Major Infrastructure Strikes (Zaporizhzhia/Poltava): Multiple Russian KAB and missile strikes hit critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city and Poltava Oblast. A "massive fire" is confirmed in Zaporizhzhia; Poltava’s oil/gas infrastructure was also hit (ZOA 0936Z, Naftogaz 0937Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Deep Strike Success (Taman, RU): Post-strike imagery confirms successful Ukrainian engagement of oil reservoirs at the "Tamaneftgas" terminal in Krasnodar Krai (CyberBoroshno 0928Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Targeting of Communication Hubs: Operators from the Russian 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade reportedly struck Ukrainian communication facilities in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk sectors using FPV drones (Voin DV 0925Z, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
North Korean Combat Integration: President Zelensky confirmed 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, specifically training in modern hybrid warfare, including the operation of fiber-optic and long-range drones (Zelensky 0937Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Tactical Ambush in Kherson: Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a Russian pickup truck in occupied Kozachi Laherі, allegedly resulting in 8 KIA (Shef Hayabusa 0929Z, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Legislative/Tech Update: The Ukrainian Cabinet is revising Starlink registration requirements (Res. 115) for legal entities, likely to streamline military-civilian logistics (Operativno ZSU 0940Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Environment: Kharkiv (-1.8°C) and Svatove (-1.2°C) remain overcast. Pokrovsk (0.0°C) is experiencing snow grains (code 77) with winds at 5.1 m/s.
Dynamics: RU Shahed drones are active in northeast Kharkiv, moving SE (0938Z). Russian milbloggers are crowdfunding for high-end Mavic 3 Pro drones near the Dobropillya/Pokrovsk salient, citing both weather-related grounding and a localized Starlink outage affecting RU operations (Slivochny Kapriz 0936Z).
Environment: Orikhiv (2.8°C) and Kherson (5.0°C). Winds in Orikhiv (5.7 m/s) remain at the threshold for light FPV operations.
Dynamics: This is currently the most active kinetic sector. Systematic KAB launches targeted Zaporizhzhia (0927Z) and Sumy (0945Z). A large-scale strike on a Zaporizhzhia infrastructure object resulted in a massive smoke plume visible across the city. UA Air Force reports Shahed drones south of Zaporizhzhia on a western heading (0935Z).
3. Strategic Rear / Deep Strike:
Energy War: Simultaneously with RU strikes on UA gas infrastructure in Poltava, UA successfully damaged the Taman oil terminal. These reciprocal strikes indicate a high-intensity phase of the "energy war" targeting storage rather than just generation.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): Russia is utilizing Spetsnaz (14th Bde) for surgical strikes on communication nodes, likely to degrade UAF C2 ahead of potential mechanized pushes in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnepropetrovsk border region.
Tactical Evolution: The presence of North Korean troops learning fiber-optic drone tactics suggests RU intends to field "EW-proof" drone units in the mid-term, mitigating UA's electronic warfare advantage.
Personnel Status: Reports from Kuzbass indicate a significant reduction (threefold) in "coffin payments" (death benefits), suggesting growing fiscal strain on RU regional budgets despite continued offensive tempo (0949Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
C-UAV & C2: UAF is maintaining a high tempo of "systematic strikes" against RU command posts and logistics across all occupied territories, including Crimea (GS ZSU 0941Z).
Diplomatic Maneuvering: President Zelensky is pivoting toward Japan for a "historic" defense cooperation deal, specifically seeking missile defense technology transfer to counter the KAB/ballistic threat (0932Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Wartime Elections" Narrative: Pro-RU channels are amplifying claims of a "secret bill" in the Rada to hold elections during the war (0934Z). This is assessed as a psychological operation to create internal political friction in Ukraine.
Casualty Inflation: Repeat of the "1.5 million losses" claim (Poddubny 0926Z) continues. UNCONFIRMED/DISINFORMATION – this figure remains statistically unsupported and is intended to drive war-weariness.
Hybrid Distraction: RU state media is emphasizing the "automatic" nature of US sanctions while amplifying domestic accidents (Baikal drowning) and regional EU political friction (Orban's anti-UA campaign) to distract from frontline losses.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-volume KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Sumy to capitalize on current cloud cover (88-100%). RU will likely attempt to exploit the "comms gap" created by Spetsnaz strikes in the South.
MDCOA: RU mechanized units in the Dobropillya sector may attempt a limited breakthrough while wind speeds (5.1-5.7 m/s) continue to suppress UA tactical FPV screens.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Verify the extent of the "Starlink outage" reported by Russian units near Dobropillya; determine if this is due to UA electronic warfare or technical failure.
[OPERATIONAL] Assess the damage to the Poltava gas infrastructure; determine if it impacts transit or domestic supply.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor for the first combat deployment of North Korean units specifically trained in fiber-optic FPV operations.
