Major UAF Rear-Area Attrition: The 27th Pechersk Brigade (National Guard) struck 13 Russian vehicles, including artillery and armor, deep in the Luhansk rear (1057Z, Butusov Plus; HIGH CONFIDENCE). Concurrently, the 1st Separate UAV Systems Center destroyed three Tor-M1 SAM systems in occupied Zaporizhzhia (1106Z, Operativno ZSU; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Diplomatic Deadlock & Narrative Warfare: Reports (WSJ) suggest negotiations have reached a stalemate, potentially extending the conflict by 1-3 years (1054Z, Tsaplienko). Russian channels are exploiting this by claiming President Zelensky has mandated a three-year military planning horizon due to "failed talks" (1117Z, RBK-Ukraine; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
EU Sanctions Stall: EU ambassadors reportedly failed to reach an agreement on the 20th sanctions package against Russia (1115Z, TASS/Reuters; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Mass Deployment of "Yolka" AD: Russian forces have begun mass-shipping the "Yolka" (Elka) air defense system to front-line units to counter Ukrainian rear-area drone operations (1101Z, Dva Mayora; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Internal Resistance to Mobilization: A violent incident in Chernivtsi Oblast involved a civilian (alleged former serviceman) throwing a grenade at police during a mobilization attempt, resulting in injuries (1107Z, 1115Z, Alex Parker/Colonelcassad; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
VKS Tactical Training: Su-24M formations (Bort "03") were observed practicing low-level maneuvers, likely practicing for stand-off strikes or formation penetration (1056Z, Fighterbomber; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Dynamics: Degradation of Russian localized air defense (3x Tor-M1 lost) provides a temporary window for UAF deep-strike UAVs. Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia have cleared (1056Z), but the threat from VKS Su-34/35 KAB platforms remains high.
Environment: Temperatures are rising (4.0°C in Orikhiv, 5.8°C in Kherson) with 100% cloud cover. Forecasted light rain (100% probability) and wind gusts up to 5.7 m/s will continue to degrade FPV intercept effectiveness.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Dynamics: Analysis indicates the Russian 36th Combined Arms Army (CAA) is failing to effectively screen the northern flank of the 5th CAA due to internal friction at the seam with the 29th CAA (1109Z, Zvizdeц Mangustu).
Kinetic Activity: High-intensity UAV attrition of Russian logistics in the Luhansk rear suggests UAF is targeting the "second echelon" to prevent the buildup of mechanized reserves.
Environment: Svatove (-1.0°C) and Pokrovsk (0.7°C) remain under heavy overcast (98-100% cloud). Significant snow (4.2mm) is forecast for Svatove, which will likely stall Russian mechanized maneuver but also ground UA tactical reconnaissance drones.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
AD Adaptation: The introduction of the "Yolka" system suggests Russia is fielding a specialized point-defense solution to protect the rear-area assets currently being picked apart by Ukrainian drone groups like "LASAR'S GROUP."
Internal Posture: A high-confidence belief (1.0) suggests Russian authorities may be initiating or preparing for a Counter-Terrorism Operation (CTO) in Moscow, likely linked to the upcoming February 23rd holidays or heightened internal security following the RKN/Telegram disputes.
Logistics Sustainment: While UAF is successfully hunting Russian SAMs and armor, the arrival of modernized BREM-80 recovery vehicles (1112Z) indicates an intent to sustain a high-tempo mechanized offensive despite the worsening weather.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Attrition: UAF is prioritizing high-value Russian AD assets (Tor-M1) and concentrated logistical columns in the Luhansk sector. This "deep battle" approach aims to create vulnerabilities for RU mechanized units as they attempt to move under the cover of bad weather.
Internal Morale: Commemoration of the "Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred" (1056Z) is being used to reinforce national identity amidst difficult mobilization conditions and the "3-year war" narrative.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: Russian channels are heavily amplifying the "negotiation failure" and "3-year war" theme to induce war weariness in the Ukrainian populace and doubt among Western partners.
Telegram Targeting: Roskomnadzor (RKN) is escalating its campaign against Telegram, demanding the platform self-identify and block "personal data" lookup services (1103Z, 1105Z). This remains a critical hybrid threat; a Telegram shutdown would decapitate both RU milblogger reporting and UA civilian early warning systems.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to capitalize on the incoming snow/sleet in the Donbas to conduct localized assaults, betting on the "drone-blind" window while UAF FPVs are grounded.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated VKS strike using the Su-24M formations practiced today to suppress UAF air defenses in the Zaporizhzhia sector, followed by a heavy mechanized push facilitated by the newly deployed BREM-80 recovery units.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Confirm the exact location of the "LASAR'S GROUP" strikes in Luhansk to determine if RU is concentrating reserves for a new axis of advance.
[TACTICAL] Assess the technical capabilities and effective range of the "Yolka" AD system to update drone flight-path protocols.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor for indicators of a formal CTO declaration in Moscow, which may signal a shift in Russian domestic security posture or an impending large-scale escalation.
