New Aerial Threat Vector: Russian UAVs detected in the Black Sea moving toward Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa region), specifically the Serhiivka vector (07:19, Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intensified Tactical Aviation: Russian tactical aviation is actively launching guided aerial bombs (KABs) against targets in the Donetsk region (07:21, Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Pincer Maneuver at Myrnohrad: The UAF 79th Airborne Assault Brigade reports that Russian forces are attempting to envelop Myrnohrad using pincer tactics; drone footage confirms heavy damage and ongoing combat in the city's vicinity (07:24, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAV Threat to Russian Rear: Regional authorities in Udmurtia (RF) have declared an "Opasnoye Nebo" (Dangerous Sky) alert due to the threat of a Ukrainian UAV attack (07:08, Dva Mayora, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Alleged Convoy Interdiction: The Russian MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces destroyed a Ukrainian convoy in the Zaporizhzhia region using T-80BVM and T-72B3M tanks (07:02, MoD Russia, LOW CONFIDENCE/UNCONFIRMED).
Kyiv Air Quality Alert: Air monitoring stations in Kyiv have recorded "harmful" air quality levels following recent strikes or atmospheric conditions (07:10, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk/Sumy):
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -8.5°C and clear. Svatove is -6.5°C and clear.
Operational Impact: Clear conditions continue to facilitate Russian ISR. A pro-Russian source claimed the destruction of a Ukrainian flag-planting attempt in Priluky via drone strike, though this remains UNCONFIRMED (06:59, Voin DV).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Seversk):
Weather: Pokrovsk is -4.9°C and overcast (100% cloud).
Myrnohrad: Heavy pressure is reported as Russian forces attempt a pincer maneuver. Overcast conditions likely limit high-altitude ISR but favor the use of KABs by tactical aviation which rely on coordinates rather than visual guidance.
Seversk: Russian MoD claims to have destroyed four UAF UAV control points in the vicinity; video evidence suggests at least one successful impact (07:22, TASS, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa):
Weather: Orikhiv is -2.9°C (65% cloud). Kherson is -2.5°C and overcast (100% cloud).
Zaporizhzhia: Conflicting reports regarding a UAF convoy. Russia claims a successful interdiction near forward positions, while UAF sources focus on the national minute of silence.
Odesa: A new UAV threat from the Black Sea indicates a shift in the aerial attack vector to the southwest.
4. Strategic Rear (Russian Federation):
Udmurtia: The declaration of a UAV threat suggests Ukrainian deep-strike capabilities are expanding or re-targeting industrial centers in the Russian interior.
UGV Development: Russian forces are testing the "Kurier" Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) equipped with EW systems in amphibious (partially frozen) conditions (07:17, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Pincer Tactics: The shift to pincer maneuvers around Myrnohrad indicates a tactical evolution from frontal assaults to more complex encirclement attempts in the Donetsk sector.
Integrated UGV/EW Training: Video of the "Kurier" UGV indicates Russian efforts to integrate ground-based robotics with Electronic Warfare to counter UAF FPV dominance.
Tactical Bombing: Sustained KAB launches on Donetsk suggest a high-tempo preparation for further ground advances.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Maneuver: The 79th Airborne Brigade is actively conducting defensive operations near Myrnohrad, utilizing drone-corrected fire and observation to monitor Russian pincer attempts.
Deep Strike Operations: Persistent alerts in Udmurtia suggest UAF continues to maintain pressure on Russian industrial/military logistics deep within the RF.
Civilian Morale: At 09:00, a nationwide minute of silence was observed across all major military and administrative channels to honor fallen defenders.
Information environment / disinformation
Propaganda Focus: Consistent with Dempster-Shafer analysis (Belief: 1.0), Russian channels are heavily promoting combat footage (documentary "At the Edge of the Abyss") and alleged tactical successes (Priluky flag incident) to bolster domestic morale.
Global Economics: Ukrainian channels are amplifying news of the 10% US global tariff signed by President Trump, assessing the potential impact on international support and defense planning (07:13, Operativnyi ZSU).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Donetsk followed by localized Russian ground assaults toward Myrnohrad. UAVs currently over the Black Sea will likely impact or be intercepted in the Odesa/Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi area.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated breakthrough of the pincer maneuver at Myrnohrad, potentially cutting off UAF supply lines in the sector if the 79th Brigade's defensive line is compromised.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Verify the status of the four UAF UAV control points near Seversk.
[OPERATIONAL STATUS] Confirm the validity of Russian claims regarding the destruction of a UAF convoy in Zaporizhzhia.
[AIR QUALITY] Determine the source of "harmful" air quality in Kyiv—specifically if it stems from an unrecorded chemical/industrial strike or is a secondary effect of energy infrastructure fires.
