Guided Aerial Bomb (CAB) Strike on Komyshuvakha: Russian forces struck a residential building in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region, using guided aerial bombs. Two civilians were wounded, and significant structural damage was reported (1153Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Fatal UAV Strike in Kharkiv: A Russian drone attack on the Malynivska hromada (Kharkiv region) resulted in one fatality and two injuries (1158Z, Tsapliienko; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Claimed Strike on Dobropillia: Pro-Russian sources claim a successful small-UAV strike against a "1st Corps NGU Azov" deployment point in Dobropillia (Donetsk). This remains UNCONFIRMED and is likely a response to recent UAF successes in the sector (1201Z, NgP Razvedka; LOW CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Energy Grid Degradation: Russian forces allegedly struck energy infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia region and a school in Energodar. Local Ukrainian authorities have confirmed updates to the hourly power outage schedule for critical infrastructure due to ongoing damage (1216Z, Operatsiya Z; 1220Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Aerial Reconnaissance in Black Sea: Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian reconnaissance UAV activity in the Black Sea, specifically targeting the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district of the Odesa region (1202Z, UA Air Force; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Svatove Flooding: Reports indicate flooding in the Svatove district (Luhansk) likely caused by ice jams on the Krasna River, potentially affecting local ground mobility (1216Z, Mash na Donbasse; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Dynamics: Persistent Russian UAV incursions are moving from Sumy toward Lebedyn and Krasnopillia (1159Z). The fatal strike in Malynivska indicates a high density of tactical loitering munitions.
Environment: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -1.5°C with 99% cloud cover and light snow. These conditions favor thermal-equipped UAVs but degrade visual-spectrum reconnaissance.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Dynamics: Russian drone units (3rd MRD) are active in the LPR, with video evidence of them operating near front-line roads (1204Z). The flooding in Svatove may naturally restrict off-road movement in the immediate riverine areas.
Environment: Pokrovsk (0.8°C) remains under 100% cloud cover with 2.2 m/s winds, well within the operating window for the Russian drone strikes claimed in Dobropillia.
Dynamics: This sector is seeing the highest multi-domain activity. Russian forces are utilizing CABs against civilian centers (Komyshuvakha) and seeking to degrade the energy grid (Zaporizhzhia/Energodar). Reconnaissance UAVs are active near Vilniansk and in the Black Sea corridor.
Friendly Disposition: UAF units (specifically the 37th) are receiving logistics support including vehicle parts and fuel, indicating ongoing maintenance of operational readiness despite power disruptions (1206Z).
Environment: Orikhiv (3.9°C) and Kherson (6.5°C) are overcast with moderate winds (2.0-2.7 m/s).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shifts: Russia is increasingly employing CABs in the South, likely to compensate for the loss of air defense assets (Tor-M1) reported in the previous sitrep.
C2 and Logistics: Russian forces continue to prioritize the delivery of winter gear and ATVs to the front via Rostov (1201Z, Colonelcassad), preparing for sustained operations in freezing temperatures.
Internal Friction: Domestic arson at a Moscow gas station (1215Z) and continued regulatory pressure on Telegram regarding "doxing" services (1155Z) suggest persistent internal security concerns within the Russian Federation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Force is maintaining active monitoring of multiple UAV vectors (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa).
Logistics/Sustainment: Continued civil-military cooperation is providing essential vehicle maintenance components to frontline units (1206Z).
Information Operations: Israel’s public dismissal of Russian claims at the UN regarding international law is being amplified by Ukrainian channels to undermine Russian diplomatic credibility (1155Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Targeting Narratives: Russian milbloggers are increasingly characterizing Ukrainian infrastructure (like the Energodar school) as "legitimate military targets" to justify standoff strikes (1215Z).
Domestic Distraction: Russian state media is highlighting "absolute record" snowfall in Moscow (80cm) and non-conflict-related incidents (Lake Baikal deaths) to dilute negative front-line reporting (1209Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue UAV and CAB pressure on Zaporizhzhia’s energy and civilian infrastructure to exacerbate the impact of power outages.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces utilize the 100% cloud cover to launch a mechanized push in the Pokrovsk or Dobropillia sectors, betting that Ukrainian FPV drone screens will be less effective in the predicted snow and rising winds (forecast up to 6.1 m/s).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the scale of the "Azov" deployment in Dobropillia to verify the validity of the Russian strike claim.
[OPERATIONAL] Assess the impact of the Svatove flooding on Russian supply routes and potential Ukrainian counter-attack lanes.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor Russian Tu-95MS activity in the Bering Sea to determine if this is a routine patrol or a signaling exercise aimed at Western partners.
