Massive UAV Saturation Attack: The Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) reports intercepting/suppressing 106 out of 120 enemy "Shahed" type UAVs launched overnight. A total of 121 aerial assets were detected, including one Iskander-M ballistic missile (06:36, Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Missile Interception Failure: Preliminary reports indicate the Iskander-M ballistic missile was not intercepted (06:40, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Casualties in Sumy Oblast: Three civilians were wounded following a Russian attack on the Sumy region (06:36, ASTRA/OVA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Continued Kharkiv Strikes: Russian forces targeted Kharkiv city and 10 additional settlements in the Kharkiv region over the last 24 hours (06:48, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Industrial Incident in Samara Oblast: A fire was reported at an oil well in the Neftegorsky district. While Ukrainian deep strikes have occurred in the region recently, initial assessments suggest technical failure or sanctions-related maintenance issues rather than a drone strike (06:58, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
FSB Telegram Warning: The Russian FSB has officially reiterated claims that Ukrainian special services harvest Telegram data for military targeting, signaling an intensifying crackdown on operational security (OPSEC) for Russian personnel and correspondents (06:35, Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk/Sumy):
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -9.4°C and clear (0% cloud). Svatove is -7.3°C and clear (0% cloud).
Operational Impact: Clear skies continue to provide optimal conditions for optical reconnaissance. At 06:34, the UAF Air Force detected a Russian UAV north of Chuhuiv on a northern heading, suggesting active loitering/spotting in the sector. Sumy Oblast remains under heavy indirect fire pressure with confirmed civilian casualties.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Weather: Pokrovsk is -5.4°C and overcast (88% cloud).
Current Activity: High cloud cover limits high-altitude ISR; however, the lack of precipitation (0.0mm) allows for continued mechanized movement on frozen ground.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Weather: Orikhiv is -3.1°C and overcast (95% cloud). Kherson is -2.9°C and overcast (99% cloud) with winds up to 4.9 m/s.
Zaporizhzhia: Local authorities are maintaining high readiness, with the daily minute of silence (09:00 local) serving as a morale-stabilizing measure amid ongoing standoff strikes. Overcast conditions likely impede some FPV drone precision but favor concealed infantry movements.
4. Strategic Rear (Russian Federation):
Samara/Neftegorsk: The oil well fire in Neftegorsky district highlights the fragility of Russian energy infrastructure under the combined weight of high-tempo operations and international sanctions, even in the absence of kinetic strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Saturation Tactics: The launch of 120+ UAVs indicates a continued Russian effort to deplete Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) interceptor stocks. The inclusion of a single ballistic missile (Iskander-M) suggests a "high-low" tactic—using the drone swarm to fix/distract AD systems while attempting a high-value precision strike.
OPSEC Hardening: The FSB's public focus on Telegram indicates a shift toward more rigid information control within the Russian military, likely aimed at preventing geolocation of units by UAF OSINT.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Performance: UAF air defense achieved an ~88% interception rate against the overnight drone swarm, demonstrating high readiness and effective integration of electronic warfare (EW) suppression and kinetic intercepts.
Strategic Resilience: Despite the non-interception of the Iskander-M, the UAF maintains its tactical posture in the Kharkiv and Sumy sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
Energy Transit Pressure: Russian state media (TASS) is utilizing former Ukrainian PM Mykola Azarov to amplify narratives of a "hopeless" situation regarding the Druzhba oil pipeline, aiming to exploit friction between Ukraine, Hungary, and Slovakia.
Anniversary Narratives: As the 4th anniversary of the full-scale invasion (Feb 24) approaches, both sides are pivoting toward commemorative content, with ASTRA soliciting personal testimonies from the "Black February" of 2022.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will conduct post-strike BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) using high-altitude ISR in the clear northern sectors. Continued artillery pressure on Sumy and Kharkiv is expected.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A secondary wave of ballistic or cruise missiles could be launched against the Ukrainian energy grid while AD units are reloading and repositioning following the 120-drone saturation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Identify the impact point and damage sustained from the Iskander-M ballistic missile that was not intercepted.
[TECHNICAL ANALYSIS] Confirm if the Samara oil well fire was indeed non-kinetic or if it represents a new UAF "stealth" or sabotage capability.
[FORCE DISPOSITION] Monitor for Russian ground movement in the Chuhuiv/Kharkiv axis following the spotted UAV flight path.
