Intensified Air Operations (Sumy): Russian tactical aviation has initiated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting the Sumy region (07:41, AFU Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Encirclement Attempt at Myrnohrad: Russian forces are actively attempting to place the UAF 79th Air Assault Brigade into "claws" (pincer maneuver) near Myrnohrad; drone footage confirms ongoing high-intensity engagements with enemy infantry and light vehicles (07:50, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Massive Airstrike Campaign (South): The UAF General Staff reports a widespread wave of Russian airstrikes across Zaporizhzhia (11 settlements), Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson regions (07:58, Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Large-Scale UAV Interception Claim: Russian sources claim air defense systems intercepted 89 Ukrainian plane-type UAVs overnight across various sectors (07:32, Kotsnews, LOW CONFIDENCE/UNCONFIRMED).
Combat Debut of Ka-29TB: Video evidence indicates the combat employment of a Russian Ka-29TB helicopter equipped with a heavy multi-barrel gun system operating over water (07:40, Fighterbomber, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Weather: Kharkiv is -7.4°C and clear (0% cloud). Svatove is -5.7°C and clear.
Kharkiv (South Slobozhansky): Four Russian assaults were recorded yesterday near Starytsia, Lyman, Vovchanski Khutory, and Kruhle (07:58, Liveuamap).
Kupyansk: Active clashes continue near Pischane, Novoosynove, and Kurylivka (07:58, Liveuamap).
Sumy: New vector of KAB strikes suggests Russian efforts to suppress UAF staging areas or logistics in the border region.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Weather: Pokrovsk is -4.2°C and overcast (100% cloud).
Myrnohrad: This remains the critical flashpoint. Russian forces are prioritizing the envelopment of UAF 79th Air Assault Brigade positions rather than frontal assaults. Overcast conditions persist, likely limiting optical ISR but favoring KAB usage.
Weather: Orikhiv is -2.5°C and partly cloudy (65% cloud). Kherson is -1.9°C and overcast (100% cloud).
Zaporizhzhia: Intense aerial bombardment reported across a broad front, including Velykomykhaylivka, Huliaipilske, and Komyshuvakha. A Russian UAV was detected moving south past Vilniansk (07:33, AFU Air Force).
Kherson: Russian aviation targeted Kozatske. Local UAF units are currently crowdfunding for light transport (Nissan X-Trail) to maintain mobility (07:37, Hayabusa).
4. Strategic Rear / Russian Interior:
UAV Defense: Russian "Bars-Sarmat" units report repelling nighttime drone raids (07:30, Dva Mayora).
Telegram Intelligence: The FSB has reportedly warned that UAF services are monitoring Telegram for military intelligence, specifically mentioning pro-Russian channels as sources of "leaks" (07:57, Alex Parker Returns).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The use of pincer maneuvers at Myrnohrad suggests a shift toward operational-tactical encirclement to bypass hardened UAF defensive lines.
Aviation Dominance: The sheer volume of airstrikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector (11+ locations in one report) indicates a major effort to disrupt UAF second-line logistics and rotations.
Naval/Amphibious Capability: The deployment of the Ka-29TB over water suggests an increased focus on coastal or riverine security, possibly responding to UAF naval drone threats.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Persistence: The 79th Air Assault Brigade continues to hold the Myrnohrad sector despite pincer pressure, utilizing FPV drones to strike Russian light vehicles and personnel (07:50, Operativnyi ZSU).
FPV Precision: Video footage confirms successful FPV strikes on Russian infantry in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating the continued utility of cumulative-effect munitions in wooded terrain (07:43, Butusov Plus).
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Divergence: Russian state media (TASS) is pushing a "Satanism" narrative targeting UK/Western figures to frame the conflict in religious/civilizational terms (07:47, TASS).
Geopolitical Friction: Pro-military Russian channels are attempting to frame Azerbaijani cultural initiatives as "anti-Russian" and tied to organized crime, likely aiming to strain ties between Moscow and Baku (07:32, Rybar).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued Russian KAB strikes in the Sumy and Donetsk sectors to facilitate localized ground advances. Pressure on the Myrnohrad pincer will likely intensify before nightfall.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough in the Myrnohrad sector that successfully cuts off the 79th Air Assault Brigade's main supply routes, forcing a rapid withdrawal under fire.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Determine the impact of the mass airstrike campaign in Zaporizhzhia on UAF logistical nodes.
[VERIFICATION] Corroborate Russian claims of 89 intercepted UAVs; identify potential impact sites for those that may have bypassed defenses.
[TACTICAL DEPLOYMENT] Confirm if the Ka-29TB usage is a one-off test or part of a broader deployment of naval aviation in the Black Sea or Dnipro River areas.
