discord within the UAF command structure.
Media Control: The legal pressure on Last.fm (01:41) serves as a deterrent to other platforms, ensuring the Russian domestic audience remains within a controlled information bubble.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv port/energy infrastructure. KAB strikes in Donetsk will likely focus on suppressing UAF artillery to prevent counter-battery fire during localized infantry probes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated UAV swarm targeting Odesa’s air defense radar sites, followed by a tactical aviation surge using KABs against regional C2 centers while the ground remains too soft for heavy mechanized movement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL]: Confirmation of specific impact points for KABs in Dnipropetrovsk to determine if the target set has shifted from tactical to operational-level logistics.
[TACTICAL]: Determination of the specific UAV models (Shahed-136 vs. newer variants) used in the multi-vector Mykolaiv approach to assess potential changes in enemy electronic warfare (EW) resistance.
[TECHNICAL]: Verification of the "wedge" reported at 01:31 (previous sitrep) remains a priority, as no new data has corroborated this penetration.
