Diplomatic Deadlock on Sovereignty: President Zelenskyy confirmed constructive movement regarding ceasefire monitoring and prisoner of war (POW) exchanges, but explicitly stated there is "no progress" concerning territorial concessions (1453Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Security Council Briefing: Vladimir Putin convened the Russian Security Council to receive a formal report on the Geneva negotiations involving Russian, American, and Ukrainian representatives, indicating a high-level Kremlin focus on the current diplomatic window (1457Z, Operatsiya Z; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Tactical Russian Gains near Kupyansk: Pro-Russian sources report localized tactical successes north of Kupyansk and east of the Oskil River. Operations are characterized by small-unit actions to improve localized positioning (1456Z, Rybar; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Domestic Russian Hybrid Activity: Circulating reports of a nationwide Telegram shutdown in Russia scheduled for April are assessed as a likely marketing "scare tactic" for VPN providers, though they may also serve to test public reaction to potential information space tightening (1458Z, Mobilization News; LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kupyansk/Oskil Axis):
Dynamics: The focus of kinetic activity has shifted toward the Kupyansk front. Russian forces are attempting to consolidate control over the eastern bank of the Oskil River. This aligns with the previous report of "Sever" Group activity in the Sumy/Kharkiv border regions.
Environment: Sub-zero temperatures and high cloud cover persist, favoring Russian tactical probes and localized infantry assaults where UAF drone visibility is degraded.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Dynamics: (Baseline) Intense KAB activity continues. Russian sappers (177th Marine Regiment) remain active near Dobropillya, exploiting high winds (>7m/s) that ground UAF FPV drone screens.
Environment: No change from previous report; high winds continue to offer a tactical window for Russian mine-clearing and mechanized preparation.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Dynamics: (Baseline) Multi-vector UAV and KAB threats persist. No new territorial changes reported since 1453Z.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptations: In the Kupyansk sector, Russian forces are leveraging localized tactical successes to pressure UAF logistics along the Oskil River. This suggests a "bite and hold" strategy designed to improve their position ahead of any formal ceasefire monitoring discussions.
Strategic Intent: The simultaneous briefing of the Russian Security Council on Geneva talks and "defense research measures" suggests the Kremlin is pursuing a dual-track strategy: engaging in diplomatic theater while internally accelerating military-industrial output to sustain a long-term war of attrition if talks fail.
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is likely to intensify pressure on the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk axes to maximize territorial gains before the "late February" negotiation window mentioned in previous reports.
Friendly forces (Blue force tracking)
Strategic Posture: The UAF leadership is maintaining a firm "no territorial concessions" stance despite constructive dialogue on secondary issues (POWs/monitoring). This indicates a refusal to accept a "frozen conflict" on Russian terms.
Tactical Status: UAF units in the Kupyansk sector are engaged in active defense. The hardening of the northern borders (facilitated by Poland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention) is likely allowing for the gradual optimization of reserve deployments toward the Oskil and Donetsk sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Framing: Both sides are heavily messaged regarding the Geneva/Swiss talks. Russia is framing the talks as a trilateral process (RU/US/UA) to undermine Ukrainian agency, while Ukraine emphasizes constructive "results-oriented" technical steps (POWs) over territorial compromise.
Internal Russian Control: The "Telegram shutdown" narrative, while likely commercial, feeds into a broader climate of information insecurity within the Russian Federation, potentially masking genuine state efforts to restrict C2 and civilian coordination.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue localized assaults east of the Oskil River to exploit current visibility gaps. Expect continued KAB sorties targeting logistics hubs in Kupyansk and rear-area Donetsk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): If Russian sappers successfully complete "high-way" clearing through minefields near Dobropillya during the current high-wind window, a localized mechanized breakthrough attempt toward Pokrovsk is highly probable before wind speeds drop and UAF drones return to the air.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the specific depth of Russian advances east of the Oskil River; identify if mechanized assets are being funneled into these new positions.
[OPERATIONAL] Monitor for the arrival of new Russian "defense research" outputs (e.g., electronic warfare or new UAV variants) mentioned in the Putin-Security Council briefing.
[STRATEGIC] Determine the exact parameters of the "ceasefire monitoring" being discussed in Geneva to assess the risk of a "SMM-style" (OSCE) mission that could be exploited by Russian hybrid forces.
