Increased UAV Pressure on Moscow (15:37, TASS, MEDIUM): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reports the number of intercepted Ukrainian UAVs on the approach to the capital has risen to 18 (up from 15 reported in the previous window).
Major UAF Counter-Attack Claim (15:38, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, LOW): Ukrainian Air Assault Forces (DSHV) claim to have regained control of 8 settlements and over 300 sq. km in the Oleksandrivka direction. UNCONFIRMED.
Hungarian Veto Threat (15:38, РБК-Україна, HIGH): FM Szijjártó has threatened to block the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia unless Ukraine restores oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline.
Heavy Strike on Hryshyno (15:41, Kotsnews, MEDIUM): Russian sources released footage of a heavy aerial bomb (FAB) strike allegedly destroying a Ukrainian 59th Brigade outpost northwest of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk).
Strike on Snihurivka (15:40, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Russian forces conducted a drone strike targeting Snihurivka, Mykolaiv region, according to local authorities.
Kharkiv Air Threat (16:04, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force reports UAVs active in the Kharkiv region near Malynivka, heading toward Slobozhanske.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Environmental Factors: Temperatures are dropping significantly. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -3.6°C (82% cloud cover); Luhansk/Svatove is -5.1°C (clear). Overnight lows are forecasted to reach -14.7°C to -15.5°C, which will severely impact personnel endurance and battery-operated equipment (drones/radios).
Dynamics: Ongoing aerial threats in the Kharkiv region (Malynivka/Slobozhanske). UAF "Shadow" unit documented FPV strikes on Russian dugouts in snowy conditions, confirming active small-unit kinetic engagements (15:42, Підрозділ Shadow).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk Axis: Temperature is -0.5°C with 4.7 m/s winds. The use of heavy FAB strikes near Hryshyno indicates Russian intent to degrade UAF defensive outposts ahead of potential ground maneuvers.
Donetsk/Rear: Pro-Russian structures held a "Maslenitsa" celebration in Picnic Park "Roshcha," utilizing civil-military events for morale and propaganda purposes linked to Defender of the Fatherland Day (15:42, Народная милиция ДНР).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Environmental Factors: Milder but freezing tonight. Orikhiv is 1.9°C; Kherson is 2.0°C.
Oleksandrivka Direction: While the DSHV reports significant gains (300 sq. km), specific geolocation and corroboration are currently lacking. If confirmed, this represents a major tactical shift.
Rear Area Strikes: Snihurivka (Mykolaiv) remains a target for Russian drone interdiction (15:40, РБК-Україна).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (COA): Russian forces are increasingly utilizing heavy glide bombs (FABs) to bypass tactical stalemates in the Pokrovsk sector. This indicates a shift from small-unit infantry attrition to precision-heavy standoff engagement against fixed UAF positions.
Operational Security (OPSEC): Russian mil-bloggers (15:58, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) are amplifying state media claims that Russian forces are avoiding Telegram in the combat zone. While likely an exaggeration for OPSEC optics, it may indicate a push for more secure, centralized C2 systems.
International/Hybrid Ops: Russia continues to benefit from Hungarian diplomatic friction within the EU, specifically regarding the 20th sanctions package and oil transit (15:43, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Continuation: The UAV campaign against Moscow has maintained its momentum for over two hours, forcing the Kremlin to continuously update interception counts (15:37, TASS).
Mobile Defense: UAF units (Khartia, 59th Mech, Shadow) remain heavily reliant on FPV drones for tactical defense, though they are facing increased pressure from Russian heavy aviation.
Counter-Offensive Potential: The claimed gains in the Oleksandrivka direction by DSHV units (15:38, ЦАПЛІЄНКО) require immediate verification to assess if a localized counter-offensive is underway.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Messaging: Ukrainian channels are hosting high-level podcasts (National Bank Governor Pyshnyi) to project economic stability (15:54, STERNENKO).
Sanctions Narrative: The Hungarian veto threat is being framed by Ukrainian sources as "blackmail" (15:43, ЦАПЛІЄНКО), highlighting internal EU tensions.
Russian Soft Power: Russian regional governors (Lipetsk) are emphasizing infrastructure and drone training for students to normalize the "special military operation" to domestic audiences (15:56, Igor Artamonov).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue FAB-enabled strikes in the Pokrovsk sector to capitalize on identified UAF outposts. Extreme cold (-15°C) will likely reduce infantry movement, favoring static artillery and aerial bombardment.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A confirmed UAF breakthrough in the Oleksandrivka direction could trigger an aggressive Russian escalation in the Southern sector, possibly involving maritime-launched missiles to interdict UAF logistics.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[GEOLOCATION] Urgent confirmation and mapping of the 8 settlements and 300 sq. km area allegedly liberated by DSHV in the Oleksandrivka direction (15:38, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Verify the status of the 59th Brigade outpost near Hryshyno following the reported FAB strike (15:41, Kotsnews).
[LOGISTICS] Monitor the impact of the Druzhba pipeline transit dispute on Ukrainian fuel reserves and Hungarian diplomatic posturing.
