Intensified Pressure in Pokrovsk Sector: Russian forces have increased offensive pressure near Rodynske and Hrishyne (Donetsk Oblast), indicating a tactical effort to expand the salient around Pokrovsk. (17:26, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Aviation Strikes on UAF Strongpoints: Unconfirmed reports indicate Russian aviation deployed FAB-500 glide bombs against the UAF 152nd Jaeger Brigade near Novoolexandrivka and Hrishyne. (17:15, Colonelcassad, LOW CONFIDENCE/UNCONFIRMED).
Zaporizhzhia Drone Attack: Multiple explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia city following a Russian loitering munition (UAV) strike campaign. (17:10, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sumy Civilian Attrition: A Russian drone strike targeted a civilian vehicle in Sumy Oblast, resulting in multiple casualties. (17:14, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF FPV Effectiveness: The Ukrainian FPV unit "SKELE" released footage claiming the neutralisation of 11 Russian personnel in coordinated loitering munition strikes. (17:11, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
UAV Incursion (Northern Sector): UAF Air Force detected Russian UAVs entering northern Sumy Oblast, vectoring toward Yampil. (17:24, Air Force of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Status: Russian activity is concentrated on UAV strikes and cross-border harassment. A civilian vehicle was struck by a drone in Sumy Oblast. Current UAV tracks show movement toward Yampil.
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -7.2°C, clear (0% cloud). Luhansk/Svatove is -8.0°C. Forecasted overnight lows reach -12.8°C. Clear skies facilitate Russian optical reconnaissance and drone navigation but create extreme thermal signatures for UAF defensive units to exploit.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Status: The primary focus of Russian offensive activity has shifted or expanded toward Rodynske and Hrishyne. This suggests an attempt to flank Pokrovsk from the north/northwest. Russian forces are reportedly using heavy aviation support (FAB-500) to degrade UAF strongpoints in this area.
Weather: Pokrovsk is -3.2°C, mainly clear (43% cloud). Nighttime lows of -6.7°C are expected. The ground remains frozen, supporting mechanized movements if Russian forces can concentrate armor.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Status: Kinetic activity is currently dominated by aerial platforms. Zaporizhzhia city is under active drone attack. In the rear areas, Russian Tsentr Group’s 5th Brigade is reportedly conducting specialized FPV pilot training to adapt to winter conditions.
Weather: Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv and Kherson are overcast (100% cloud) at -0.6°C to -0.0°C. These conditions hinder high-altitude optical ISR but do not prevent low-altitude FPV operations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: Russian UAV units (specifically the 5th Brigade, Tsentr Group) are refining winter navigation and "obstacle course" piloting, likely to improve FPV penetration in urban and forested terrain during low-visibility winter months. (17:27, MoD Russia).
Course of Action: Increased pressure on Rodynske and Hrishyne suggests a localized Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA) aimed at severing supply lines (GLOCs) feeding the Pokrovsk defensive pocket from the west.
Aviation: The use of FAB-500s in the Hrishyne area indicates that Russia is prioritizing the destruction of fixed UAF defensive positions to facilitate ground advances.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Drone Operations: UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time tracking of "Shahed" and other loitering munitions, maintaining high-readiness alerts in the Northern and Southern sectors.
Tactical Success: UAF FPV units ("SKELE") continue to demonstrate high lethality against Russian infantry in the open, achieving significant attrition (11 losses in one documented engagement).
Information environment / disinformation
"Reconstruction" Narrative: Russian state-affiliated media (Kotenok) is promoting documentaries focused on the reconstruction of Donbas to counter international narratives of "scorched earth" tactics.
Negotiation Defeatism: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying claims that President Zelenskyy is "blocking" negotiations, attempting to shift the blame for the conflict's prolongation onto the Ukrainian leadership.
Migration Policy: Russian internal channels are tracking a Duma bill targeting the deportation of children of labor migrants upon turning 18, which reflects ongoing domestic socio-political friction within the RF. (17:23, Alex Parker Returns).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV strikes targeting energy and civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy. In Donetsk, expect a continuation of high-intensity indirect fire and glide-bomb strikes in the Hrishyne sector to soften UAF lines for a night assault.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid mechanized push toward Rodynske facilitated by the heavy aviation strikes reported today, potentially threatening the integrity of the Pokrovsk-Dimitrov defensive line.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the extent of damage to the UAF 152nd Jaeger Brigade strongpoints following reported FAB-500 strikes.
[OPERATIONAL] Determine the concentration of Russian mechanized assets in the Rodynske/Hrishyne axis to assess the scale of the "increased pressure."
[TECHNICAL] Monitor for the deployment of the composite-reinforced "Upyr" FPV drones (mentioned in previous daily reports) to assess their resistance to current UAF EW assets.
