Ballistic Strike on Pavlohrad (16:33, РБК-Україна, HIGH): An explosion was reported in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region, following a widespread ballistic missile threat alert across central and eastern Ukraine.
UAF Tactical Penetration in Zaporizhzhia (16:33, Рыбарь, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report limited Ukrainian penetration near Ternove on the Eastern Zaporizhzhia front. This indicates localized UAF initiative despite broader defensive operations.
Russian Advance Near Seversk (16:23, Сливочный каприз, LOW): Claims of a 600m Russian advance into Reznikovka (SW of Seversk). UNCONFIRMED.
Lviv IED Investigation Update (16:32, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Casualties from the Lviv explosion have risen to 12 (mostly first responders), with 2 in critical condition. A female suspect was detained; conflicting reports exist regarding her payoff (60,000 UAH vs. $60,000 USD) for the FSB-directed act.
Intensified FAB Strikes on Pokrovsk Flanks (16:09, Два майора, MEDIUM): Russian VKS conducted heavy aerial bomb strikes near Druzhkivka and Novooleksandrivka, supporting offensive maneuvers north of Hryshyno.
Border Zone Kinetic Activity (16:10, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Border Guards conducted drone strikes on Russian communications and equipment in the Kursk/North-Slobozhansky sector.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Environmental Factors: Temperatures are -4.1°C in Kharkiv and -5.8°C in Svatove. Clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows of -15.5°C are still forecasted for the overnight period, which will increase the thermal signature of personnel and equipment.
Dynamics: Ongoing "drone war" in the border regions. Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (44th Army Corps) is utilizing "Yastreb" reconnaissance UAVs for targeting in the Sumy direction (16:30, Два майора). UAF Border Guards are successfully countering with strikes on Russian shelters and comms nodes (16:10, РБК-Україна).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Seversk Axis: Potential Russian tactical gain of 600m in Reznikovka indicates a push to flatten the Siversk salient from the south.
Pokrovsk Axis: Temperature is -0.8°C. Russian forces are expanding the use of FABs beyond Hryshyno to include Druzhkivka and Novooleksandrivka, suggesting a broadening of the corridor intended for ground assault.
Rear Area: Missile alerts were active in Bryansk (Russia) but were cleared by 16:33 (AV БогомаZ).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia Front: Movement near Ternove suggests UAF is testing Russian defensive lines in the east of the sector.
Logistics/Rear: The ballistic strike on Pavlohrad (16:33) likely targeted the rail/logistics hub supporting the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities/Tactics: Russia is maintaining a high tempo of ballistic threats to fix UAF air defenses across multiple oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad).
Course of Action (COA): The use of proxy-led IEDs (Lviv) suggests a Russian effort to strain Ukrainian internal security and first-responder resources, creating a "second front" of domestic instability.
C2 Adaptations: Continued emphasis on UAV "crews" (e.g., "Yastreb") indicates Russian integration of specialized drone reconnaissance at the regimental level.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Response: UAF continues to utilize Border Guard and Special Ops units for deep-tactical drone strikes into Russian border oblasts to disrupt C2 and EW equipment.
Counter-Tactics: UAF air defense remains on high alert for ballistic threats; however, the impact in Pavlohrad suggests gaps in interception for high-velocity assets in the Dnipro-Donetsk corridor.
Information environment / disinformation
Fake NATO Narratives: Russian channels are circulating a fabricated quote attributed to "UK Defence Minister John Hilly" (likely a misspelling of John Healey) claiming a desire to send troops to Ukraine (16:23, Два майора). This is a standard disinformation trope to justify Russian "defensive" aggression against NATO.
Hybrid Warfare: The Lviv IED is being framed by Ukrainian sources as an FSB operation leveraging financially vulnerable local citizens (16:23, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued ballistic and FAB pressure on Ukrainian logistics hubs (Pavlohrad/Pokrovsk). Overnight temperatures (-15°C) will force a reduction in infantry activity, likely leading to an increase in standoff drone and artillery exchanges.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated ballistic/UAV swarm targeting the Ukrainian energy grid during the peak overnight cold, attempting to trigger localized heating failures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Determine the specific target and damage levels of the ballistic strike in Pavlohrad.
[SITUATIONAL AWARENESS] Corroborate Russian claims of the 600m advance in Reznikovka and the UAF penetration near Ternove via geolocation.
[HYBRID THREAT] Assess the potential for further IED attacks in Western Ukrainian cities (Lviv/Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk) following the detention of the Lviv suspect.
