Hypersonic Strike on Kyiv (02:13 - 02:17): 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles were launched from occupied Crimea, transiting Mykolaiv and Cherkasy Oblasts toward Kyiv, Obukhiv, and Boryspil. Multiple high-speed targets were engaged (AFU Air Force, Vanek, 02:13-02:17, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Secondary Ballistic Wave (02:27 - 02:31): A mass ballistic launch from Bryansk Oblast (RU) targeted Kyiv. At least 8 ballistic trajectories were tracked in two waves (4+2+2), occurring simultaneously with UAV incursions (AFU Air Force, Vanek, 02:27, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Strategic Aviation Activity (02:33): Several Tu-95MS strategic bombers are conducting pre-launch maneuvers in the Volgodonsk region. Preliminary reports indicate cruise missile launches have likely occurred (Vanek, RBC-Ukraine, 02:33, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Kinetic Impacts in Kropyvnytskyi (02:17): Explosions were confirmed in Kropyvnytskyi following "high-speed" missile alerts (Suspilne, RBC-Ukraine, 02:17, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Simultaneous UAV Pressure (02:08 - 02:28): A new group of UAVs entered northern Sumy Oblast, while at least 3 "mopeds" (Shahed-type) arrived over Kyiv simultaneously with ballistic impacts (AFU Air Force, Vanek, 02:08, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
Kyiv Hub: The capital is currently the center of gravity for a coordinated multi-axis strike. The combination of hypersonic (South), ballistic (North), and slow-moving UAVs indicates an attempt to overwhelm the Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) through saturation and velocity variation.
Sumy/Chernihiv: New UAV groups are entering via northern Sumy, likely serving as "fixers" for air defense units or heading toward Poltava/Chernihiv.
Weather: Extreme cold continues to stress equipment and personnel. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is recorded at -13.9°C (66% cloud), and Svatove is at -14.0°C (clear) (Weather Context, 02:30).
2. Central & Southern Sectors:
Kropyvnytskyi/Cherkasy: This corridor is being used as a primary flight path for hypersonic assets launched from Crimea. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi suggest either successful intercepts or impacts on transit-route infrastructure.
Southern Coast: Overcast conditions (100% cloud) persist in Kherson (-2.2°C) and Orikhiv (-2.8°C) (Weather Context, 02:30).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation (Complex Integration): The Russian VKS has transitioned to a highly complex strike profile. By synchronizing Zircon (hypersonic), Iskander/KN-23 (ballistic), and Shahed (UAV) arrivals, they are attempting to exploit the different engagement envelopes of Ukrainian AD systems (e.g., forcing Patriot/SAMP-T to prioritize ballistics while UAVs penetrate lower-tier defenses).
Strategic Intent: The activation of Tu-95MS bombers suggests this is the "main effort" of a 24-hour escalation cycle, likely targeting the energy grid during peak cold temperatures (-14°C) to cause systemic failure.
Logistics/C2: Russian MoD's insistence on using "standard" communication (previous sitrep) contrasts with the highly fluid, multi-vector coordination seen in this morning's strike, which requires sophisticated C2.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: UAF AD units are heavily engaged in Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi, and along the southern vector. Interception of "high-speed" targets (Zircon/Ballistic) over Kyiv confirms the readiness of high-end AD assets.
Active Defense: Mobile fire groups are currently tracking "mopeds" in the Kyiv and Sumy regions to preserve high-cost interceptors for the incoming Tu-95MS cruise missile wave.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative: Former PM Mykola Azarov, via TASS (02:34), is amplifying the narrative that the EU intends to fight "until the last Ukrainian," a classic reflexive control tactic aimed at undermining western support during major kinetic escalations.
Domestic (RU): Russian milbloggers (Operatsiya Z) are immediately amplifying "mass explosions" in Kyiv to project a sense of overwhelming force to domestic audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Arrival of Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from the Tu-95MS bombers within the next 60–90 minutes. This will likely be timed with a final "mop-up" UAV wave to target energy substations and repair crews already hampered by extreme cold.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the Kyiv hydro-electric or thermal power hubs during the cruise missile wave, combined with a secondary hypersonic surge from the south, aimed at causing a total blackout in the capital region.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Identification of impact points in Kropyvnytskyi and Kyiv to determine if the targets were military C2, energy, or civilian infrastructure.
[TECHNICAL INTEL] Confirmation of the number of successful Zircon intercepts to assess current AD effectiveness against hypersonic threats.
[OPERATIONAL] Monitoring of Tu-95MS flight paths to determine if a secondary launch from the Caspian Sea axis is planned.
