Strategic Strike on Tamanneftegaz: Satellite imagery confirms a successful Ukrainian strike on the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai (Russia). This represents a significant escalation in the deep-strike campaign against Russian fuel logistics and export infrastructure (1126Z, Operativno ZSU; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Official Denial of "3-Year War" Planning: A senior advisor to the Ukrainian President (Lytvyn) has formally denied Russian claims that Ukraine is planning for a mandatory three-year military horizon. This is a direct counter-offensive in the information domain against the narrative reported in the 1123Z sitrep (1136Z, Voenkor Kotenok; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Logistics Evasion: Reports indicate Russian procurement of Chinese-made drones has shifted to a new transit route through Thailand to circumvent current monitoring/sanctions regimes (1147Z, ASTRA; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Civilian Infrastructure Strike: Russian forces conducted a targeted strike on a gas station in Zaporizhzhia, resulting in structural damage and localized fires. This follows the earlier degradation of Russian Tor-M1 air defense systems in the same sector (1133Z, 1144Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Aerial Incursion: Russian UAVs (Shahed-type) have crossed the border between Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, tracking toward Poltava (1127Z, UA Air Force; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
High-Level EU Engagement: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is confirmed to visit Kyiv on February 23rd to mark the four-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion (1135Z, RBK-Ukraine; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Rear):
Dynamics: Following the loss of three Tor-M1 systems earlier today, Russian forces appear to be retaliating with standoff strikes against civilian fuel infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia gas station).
Strategic Depth: The strike on the Tamanneftegaz terminal significantly impacts the Black Sea logistics hub, likely forcing a redistribution of Russian naval fuel assets.
Environment: Kherson (5.9°C) and Orikhiv (4.1°C) remain under 100% cloud cover. High winds (up to 5.7 m/s) in the forecast will continue to limit tactical FPV drone effectiveness for both sides.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Dynamics: While no new ground maneuver was reported in the last hour, the threat of Russian "drone-blind" mechanized pushes remains high. The 3.6 m/s wind max in Luhansk and 5.1 m/s in Pokrovsk is approaching the operational ceiling for smaller tactical UAVs.
Environment: Svatove (-1.0°C) and Pokrovsk (0.9°C) are overcast. Predicted snow (4.2mm in Svatove) will further degrade visibility and ground sensors.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shifts: Russia is attempting to maintain psychological pressure through civilian infrastructure strikes (Zaporizhzhia) while its frontline air defenses are under pressure.
Logistics Adaptation: The Thailand drone route suggests Russia is successfully diversifying its supply chain to mitigate Western pressure on traditional transit hubs.
Internal Morale: The proposal by the Russian "New People" party for a unified mental health hotline and the prosecution of MoD official Vyacheslav Filippov (corruption) indicate continued internal socio-economic and institutional friction within the RF (1133Z, 1146Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Narrative Operations: Ukrainian strategic communications are actively neutralizing the "3-year war" narrative to prevent domestic war weariness and maintain Western support stability.
Legal Accountability: A Russian marine from the 40th Brigade was sentenced to life for the execution of POWs in Kursk, signaling Ukraine's continued use of legal mechanisms as a tool of the hybrid conflict (1146Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Threat Narratives: Russian channels are escalating rhetoric against Western involvement, specifically threatening to down F-16s and targeting "NATO pilots" (1140Z). This is likely intended to deter the actual deployment of these platforms.
Hybrid Distractions: Russian state media (TASS) is amplifying "UFO" narratives (1127Z, 1137Z) in response to US political discourse, likely acting as a "noise" generator to distract from battlefield losses (e.g., Tamanneftegaz).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian UAVs currently over Kharkiv/Sumy will attempt to strike energy or logistical targets in Poltava. Localized Russian ground assaults will continue in the Donbas under the cover of worsening weather.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A surge in Russian ballistic missile strikes against fuel depots in the Southern sector to compensate for the Tamanneftegaz strike and the degraded AD umbrella in Zaporizhzhia.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[STRATEGIC] Assess the operational status of the Tamanneftegaz terminal post-strike to determine the duration of Russian fuel supply disruptions in the Black Sea.
[TACTICAL] Confirm if the "Thailand route" for Chinese drones involves completed units or components for assembly in Russia/Iran.
[OPERATIONAL] Monitor Poltava for impact reports following the current UAV incursion to identify shift in Russian targeting priorities.
