Territorial Claim (Minkovka): Russian forces claim to have seized control of Minkovka, advancing along the M-03 highway toward Kramatorsk (approx. 14 km distance). (16:34, Рыбарь, UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE).
Tactical Deep Strikes: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military warehouses and ammunition depots in Polohy (Zaporizhzhia) and occupied Donetsk city. (16:46, 16:56, РБК-Україна/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intensified Indirect Fire (Dnipropetrovsk): Over 30 Russian artillery and drone strikes targeted the Nikopol and Synelnykove districts, resulting in one casualty and civilian infrastructure damage. (16:30, Олександр Ганжа, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Economic Warfare: President Zelenskyy announced comprehensive Ukrainian sanctions against 225 owners of the Russian "shadow fleet" involved in oil transport, aimed at degrading Russia's war financing. (16:57, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
US Trade Policy: Confirmation of a planned increase in global US import tariffs from 10% to 15%, to be implemented over the coming months. (16:51, ТАСС, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Personnel Exploitation: Ukrainian forces captured a Colombian national (Edwin Alberto Diaz) who claims he was pressed into combat by Russian recruiters after being promised civilian hotel work. (16:39, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Status: Active loitering munition (UAV) incursions detected. Targets are vectoring toward Hlukhiv and Krasnopillia (Sumy) and Northern Kharkiv from Belgorod Oblast (RF). In the Kursk border area, Russian FPV units report engaging small UAF infiltration groups.
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -6.6°C, clear (0% cloud). Forecasted overnight low of -12.8°C remains the primary environmental threat to grid stability.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Status: Russian forces claim an advance on the M-03 axis via Minkovka. If confirmed, this moves the line of contact within 14km of Kramatorsk. Heavy fighting continues near Reznikovka and Svyato-Pokrovskoye. UAF SSO successfully engaged an ammunition depot within Donetsk city using thermal-capable strike drones.
Weather: Luhansk/Svatove is -7.5°C, clear. Pokrovsk is -2.9°C with 36% cloud cover. Conditions remain optimal for aerial reconnaissance.
Status: Significant attrition in Polohy where UAF drone strikes targeted Russian logistics/warehouses. Russian 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade is reportedly prioritizing "drone-on-drone" combat to establish local air superiority. The Nikopol/Synelnykove areas are under heavy artillery pressure.
Weather: Orikhiv and Kherson are overcast (100% cloud) at approximately -0.5°C to 0.1°C.
4. Strategic Rear / Russian Federation:
Status: Internal Russian legislative pressure is mounting with a proposed bill to deport children of labor migrants within 30 days of their 18th birthday. Heavy snowfall in Moscow (record depths) is impacting regional logistics but has no direct tactical link to the front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: Russian forces in the Vostok Group (Zaporizhzhia) are increasingly utilizing FPV drones specifically for counter-UAS roles, indicating a shift toward protecting mechanized assets from UAF drone screens.
Course of Action: The claim on Minkovka suggests a renewed Russian effort to pressure the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration from the southeast along the M-03 highway.
Logistics: Russian reliance on irregular foreign combatants (e.g., Colombians) through deceptive recruitment suggests ongoing localized manpower friction in sustaining high-attrition "meat assaults."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Tactical Attrition: SSO utilization of technology to strike depots in Polohy and Donetsk demonstrates a high level of intelligence regarding Russian tactical storage nodes.
Diplomatic Offensive: President Zelenskyy is framing the failure of previous Geneva negotiations as solely due to Russian obstructionism, while preparing for a "non-empty" next round of talks supported by Middle Eastern and Turkish partners.
Counter-Intelligence: UAF security services have reportedly thwarted multiple Russian-directed assassination attempts against high-profile military and media targets.
Information environment / disinformation
"Deadlock" Narrative: Russian channels are amplifying The Times reporting of a "stalemate" to encourage Western fatigue (16:57, ЦАПЛІЄНКО).
Defeatism Framing: Russian milbloggers (Basurin) are actively misrepresenting UAF National Guard Commander Pivnenko's recent interviews to suggest leadership defeatism.
European Friction: Russian state media is highlighting Viktor Orban’s critiques of EU leadership (Kaja Kallas) to amplify perceived divisions within NATO/EU regarding the war's outcome.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue loitering munition strikes against Sumy and Kharkiv energy infrastructure to coincide with the -12°C temperature drop.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough attempt along the M-03 toward Kramatorsk, utilizing the reported capture of Minkovka as a staging point for a mechanized push before UAF can reinforce the sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Verification of Russian control over Minkovka; status of UAF defensive lines on the M-03 approach to Kramatorsk.
[OPERATIONAL] Assessment of the damage to the Polohy and Donetsk warehouses to determine the degree of Russian logistical disruption in those sectors.
[TECHNICAL] Analysis of the "shadow fleet" captain list to identify specific shipping companies currently circumventing the oil price cap.
