New UAV Incursion (Belgorod Axis): At 01:34, a new wave of Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belgorod Oblast (RU), transiting southern Sumy (Okhtyrka, Trostyanets, Lebedyn, Nyzy) toward northern Poltava (Zinkiv, Hadiach, Hrebinka) and Cherkasy (AFU Air Force, 01:34, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Southern UAV Vector: A separate group of UAVs is active in southern Kherson, tracking toward the southern Mykolaiv region (AFU Air Force, 01:36, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Reduction of Alert Levels in RU Border Regions: Official sources in Bryansk and Lipetsk (RU) have issued "all clear" notices regarding drone threats, indicating a cessation or neutralization of UAF drone activity in those sectors (AV Bogomaz, 01:09; Igor Artamonov, 01:19, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Informational Shaping: State media is disseminating claims that Ukraine's EU accession would "strike a blow" to the Union, likely aimed at undermining European political cohesion during the current escalation (TASS, 01:18, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Poltava/Kharkiv):
UAV Transit: The Sumy-Poltava-Cherkasy corridor is currently an active transit route for Russian UAVs launched from Belgorod. This confirms a multi-axis approach intended to penetrate deeper into the central Ukrainian interior.
Weather: Extreme cold persists. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -13.9°C with 65% cloud cover. Svatove (Luhansk axis) is recorded at -14.3°C (01:30, Weather Context). These temperatures provide high thermal contrast for ISR but place severe stress on energy infrastructure and personnel.
2. Central Sector (Poltava/Cherkasy/Kirovohrad):
Threat Density: UAVs are converging on Cherkasy from both the east (Poltava) and the southeast (Kirovohrad). This suggests Cherkasy may be a primary target or a waypoint for redistribution toward western Ukraine.
3. Southern Sector (Kherson/Mykolaiv/Odesa):
Kinetic Activity: New UAV movements from southern Kherson toward Mykolaiv indicate continued pressure on the Black Sea coastal defense network.
Weather: Kherson and Orikhiv remain overcast (100% cloud) with temperatures at -2.0°C and -2.7°C, respectively (01:30, Weather Context). Wind speeds of 4.0-4.3 m/s are within operational limits for Shahed-type platforms.
4. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Status: Previous reports of KAB (guided bomb) strikes continue to define this sector.
Weather: Pokrovsk is at -6.0°C with 38% cloud cover. The relatively lower cloud ceiling in the south-east compared to the north may facilitate closer tactical air support if visibility permits.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA) Analysis: The Russian VKS is utilizing a "saturation-then-strike" pattern. By filling multiple transit corridors (Sumy-Poltava and Kherson-Mykolaiv) with UAVs, they are forcing UAF Air Defense (AD) to expend munitions and reveal positions.
Logistics/Sustainment: The launch of a fresh wave from Belgorod (01:34) confirms that Russian forces maintain significant ready-to-launch UAV stocks near the northern border, facilitating short flight times to Sumy and Poltava.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD units are actively tracking and engaging the multi-vector UAV ingress. Mobile fire groups are likely the primary response for the Poltava/Cherkasy transit routes to preserve high-tier interceptors for the anticipated missile wave.
Civil Defense: High alert levels remain in central and northern oblasts as UAVs approach regional hubs.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Diversion: While tactical aviation and UAVs are actively striking Ukraine, Russian state media (TASS) is focusing on high-level political commentary regarding EU stability. This is a classic "maskirovka" in the cognitive domain, attempting to frame the conflict's outcome as an existential threat to European institutions rather than a regional military aggression.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAVs will continue to loiter and penetrate westward (Cherkasy/Vinnytsia) to fix UAF AD. This will likely be followed by a massed missile strike between 04:00 and 07:00 UTC, targeting the power grid during the morning demand peak and extreme cold.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Integrated UAV/Missile strikes specifically targeting substations and distribution hubs in Poltava and Cherkasy to create a localized "blackout zone" that disrupts military logistics moving toward the eastern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Identification of specific launch platforms (land-based vs. maritime) for the southern UAV wave moving toward Mykolaiv.
[TACTICAL] Confirmation of the status of regional power infrastructure in the Sumy/Poltava corridor following the latest UAV transit.
[TECHNICAL] Monitoring for changes in UAV flight profiles (e.g., altitude or electronic countermeasures) that may indicate the deployment of the previously reported "Oko" VTOL drones in a guidance role.
