Expansion of KAB Strike Radius: Russian aviation has expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes beyond Zaporizhzhia, now targeting the Sumy region (1440Z), Donetsk region (1424Z), and southeast Dnipropetrovsk region (1449Z) (UA Air Force; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Diplomatic Signaling for February Negotiations: President Zelenskyy and the Kremlin (via Medinsky/Putin) have both confirmed high-level reviews of recent Swiss and Geneva-based talks, with Ukraine signaling a potential "result-oriented" round of negotiations and a prisoner exchange later this month (1432Z, 1444Z, Zelenskiy/Poddubny; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Polish Shift in Defensive Doctrine: Poland has officially withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention (prohibiting anti-personnel mines), formalizing the hardening of the Kaliningrad/Belarus borders (1439Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Command Attrition/Corruption: The former head of the "Kursk Region Development Corporation" was sentenced to nine years for embezzlement related to border fortifications, highlighting systemic vulnerabilities in Russia’s rear-area defensive construction (1446Z, Sever.Realii; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Active Engagement in Sumy Sector: Russian artillery from the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (44th Army Corps, "Sever" Group) is actively engaging UAF strongholds in snowy conditions near the Sumy border (1451Z, Ru MoD; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Energy Infrastructure Reinforcement: Six European nations (Latvia, Austria, Finland, Croatia, France, Germany) are transferring decommissioned thermal power plant equipment to Ukraine to stabilize the grid against winter strikes (1425Z, Poddubny; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk/Sumy):
Dynamics: Russian UAVs are penetrating toward Velykyi Burluk (Kharkiv) from the west. The Sumy sector is facing a dual threat of KAB strikes and "Sever" Group artillery (44th Army Corps).
Environment: Temperatures in Svatove (-1.6°C) and Vovchansk (-2.5°C) remain sub-zero with light snow. High humidity and 100% cloud cover continue to degrade long-range visual ISR, favoring Russian KABs which use GLONASS guidance (1445Z, Weather Context).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk):
Dynamics: Intense KAB activity reported across the sector. UAF units continue close-quarters trench clearing, with video evidence showing successful sub-tactical assaults and Russian surrenders (1442Z, Butusov Plus).
Environment: Wind speeds are at 3.0 m/s in Pokrovsk, remaining below the critical 5 m/s threshold for FPV grounding, but cloud cover (99%) limits high-altitude UAV operations.
Dynamics: Multi-vector threats continue. UAVs are currently transiting the eastern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city (heading south), while KABs have targeted the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk border (likely aiming at logistics nodes feeding the Orikhiv axis).
Environment: Wind in Orikhiv (2.7 m/s) is currently stable but forecasted to reach 6.1 m/s. This impending increase in wind velocity likely triggers the current "window" for Russian KAB/UAV saturation before drone-based counter-battery fire becomes difficult for UAF.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities/Intentions: Russia is demonstrating a "wide-front" aerial suppression strategy, hitting Sumy, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk simultaneously. This is likely intended to fix UAF air defense assets and prevent their concentration in any single sector ahead of potential late-winter mechanized pushes.
Logistics/Sustainment: The report of a "forged" Russian MoD letter requesting governors to buy satellite communication systems (1443Z, Operatsiya Z) may indicate genuine shortages in military-grade comms, forcing a reliance on civilian-tier alternatives.
Course of Action (COA): Enemy forces are maintaining high-intensity standoff strikes (KABs) while preparing for localized rotations, as seen in the Serebryanske and Sumy sectors.
Friendly forces (Blue force tracking)
Strategic Posture: The leadership is preparing the domestic and international public for a "result-oriented" diplomatic window in late February. This suggests a strategic pause or stabilization may be sought to allow for the integration of new Western energy and military hardware.
Tactical Success: UAF mobile fire groups and trench assault teams remain effective in localized engagements, despite the broader aerial bombardment.
Resilience: The rapid acquisition of used European TPP components is a critical mitigation against the ongoing Russian "energy terror" campaign.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative Diversion: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily amplifying a tragic civilian incident involving Chinese tourists at Lake Baikal (1440Z, 1444Z). This may be a tactic to saturate domestic news feeds and distract from frontline losses or the sentencing of officials in Kursk.
Disinfo Alerts: Pro-Russian sources are labeling the UAF strike on Enerhodar as "barbaric" (1425Z) to influence IAEA or international sentiment regarding the Zaporizhzhia NPP vicinity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian aviation will continue KAB sorties across the northern and eastern arcs (Sumy-Donetsk) to exploit the low-visibility weather. UAV maneuvers toward Zaporizhzhia will persist to keep mobile fire groups occupied.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): As wind speeds in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk sectors are forecasted to rise toward 6 m/s tonight, Russian forces may launch a heavy mechanized assault on Orikhiv or Polohivskyi, timing it to the exact window when UAF FPV drones are grounded by gusts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Determine the authenticity of the "satellite comms" acquisition letter to gauge Russian C2 vulnerabilities.
[OPERATIONAL] Identify the launch sites for the Sumy KAB strikes; evaluate if these are VKS assets shifted from the Kharkiv or Belarus axes.
[STRATEGIC] Assess the impact of Poland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on UAF northern border security and the potential for redeploying Border Guard units to the East.
