Energy/Diplomacy (17:19, ТАСС, HIGH): Slovakian PM Robert Fico confirmed the cessation of emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, citing the halt of Russian oil transit via the "Druzhba" pipeline.
Internal Security - Mykolaiv (17:16, РБК-Україна, HIGH): An explosion at a non-operational gas station injured seven Ukrainian police officers during a shift change; two are in critical condition. The National Police Chief labeled the incident a "targeted act of destabilization" (17:29, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS).
Tactical - Zaporizhzhia Sector (17:22, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): GUR MO "Group 10" units documented combat operations in Stepnohirsk, successfully stalling Russian advances and capturing at least one enemy prisoner.
Air Defense / Threat (17:32, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Immediate warning issued regarding the threat of Russian ballistic missile use across unspecified sectors.
Kinetic - Kharkiv RMA (17:27, Oleg Sinegubov, HIGH): Reported morning strikes on critical infrastructure in Kharkiv and KAB (guided bomb) attacks on Novosylnove and Husynka.
Deep Strike / Rear (17:27, ASTRA, LOW): Reports indicate an "unknown drone" crashed in the territory of partially recognized Abkhazia. UNCONFIRMED.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Status: Kharkiv continues to face persistent aerial bombardment. RMA Head Sinegubov confirmed strikes on critical infrastructure and civilian areas (Novosylnove/Husynka).
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -3.3°C, overcast (98% cloud cover), with light winds (2.4 m/s). Conditions allow for low-altitude UAV flight but limit optical ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk Axis: High-intensity tactical engagements continue. UAF "Wormbusters" (414th Brigade, "Birds of Magyar") reported successful drone strikes against Russian personnel caught in wire obstacles (17:37, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС).
Russian Rear (Bryansk): Russian MoD claims the destruction of one UAF fixed-wing UAV over Bryansk Oblast (17:30, AV БогомаZ).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Stepnohirsk: GUR MO units are actively conducting defensive operations to prevent a Russian breakthrough.
Prymorske: Russian artillery reportedly targeted a civilian vehicle allegedly used for ammunition resupply in the northern part of the settlement (17:25, Дневник Десантника).
Weather: Kherson (3.1°C) and Zaporizhzhia (1.3°C) remain overcast. Kherson has a 93% probability of light rain, which will continue to degrade unpaved logistics routes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Infrastructure Targeting: Continued focus on the energy sector, now compounded by the Slovakian supply cutoff. The ballistic missile threat (17:32) suggests a potential coordinated strike on the remaining grid nodes.
Hybrid Operations: Reports of a former Krasnodar taxi driver executing arson/bombings in Europe (17:10, ЦАПЛІЄНКО citing NYT) and the Mykolaiv police bombing suggest an escalation in sabotage and "gray zone" operations intended to destabilize the rear.
Course of Action: Likely exploitation of the Mykolaiv incident through information channels to demoralize law enforcement and security services.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: GUR and 414th Brigade units are maintaining high tactical proficiency in Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk, utilizing specialized drone units to attrit Russian infantry in the "gray zone."
C2/RMA: Kharkiv regional authorities are prioritizing the "heating season" and power restoration despite ongoing KAB strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
"Druzhba" Collusion Narrative: Hungarian and Russian sources are aggressively promoting a narrative of "secret collusion" between Kyiv and Brussels to block oil transit, aiming to drive a wedge between Ukraine and Central European partners (17:34, Colonelcassad; 17:36, Alex Parker Returns).
Destabilization: Russian military correspondents (e.g., Военкор Котенок) are framing the Mykolaiv police bombing as part of a wider trend of internal Ukrainian instability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will likely launch the identified ballistic assets against energy or C2 targets within the next 2-4 hours to exploit current overcast conditions that hinder UAF visual detection of launch sites.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis missile strike combined with localized "reconnaissance in force" in the Stepnohirsk sector to capitalize on the GUR engagement.
Logistics: Expect immediate strain on the southern power grid following the Slovakian emergency supply suspension.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]: Confirm the specific impact of Russian artillery strikes on UAF logistics in Prymorske.
[HYBRID]: Identify the specific explosive device used in the Mykolaiv gas station incident to determine if it aligns with known GRU/FSB sabotage signatures.
[STRATEGIC]: Corroborate the NYT report regarding Alexei Kolosovsky's alleged sabotage cell in Europe.
[BATTLE DAMAGE]: Assess the severity of the infrastructure strikes reported by Kharkiv RMA this morning.
