Lviv Fatality & Tactical Detail: Lviv Regional Prosecutor’s Office confirms a 23-year-old female police officer was killed after responding to a "false call" that preceded the attack (00:41, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Casualty Increase (Lviv): Total injured in the Lviv "terrorist attack" has risen to 15 (00:45, Mayor Andriy Sadovyi, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Active KAB Sorties: Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against targets in both Sumy and Donetsk regions (00:41, 00:42, Air Force of the AFU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAV Vector Expansion: New groups of UAVs are transitioning from Donetsk toward southern Kharkiv (00:38) and moving west through Kirovohrad (Znamianka axis) and Cherkasy (Smila-Tsvitkove axis) (00:46, 00:57, Air Force of the AFU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New Technical Capability: Russian forces claim the deployment of "Oko-2" and "Oko-3" VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) reconnaissance drones, allegedly offering superior range and deployment speed over standard quadcopters (01:03, Colonelcassad, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Lviv):
Status: Search and rescue is shifting toward criminal investigation. The revelation that the fatality occurred following a "false call" suggests a deliberate ambush or "double-tap" logic targeting first responders.
Casualties: 1 deceased, 15 injured.
2. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Kinetic Activity: Sumy is under active KAB (guided bomb) bombardment. UAV groups continue to transit the Velyka Pysarivka axis, heading west.
Weather: Extreme cold continues. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -13.9°C with 65% cloud cover (01:00, Weather Context). This temperature remains critical for energy infrastructure vulnerability.
3. Central Sector (Cherkasy/Kirovohrad):
UAV Geometry: UAVs are maintaining a consistent westward heading. A group is currently positioned between Smila and Tsvitkove (Cherkasy) and south of Znamianka (Kirovohrad). These are likely targeting regional power nodes or transit infrastructure.
4. Southern Sector (Odesa/Kherson/Zaporizhzhia):
Maritime Threat: Previous reports of Shaheds tracking toward Chornomorsk remain the primary concern.
Weather: Overcast (100% cloud) in Orikhiv and Kherson with temperatures between -2.6°C and -1.8°C. Conditions are stable for UAV operations (01:00, Weather Context).
5. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Tactical Activity: Active KAB strikes in the Donetsk region. UAVs are being launched from Donetsk toward southern Kharkiv, indicating a north-western vector of pressure.
Weather: Svatove remains the coldest point at -14.4°C with 40% cloud cover, providing high thermal contrast for ISR (01:00, Weather Context).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Layered Aerial Assault: The combination of maritime UAVs (Odesa), transiting UAVs (Central/North), and tactical KAB strikes (East/Sumy) indicates a synchronized attempt to overwhelm UAF Air Defense (AD) ahead of the expected strategic aviation strike.
Information Operations/Intent: Pro-Russian sources (NgP RaZVеdka) have signaled the "beginning" of a major operation, using rhetoric like "the Ukrainian will wake up without an alarm clock," likely referring to impending large-scale missile arrivals (00:53, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Technological Adaptation: The introduction of VTOL "Oko" drones (if verified) would allow Russian tactical units to conduct long-range ISR without the need for prepared runways or vulnerable launch catapults, complicating UAF counter-UAV efforts.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Response Operations: Lviv emergency services and police are on high alert following the confirmation of the "false call" tactic.
Air Defense: Engagement is active across Sumy, Donetsk, and the central oblasts to intercept UAVs and mitigate KAB impacts.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Warfare: Russian mil-bloggers are actively using the imminent strike narrative to degrade Ukrainian morale ("wake up without an alarm clock").
Internal Messaging: Russian state media (TASS) is focusing on minor domestic regulatory changes (airline seating for families) to project a sense of normalcy despite the intensification of operations (00:46, TASS).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A coordinated cruise missile strike from the airborne Tu-95MS and Tu-160 fleets, timed to coincide with the morning peak energy demand (05:00-08:00 UTC) during the current -14°C cold snap.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Continued use of "false calls" or secondary strikes in urban centers like Lviv to target emergency response personnel while air defenses are saturated by the primary missile/UAV wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Verification of "Oko-2/3" VTOL drone presence and electronic signatures on the contact line.
[OPERATIONAL] Monitoring of the "false call" tactic in other regions to determine if this is a systemic shift in Russian hybrid/terror operations against first responders.
[STRATEGIC] Determination of the specific launch points for the current KAB sorties to facilitate counter-battery or SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations.
