High-Volume Ground Assaults (Pokrovsk): The Ukrainian General Staff reports halting 39 Russian assault actions in the Pokrovsk direction, focusing on settlements west and southwest of the city (07:59, Liveuamap, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intensified Pressure on Kostiantynivka: 26 enemy attacks were recorded yesterday targeting multiple settlements including Rusyn Yar, Sofiivka, and Ivanopillya (07:59, Liveuamap, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New KAB Strikes (Zaporizhzhia): Russian tactical aviation has launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) against Zaporizhzhia, following earlier reports of widespread airstrikes in the southern sector (08:15, AFU Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Multi-Vector UAV Activity: Persistent Russian UAV incursions detected moving north over southern Kharkiv, west over Mykolaiv, and south through Chernihiv (08:12–08:26, AFU Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Claimed Strike on ICBM Production (Votkinsk): Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources suggest British-made missiles may have struck a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) production facility in Votkinsk (08:07, Basurin o glavnom, UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE).
Rail Logistics Disruption: Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) has modified train routes and schedules for Feb 21st citing security concerns (08:08, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -6.5°C and clear (0% cloud). Svatove is -5.1°C and clear.
Frontline Activity: Three Russian assaults were repelled in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions (07:59, Liveuamap).
Air/UAV: Russian UAVs are active in eastern Sumy (heading toward Khotin) and Chernihiv (passing Korop/Borzna heading south) (08:23-08:26, AFU Air Force).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Sloviansk):
Weather: Pokrovsk is -3.6°C and overcast (68% cloud).
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: Remains the operational center of gravity with 39 repelled assaults. High-intensity close-quarters combat ("Pokrovsk Duel") confirmed by the UAF 155th Brigade (08:28, Butusov Plus).
Sloviansk/Kostiantynivka: High pressure remains with 10 attacks repelled near Yampil and Ray-Oleksandrivka, and 26 attacks in the Kostiantynivka direction (07:58-07:59, Liveuamap).
Tactical Engagement: Russian 68th Reconnaissance Battalion reportedly used FPV drones to destroy UAF light vehicles and ground drones (NRTK) near Nikolpolye (07:59, DNR Militia).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Weather: Orikhiv is -2.1°C and partly cloudy (59% cloud). Kherson is -1.3°C and overcast (100% cloud).
Zaporizhzhia: Escalation in aerial bombardment with fresh KAB launches (08:15, AFU Air Force). 18 Russian advance attempts were recorded yesterday in the Huliaipole direction (07:59, Liveuamap).
Kherson: Three Russian ground assaults repelled in the Pridneprovsky direction (07:59, Liveuamap).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Sustained Offensive Tempo: The volume of attacks in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka sectors (65 combined in 24h) indicates the enemy is attempting to maintain high-intensity pressure to prevent UAF consolidation.
Aerial Suppression: The shift from tactical UAVs to KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector suggests a transition to "scorched earth" tactics or a preparatory phase for larger ground maneuvers.
Logistics Targeting: Claims regarding Votkinsk (even if unconfirmed) and the disruption of Ukrainian rail traffic suggest both sides are prioritizing the interdiction of deep-rear strategic assets and transport lines.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: UAF units successfully held lines across seven distinct operational directions yesterday, despite heavy pincer pressure at Myrnohrad.
Counter-UAV Operations: Continued utilization of FPV drones for both anti-personnel and anti-materiel roles, including the destruction of Russian logistics in the eastern sector.
Information environment / disinformation
Propaganda / POW Exploitation: Russian channels are circulating video of a captured soldier from the 102nd TDF Brigade (Petr Bublinsky) to frame the 2014 Maidan as a "catastrophe" (08:00, Voin DV).
Hybrid Narratives: Russian sources are highlighting "two realities" regarding Turkey—economic cooperation with Russia vs. Turkish naval activity in the Baltic under NATO—likely to sow distrust between Turkey and Western allies (08:15, Dva Mayora).
Psychological Operations: Claimed "flag-drop" operation by UAF in Pryluky was used by Russian sources to demonstrate defensive "readiness" (08:15, Colonelcassad).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued high-intensity infantry assaults in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pincer. KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia will likely target UAF reserve concentrations.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis surge in the Kostiantynivka sector aimed at severing local logistics, coinciding with Russian UAV swarms designed to fix air defense units during evening hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[STRATEGIC VERIFICATION] Immediate BDA or secondary corroboration of the alleged strike on the Votkinsk ICBM plant.
[LOGISTICS ASSESSMENT] Identify the specific security threat causing "Ukrzaliznytsia" schedule changes (e.g., specific intelligence on missile flight paths or sabotage).
[TACTICAL DISPOSITION] Determine if the increased Russian activity in Huliaipole (18 attempts) signifies the opening of a more significant secondary axis in the south.
