Major Strike on Kyiv and Energy Infrastructure (05:16 - 05:34): Russian sources claim a wave of 15-19 missiles, including high-end "Zircon" and "Iskander" munitions, targeted Kyiv. Concurrently, reports indicate a strike on the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) (Dva Mayora, 05:16, 05:34, MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE; Tkachenko/RBC-Ukraine, 05:34, reports no consequences/impact in Kyiv, CONTESTED).
Kinetic Activity in Mykolaiv (05:11 - 05:28): An explosion was reported in Mykolaiv following the approach of a "Shahed" type UAV from the direction of the "Poligon" (Vanek, Suspilne via RBC-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Polish Air Force Mobilization (05:32): Poland activated its aircraft and brought air defense systems to high readiness in response to the massive Russian missile/UAV wave across Ukraine (RBC-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Civilian Casualties (05:10): Two civilians were killed in the Polohivskyi district following Russian attacks (Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Long-Range Drone Campaign (05:21 - 05:29): Russian MoD claims a total of 86 UAF drones were intercepted overnight across Russia and Crimea. One civilian was reportedly wounded in Podyvotye, Bryansk region (Dva Mayora, ASTRA, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Donetsk Offensive (05:35): Russian forces (150th Motor Rifle Division) have reportedly launched an offensive toward Dobropillya, targeting UAF Unmanned Systems Forces (Operator Z, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Weather: Extreme cold persists. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -12.9°C (23% cloud cover); Luhansk/Svatove is at -12.3°C (0% cloud cover) (Weather Context, 05:30). These conditions remain optimal for IR-based ISR but present high risk for personnel and equipment maintenance.
Strategic Reserve: Russian command is reportedly attempting to form and deploy strategic reserves toward the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk axis, aiming for a "decisive success" in the Donbas (Zvizdets Mangustu, 05:20).
2. Central Sector (Kyiv/Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih):
Kyiv: Contested reports regarding the effectiveness of the overnight missile wave. RU sources claim strikes on energy infrastructure (Trypilska TPP), while UA sources deny significant damage in the capital.
Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih: Nikopol district remains under artillery fire; one civilian injury reported. Conditions in Kryvyi Rih are described as "controlled" despite local industrial blasting and enemy pressure (Vilkul, 05:35).
Mykolaiv: Active engagement of UAVs (1 identified as "moped" approaching from the south) resulted in at least one confirmed explosion (Vanek, Suspilne).
Zaporizhzhia: Under 100% cloud cover (-2.5°C). Russian state media claims to have destroyed a UAF column/rotation in the region (Basurin, 05:27, UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE).
Casualties: Fatalities in Polohivskyi district confirm continued high-intensity shelling along the contact line.
Enemy analysis (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The RU VKS has escalated the quality of munitions used (Zircon/Iskander), likely seeking to penetrate the reinforced IADS around Kyiv and critical energy nodes like the Trypilska TPP. This aligns with a strategy to maximize grid instability during the current deep freeze (-12.9°C).
Tactical Changes: RU forces are specifically targeting UAF "Unmanned Systems Forces" control points and antennas in the Dobropillya direction (Donetsk), indicating a localized effort to degrade UAF drone superiority (Operator Z, 05:35).
Logistics: Russian internal focus on a "pregnancy register" (TASS) and administrative control measures suggest long-term demographic and social management, though this has no immediate tactical impact.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Operations: Continued high-volume drone strikes (up to 86 units) into RU territory (Bryansk/Belgorod/Crimea) indicate a sustained effort to disrupt RU logistics and air defense depth.
Force Posture: High personnel attrition of RU forces (+890 in 24 hours) reported by the General Staff (05:26) suggests successful defensive engagements despite the current RU offensive pressure in Donetsk.
Information environment / disinformation
Kyiv Damage Narrative: A sharp divergence exists between RU milbloggers claiming "15-19 missiles" and UA officials denying consequences. This suggests a RU effort to project a narrative of "decisive success" to domestic audiences and the Kremlin (Zvizdets Mangustu, 05:34).
Zaporizhzhia Shelling: RU sources continue to frame tactical engagements (like the alleged column destruction) as evidence of UA failure, while local administrations emphasize civilian victimization.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU forces will continue individual UAV strikes on Mykolaiv and southern hubs while conducting BDA of the Kyiv/Trypilska TPP strikes. Expect continued artillery pressure on Nikopol to fix UAF forces.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary missile wave, potentially utilizing the "pulsed" tactic observed in the previous sitrep, targeting the already degraded Zaporizhzhia power grid during the evening peak load.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Independent verification of the status of Trypilska TPP and any impact on the Kyiv regional grid.
[TACTICAL] Confirmation of the reported RU offensive toward Dobropillya and the status of UAF drone control nodes in that sector.
[RESERVES] Identification of specific Russian units being formed as "strategic reserves" for the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk axis.
[CASUALTY VALIDATION] Visual confirmation of the alleged UAF column destruction in Zaporizhzhia to distinguish between propaganda and tactical reality.
