Ballistic Strike on Kropyvnytskyi (04:47 - 04:54): A multi-missile ballistic attack targeted Central Ukraine. Initially tracked toward Kremenchuk, the missiles re-vectored to Kropyvnytskyi, where multiple explosions occurred. Unofficial reports indicate all ballistic targets were successfully intercepted (Air Force, Vanek, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Regional Grid Collapse (04:38 - 04:42): Approximately 50% of the Zaporizhzhia region is currently without power. Russian occupation officials attribute the blackout to "UAF shelling," while Ukrainian local authorities report two civilian fatalities resulting from Russian kinetic activity in the region (TASS, ASTRA, MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE on outage; LOW CONFIDENCE on RU attribution).
Residual UAV Threat to Kyiv (04:46): Three "Shahed-type" UAVs remain active and are approaching Kyiv from multiple vectors (Vanek, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New UAV Wave toward Mykolaiv (05:06): A group of UAVs has been detected approaching Mykolaiv from the south, indicating a potential maritime-launch vector from the Black Sea (Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF Long-Range Drone Campaign (04:51 - 04:56): RU MoD claims to have intercepted 86 UAF drones overnight, including 9 over Bryansk and others targeting the Belgorod region (Krasivo), where two civilians were reportedly wounded (TASS, ASTRA, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
RU Command Change (05:06): Reports indicate a leadership change in the Russian Naval Infantry (Marines), with a "General Fedorov" reportedly replacing the previous commander amid internal dissatisfaction (Dva Mayora, MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Tactical Strike: RU forces utilized guided FAB-500 munitions against a reported concentration of the UAF 72nd Brigade southeast of Staritsa, Kharkiv region (Colonelcassad, 05:03).
Weather: Extreme cold remains a critical factor for ISR and personnel. Kharkiv/Vovchansk and Luhansk/Svatove are currently -13.7°C with clear skies, providing high thermal contrast for Russian IR-equipped drones (Weather Context, 05:00).
2. Central Sector (Kropyvnytskyi/Kremenchuk):
This sector was the primary focal point of a ballistic missile wave between 04:47 and 04:54 UTC. The shift from cruise missiles (previous SitRep) to ballistics suggests a deliberate attempt to overwhelm AD systems following the initial saturation wave.
Zaporizhzhia: The region is overcast (-2.9°C) with 100% cloud cover. The massive power outage (50% of the region) significantly degrades civilian infrastructure and potentially complicates UAF logistics in the Orikhiv axis.
Mykolaiv: Under active UAV threat as of 05:06 UTC.
Tactical Adaptation: The RU VKS has transitioned from a mass cruise missile/UAV strike to a "pulsed" attack method, launching ballistic missiles (likely Iskander-M or KN-23) shortly after the cruise missile wave subsided. This is a classic "second-wave" tactic designed to strike while AD assets are reloading or repositioning.
Naval Infantry Restructuring: The reported replacement of the Marine commander suggests RU High Command is addressing operational failures or morale issues within elite units often used for high-intensity assaults.
Logistics/Sustainment: Continued focus on the Zaporizhzhia energy grid suggests a localized effort to freeze UAF movements and disrupt C2 in the southern theater.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Integrated Air Defense (IADS): Successful engagement of ballistic targets over Kropyvnytskyi indicates high readiness and effective target hand-off between radar sectors.
Asymmetric Strikes: UAF continues to maintain pressure on RU border regions (Belgorod/Bryansk) using long-range UAVs, likely targeting RU electronic warfare (EW) or air defense nodes to facilitate ongoing defense of the northern border.
Information environment / disinformation
Peace Negotiation Narratives: US Special Representative Vitkoff is being quoted (Fox News via RBC-Ukraine) regarding a potential Zelensky-Putin-Trump summit within three weeks. This is likely being amplified to soften domestic expectations for continued high-intensity conflict (RBC-Ukraine, 04:38).
External Management Trope: Former PM Azarov (in exile) is pushing the narrative that "external management" is the only solution for Ukraine, a standard RU talking point aimed at undermining Ukrainian sovereignty (TASS, 04:58).
Zaporizhzhia Attribution: Conflicting reports regarding the cause of the Zaporizhzhia blackout (UAF shelling vs. RU strikes) indicate a contested narrative space in the South.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Consolidation of the UAV threat over Mykolaiv and Kyiv. RU forces will likely conduct BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Kropyvnytskyi strike area using high-altitude ISR (ZALA/Orlan) due to clear skies in the North/East.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A third wave of maritime-launched Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, coordinated with the arrival of the Mykolaiv UAV group, to exploit the current energy instability in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirmation of the specific launch platforms for the Kropyvnytskyi ballistic wave (Ground-based Iskander vs. Air-launched Kinzhal).
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Visual verification of the impacts in Kropyvnytskyi; assessment of whether "all minus" refers to full interception or partial mission failure.
[ENERGY GRID] Independent verification of the technical cause of the 50% Zaporizhzhia blackout.
[C2] Confirmation of the appointment of "General Fedorov" and the specific units impacted by the Marine command change.
