Mass Combined Strike on Kyiv (04:10 - 04:14): A coordinated "time-on-target" strike involving over 10 cruise missiles (Kh-101) and at least 7 Shahed-type UAVs converged on Kyiv simultaneously, resulting in a series of explosions (Vanek, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Strike on Trypilska TPP (04:24): The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in the Obukhiv/Ukrainka area is reportedly under attack by both missiles and drones (Tsaplienko, MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Residential Impact in Kyiv (04:35): A high-rise residential building in the Sviatoshynskyi district of Kyiv was struck, causing a fire on the roof; casualty information is currently being clarified (KMVA, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Missile Threat Abatement (04:33 - 04:34): The active cruise missile phase of the attack appears to have concluded with air raid alerts beginning to clear across several regions (Vanek, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Persistent UAV Threat (04:35): Despite the end of the missile wave, all remaining groups of Shahed-type UAVs are maintaining a course toward Kyiv/Kyiv region (AFU Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Unconfirmed Regional Blackout (04:20): Pro-Russian sources claim the Zaporizhzhia region is completely without power due to "UAF shelling" (Mash on Donbas, UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kyiv/Zhytomyr):
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: The focal point of the engagement. Kinetic impacts confirmed in the Sviatoshynskyi district (residential) and the Obukhiv/Ukrainka axis (energy infrastructure).
Transit Corridors: Missiles were tracked moving from northern Vinnytsia toward the Zhytomyr region (04:07) before re-vectoring toward the capital.
Weather: Extreme cold persists. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -13.8°C (clear), and Luhansk/Svatove is -14.1°C (clear). Wind remains low (0.7-1.0 m/s), facilitating stable flight for slow-moving UAVs (Weather Context, 04:30).
2. Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Odesa Axis: At 04:13, at least one missile was detected in northern Odesa Oblast on a southerly heading.
Zaporizhzhia: Regional conditions are overcast with a temperature of -3.0°C and higher winds (4.5 m/s). Claims of a total regional blackout are noted but lack corroboration from official Ukrainian energy operators (Weather Context, Mash).
3. Central Sector:
Following the transit of the Kh-101 groups toward Kyiv, the central regions are currently transitioning to post-strike reconnaissance and damage assessment.
Enemy analysis (Threat Assessment)
Targeting Strategy: The RU VKS has clearly prioritized the energy sector (Trypilska TPP) and high-density urban areas (Kyiv). The use of the "snake" formation for UAVs (identified in previous reports) combined with a simultaneous cruise missile arrival indicates a high level of synchronization intended to saturate Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS).
Course of Action: With the missile wave dissipated, RU forces are now relying on remaining UAV groups to conduct "mop-up" strikes or identify remaining active AD batteries.
Potential New Axis: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying claims of a planned spring offensive toward Pavlohrad (Operation Z, LOW CONFIDENCE). This may be a narrative-shaping effort to force UAF resource diversion from the Donbas.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Engagement: Heavy activity reported over Kyiv and surrounding districts.
Emergency Response: State Emergency Service (DSNS) and KMVA units are responding to the residential fire in Sviatoshynskyi.
Grid Management: Energy operators are likely implementing emergency protocols following the reported strike on Trypilska TPP to stabilize the Northern power node.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Attribution Manipulation: RU sources (Mash) are attributing power outages in Zaporizhzhia to UAF shelling, likely to deflect from the widespread RU aero-kinetic campaign against the Ukrainian grid.
Factual Inaccuracies: RBC-Ukraine reported German politician Friedrich Merz as "Chancellor" in the context of EU-US trade negotiations; Merz is currently the opposition leader, not the Chancellor.
Strategic Bluster: RU Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted 86 UAF drones overnight (TASS, 04:19), a figure that remains unverified.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV interceptions over Kyiv for the next 1-2 hours. Focus will shift to Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) at Trypilska TPP and residential recovery in Sviatoshynskyi.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary "cold-start" missile wave from RU strategic bombers or maritime platforms while emergency crews are exposed at impact sites and AD magazines are depleted from the 04:00-04:30 engagement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Visual or technical confirmation of the functional status of Trypilska TPP.
[CASUALTY REPORTING] Final numbers from the Sviatoshynskyi residential strike.
[GRID STATUS] Verification of the reported Zaporizhzhia blackout and its actual cause (internal RU strike collateral vs. alleged UAF action).
[TACTICAL] Identification of the current positions of the "all groups" of UAVs mentioned by the Air Force at 04:35.
