Escalation in KAB Employment: The Ukrainian Air Force reported a massive wave of KAB (guided glide bomb) launches between 0853Z and 0921Z, targeting five distinct regions: Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and the Zaporizhzhia border (AFU, 0853Z-0921Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
International Aid Arrivals/Commitments: The Austrian Minister for European Affairs arrived in Kyiv (0917Z, RBK-UA); concurrently, Sweden announced its 21st military aid package, and France confirmed the transfer of two additional Mirage-2000 aircraft by mid-2026 (0920Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Strike on UAV Logistics: Pro-Russian sources claim the destruction of a UAF UAV storage depot and launcher near Beryoza, Sumy Oblast, via Lancet and Tornado MLRS strikes (0915Z, Colonelcassad, LOW CONFIDENCE/UNCONFIRMED).
Foreign Combatant Confirmation: Footage from the 120th Territorial Defense Brigade confirms the presence of African mercenaries fighting for Russian forces in the Kharkiv sector (0901Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Assassination Investigation: Ukraine and Moldova have launched a joint investigation into Russian-coordinated attempts to assassinate high-profile Ukrainian public figures (0855Z, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk/Kupyansk):
Environment: Kharkiv is at -2.5°C, overcast. Svatove at -1.6°C. Light snow is forecast for the next 12 hours.
Dynamics: Despite the cold, FPV operations remain active. A strike was confirmed on RU personnel in this sector (0901Z). RU aviation is heavily engaged, launching KABs from the east towards Kharkiv and Sumy (0853Z, 0908Z). Activity was noted specifically in the Kucherivka area near Kupyansk (0858Z).
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk/Toretsk):
Environment: Pokrovsk at -0.4°C with 100% cloud cover. Snow grains (code 77) are persisting, which may degrade visual recon.
Dynamics: The most recent RU KAB launches (0921Z) targeted the Donetsk sector, likely supporting the ground pressure previously noted near Kostiantynivka and Oleksandrivka. DeepState reports a map update, suggesting minor shifts in the frontline (0911Z).
Environment: Orikhiv at 1.7°C; Kherson at 4.6°C. High humidity and cloud cover.
Dynamics: RU aviation is increasingly targeting the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border and southeastern Dnipropetrovsk with glide bombs (0853Z, 0918Z). UAV activity is also shifting toward the Samara area (Dnipropetrovsk) from the southeast (0917Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Pivot: The surge in KAB strikes indicates that Russia is leveraging its stand-off aviation capability to compensate for tactical drone limitations caused by high winds (up to 5.7 m/s in the south). This allows them to strike hardened defenses and logistics hubs without exposing armor to FPV screens.
Logistics Targeting: If the strike on the Sumy UAV depot is confirmed, it marks a refined RU effort to neutralize UA's technological edge (drones) at the source rather than on the front line.
Hybrid Warfare: Russian intelligence is likely behind the sensationalist "imminent Putin address" rumors (0853Z) and the circulation of extreme casualty claims (1.5M), designed to incite panic and domestic pressure within Ukraine during the "Day of Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred" commemorations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics & Maintenance: UA continues to receive diplomatic and material support; however, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Ihor Zhovkva emphasized that delayed air defense deliveries remain the primary vulnerability allowing ballistic/KAB strikes on energy infrastructure (0917Z).
Counter-Mercenary Operations: Successful FPV strikes in the Kharkiv sector demonstrate the 120th TDF's ability to maintain high-precision lethality against RU's diversified manpower pools.
Information environment / disinformation
Panic Operations: Pro-RU channel "Alex Parker Returns" is pushing a "decisive escalation" narrative (0853Z) that lacks corroboration. This is likely a psychological operation aimed at disrupting the Feb 20th commemorations.
Fracture Messaging: RU state media is amplifying claims that Poland is revoking refugee privileges (0904Z) and that UA is preparing for a "war until 2029," aiming to foster war-weariness in the West.
Strategic Disinfo: The claim of 1.5 million UA military losses (0903Z) is assessed as HIGH DISINFORMATION and should be discarded as a statistical impossibility based on current mobilization and confirmed casualty data.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will maintain a high tempo of KAB launches throughout the afternoon to disrupt UAF reinforcements moving toward Huliaipole and Pokrovsk. UAV saturation of Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk will likely continue to probe air defense readiness.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU uses the "KAB corridor" created by heavy strikes on the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border to launch a mechanized thrust toward the Velyka Novosilka salient, capitalizing on the 100% cloud cover which hinders UA aerial observation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the status of the UAV depot in Beryoza (Sumy); assess if Lancet strikes have successfully identified a new logistics pattern in the sector.
[OPERATIONAL] Identify the launch platforms for the recent KAB wave (Su-34/Su-35) and their basing locations to coordinate long-range counter-air or ATACMS strikes.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor Moldovan/Ukrainian joint probe results for evidence of specific RU GRU units involved in domestic assassination plots.
