Internal Security - Mykolaiv (17:39, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy and Interior Minister Klymenko have officially confirmed that the explosion injuring seven police officers is being investigated as a terrorist act. The SBU and National Police are conducting EOD assessments and forensics.
Energy Crisis (17:39, STERNENKO, HIGH): Slovakia has officially terminated emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine. Consequently, "Ukrenergo" announced that nationwide rolling blackout schedules will be implemented tomorrow, Feb 24 (18:02, РБК-Україна).
Strategic Deep Strike (18:04, КіберБорошно, MEDIUM): Ukrainian AN-196 "Lyutyi" UAVs reportedly struck the "Metafrax" plant (Perm region/Gubakha - implied by plant name), specifically targeting the rectification column in the methanol production block.
Air Operations (17:47-17:51, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Multiple groups of Russian Shahed-type UAVs are currently active. One group is moving south through Kharkiv Oblast (Zolochiv/Vilshany); another is transiting from Dnipropetrovsk toward Kirovohrad Oblast.
Russian UAV Activity (17:40, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims to have intercepted 45 Ukrainian UAVs over the last five hours across Krasnodar, the Black Sea, Crimea, Belgorod, and Bryansk.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Aerial Threat: Russian UAVs entered via the northern border, currently on a southern course toward the Kharkiv outskirts (17:47).
Pokrovsk Axis: Weather is 0.4°C and overcast. No new significant ground movements reported in the last hour, but the halt in ballistic threats (17:53) indicates a temporary pause in heavy standoff munitions.
Luhansk/Svatove: Currently -2.7°C, overcast. Humidity and cloud cover are 100%, limiting thermal and optical ISR.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
PsyOps Activity: In the "Vostok" grouping sector, Russian forces are using drones to drop "propaganda packages" containing surrender incentives, food, and currency (Euros) to mark the Feb 23 holiday (18:01, Colonelcassad).
Zaporizhzhia: Air raid alerts were cleared at 17:49 (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Weather: Zaporizhzhia (1.1°C) and Kherson (3.0°C) remain overcast. Logistics remain stable but vulnerable to the forecasted rain in Kherson.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: The use of UAVs to deliver physical propaganda (Vostok sector) suggests a localized effort to exploit perceived morale dips during holidays.
Hybrid Escalation: The Mykolaiv incident, now formally treated as a terrorist act, indicates a shift from infrastructure sabotage to targeted hits on security personnel to degrade domestic stability.
Course of Action: Likely continued OWA-UAV pressure on the Kharkiv-Kirovohrad axis through the night to further strain an energy grid already weakened by the Slovakian supply cutoff.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Attrition: UAF continues to prioritize the Russian chemical and energy industry, with the "Metafrax" strike targeting a critical node in methanol synthesis.
Counter-Sabotage: SBU and National Police are surging resources to Mykolaiv to identify the explosive signature and potential sleeper cells.
Air Defense: Active tracking of UAV groups in the North and Center-South; ballistic threat was successfully monitored and cleared (17:53).
Information environment / disinformation
Police Discreditation: Russian channels (e.g., НгП раZVедка) are circulating footage of a police-civilian altercation in Koziatyn (Vinnytsia), framing it as "Zelenskyy's Gestapo" to incite internal friction and complement the Mykolaiv terror narrative (17:41).
Economic Pressure: Pro-Russian milbloggers are amplifying Slovakian PM Fico’s "switch-off," framing it as a direct consequence of Ukrainian policy and an impending "dark winter" (17:51, Kotsnews; 17:52, Alex Parker Returns).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian UAV groups currently in flight will target energy infrastructure in central Ukraine to maximize the impact of the newly announced blackout schedules.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Secondary sabotage attacks in other rear cities (e.g., Odesa or Dnipro) following the Mykolaiv template to force a redistribution of frontline security forces to the interior.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE]: Visual confirmation of the rectification column damage at the Metafrax plant (UNCONFIRMED).
[TACTICAL]: Determine the specific launch sites for the UAV groups currently traversing Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk to enable counter-battery or OWA strikes on launch personnel.
[INTERNAL SECURITY]: Identify if the Mykolaiv explosive device matches the signature of previously intercepted GRU-linked "gray zone" devices used in European sabotage plots.
