Massive UAF UAV Incursion (15:29, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims to have intercepted 71 Ukrainian UAVs within a two-hour window across multiple regions. Notably, 15 were reported over the Moscow region, with 11 specifically targeting the capital.
Moscow Airspace Suspension (15:31, ASTRA, HIGH): Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo airports have again suspended all flight operations due to the ongoing drone threat. Russian AD remains active in the Podmoskovye area (15:35, Colonelcassad).
Strike on Russian Logistics/Drone Depot (15:32, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, LOW): Ukrainian drone footage allegedly shows a successful strike on a Russian military equipment hangar. The report claims the destruction of a drone storage depot and multiple vehicles. UNCONFIRMED.
Continued Pressure North of Pokrovsk (15:14, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Air Assault Forces (DSHV) report that Russian units persist in attempts to advance in the northern Pokrovsk sector.
Precision FPV Engagement (15:17, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): The "Perun" Unmanned Systems Battalion of the UAF 42nd Mechanized Brigade executed a precision strike against a concentrated group of Russian personnel.
Lviv IED Investigation (15:24, Операция Z, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources amplified Ukrainian police footage showing the arrest of a woman from the Rivne region suspected of planting the IED in Lviv previously reported.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Environmental Factors: Sub-zero temperatures persist. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -2.9°C (overcast); Luhansk/Svatove is -4.6°C (mainly clear).
Dynamics: Kinetic activity remains focused on drone-led interdictions. UAF 42nd Mechanized Brigade is active in this sector, utilizing "Perun" drone assets for precision strikes.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk Axis: Temperature is -0.3°C with 3.9 m/s winds. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure north of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian DSHV units are actively engaged in defensive maneuvers to prevent a breakthrough.
Logistics Interdiction: UAF continues to prioritize the destruction of Russian equipment concentrations and drone storage facilities (hangars) to degrade Russian tactical capabilities.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Environmental Factors: Milder than northern sectors. Orikhiv is 2.1°C; Kherson is 1.9°C.
Status: No new significant kinetic engagements or territorial changes reported in this 30-minute window.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Air Defense Posture: Russian Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) are currently saturated in the Moscow region. The recurrence of airport shutdowns indicates significant concern regarding the penetration of UAF long-range strike assets.
Tactical Intentions: Continued pressure in Pokrovsk indicates that Russian command is prioritizing this axis despite the high-intensity air threat to their rear.
Logistics Vulnerability: The reported strike on a drone depot (if confirmed) highlights a critical vulnerability in Russian forward-deployed technical assets, which are difficult to replace under current conditions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF is currently conducting a high-volume, multi-vector UAV campaign against Russian territory, successfully fixing Russian AD assets and disrupting civil aviation in Moscow.
Tactical Defensive: UAF 42nd Mech and DSHV units are successfully integrating drone and tube artillery to disrupt Russian small-unit maneuvers in the East.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Rhetoric: Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova is framing the current "crisis" as an EU failure requiring "repentance," likely a narrative aimed at undermining Western resolve (15:15, ТАСС).
Morale/PsyOps: Ukrainian channels are utilizing "Hero of Russia" memorial footage to mock initial Russian invasion timelines ("Kyiv in 3 days"), aiming to highlight the human cost of the war to Russian domestic audiences (15:30, Оперативний ЗСУ).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAF will continue to leverage the current UAV incursion to identify gaps in Russian AD. Russian forces will likely retaliate with localized missile or Shahed strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, following the pattern established in the previous 24 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed Russian missile strike timed to coincide with the extreme temperature drop (-15°C forecasted for the North) could cause a critical failure in the Ukrainian energy grid.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Seek independent confirmation and geolocation of the Russian drone/equipment hangar strike (15:32, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
[TACTICAL] Identify the "two conditions" mentioned by NATO sources for Ukraine to change the front (15:36, РБК-Україна).
[OPERATIONAL] Monitor for movements of the Beriev Be-200 aircraft (15:29, Fighterbomber); determine if these assets are being staged for logistical support or firefighting roles related to potential rear-area strikes.
