Lviv Casualty Update: Mayor Andriy Sadovyi reports the preliminary confirmed death of a female police officer following the designated "terrorist attack" in central Lviv (00:22, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
New Maritime UAV Vector: A Shahed-type UAV has been detected entering from the Black Sea, tracking toward Chornomorsk (Odesa region) (00:21, Air Force of the AFU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy Incursion: Multiple groups of UAVs are transiting the Sumy region, specifically passing the Velyka Pysarivka axis (00:23, Air Force of the AFU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Central Region Probing: A UAV group in northern Kirovohrad region has adjusted course toward the Cherkasy region (00:26, Air Force of the AFU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Strategic Aviation Status: Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers reported in previous SITREPs remain airborne; no launch signatures have been confirmed yet, but the window for a coordinated missile arrival remains imminent (Baseline Context, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Lviv):
Status: Search and rescue operations continue. The inclusion of a police officer among the fatalities underscores the impact on municipal first responders.
Environment: Continued high-threat level as air defenses remain on alert for the strategic aviation threat reported earlier.
2. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
UAV Geometry: New groups entering via Velyka Pysarivka suggest a multi-wave approach to saturate northern air defenses.
Weather: Extreme cold persists. Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -13.9°C with 63% cloud cover. Luhansk/Svatove is at -14.4°C with 40% cloud cover. These conditions remain optimal for Russian thermal ISR (00:30, Weather Context).
3. Central Sector (Kirovohrad/Cherkasy/Poltava):
UAV Movement: UAVs are transiting from northern Kirovohrad into Cherkasy. This follows earlier reports of groups heading toward the Kremenchuk axis, indicating a broad effort to probe the central Ukrainian power and industrial nodes (00:26, Air Force of the AFU).
4. Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Maritime Threat: Movement toward Chornomorsk indicates a renewed focus on port infrastructure or coastal air defense fixation.
Weather: Overcast conditions (98-100% cloud) in Orikhiv and Kherson with temperatures between -2.6°C and -1.7°C. Moderate winds of 4.1–4.2 m/s may slightly affect small UAV flight stability but do not preclude operations (00:30, Weather Context).
5. Eastern Sector (Donetsk):
Weather: Clear skies (5% cloud) and -5.9°C in Pokrovsk. High visibility for tactical aviation and KAB strikes persists (00:30, Weather Context).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Vector UAV Saturation: Russian forces are currently utilizing at least four distinct UAV vectors (Sumy, Kirovohrad/Cherkasy, Poltava, and Odesa) to force a distributed response from UAF Air Defense.
Strategic Timing: The expansion of UAV activity coincides with the expected flight time of Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers. This pattern is consistent with "pathfinding" or depleting AD stocks before a massed cruise missile strike.
Tactical Exploitation: In the East (Donetsk), clear weather is being used to sustain KAB strikes against frontline positions while central and northern units deal with UAV/Missile threats.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Engagement of UAVs across multiple oblasts. Focus is on protecting the energy grid and port infrastructure (Chornomorsk).
Civilian Protection: Emergency services in Lviv are operating under the "terrorist attack" designation, focusing on casualty recovery and site security.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Internal Affairs: Russian state media (TASS) is disseminating warnings regarding a new QR-code payment scam targeting online sellers, potentially indicating domestic focus on financial security or an attempt to explain away digital economic disruptions (00:09, TASS).
Attribution: Ukrainian officials (Mayor Sadovyi) are proactively characterizing the Lviv incident as "terrorism," likely to facilitate international diplomatic condemnation and focus Western attention on civilian impacts.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A synchronized missile launch from the Tu-95MS and Tu-160 fleets within the next 2-4 hours. Targets will likely include the energy infrastructure in the Central and Northern sectors to exploit the sub-13°C temperatures.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A heavy, multi-platform strike (Cruise missiles + UAVs + KABs) specifically targeting the Odesa port infrastructure (Chornomorsk) and Western logistics hubs (Lviv) to disrupt both the grain corridor and military aid flow simultaneously.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[STRATEGIC] Urgent confirmation of launch signatures (Kh-101/555) from the strategic aviation fleet.
[OPERATIONAL] Determine if the UAV heading to Chornomorsk is a reconnaissance variant or a strike-capable Shahed to assess the threat to port facilities.
[TACTICAL] Monitor for any shift in Russian electronic warfare (EW) activity that may precede the arrival of the cruise missile wave.
