Confirmed Missile Strike (Kharkiv): Russian forces executed a missile strike on the Slobidskyi district of Kharkiv. The threat of ballistic weaponry in the region has since been cleared (0345Z, 0351Z, 0413Z, Kharkiv ODA/UAF AF/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Persistent KAB Strikes (Dnipropetrovsk): Tactical aviation has launched additional Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (0403Z, UAF AF, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAV Incursion (Kharkiv): A Russian UAV has been detected in the Bohodukhiv district, maintaining a southern heading (0407Z, UAF AF, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Industrial Logistics (Recovery Assets): Uralvagonzavod has reportedly delivered a new batch of modernized BREM-80 armored recovery vehicles to Russian frontline units (0402Z, TASS, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Russian Interior Activity: Russian MoD claims to have intercepted 149 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across various regions. Additionally, a Ukrainian attack was reported in Suzemska, Bryansk Oblast (0352Z, 0410Z, TASS/AV Bogomaz, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Dynamics: The ballistic strike on the Slobidskyi district (Kharkiv) marks a transition from the earlier OWA-UAV saturation to kinetic missile effects. While the immediate ballistic threat is cleared (0351Z), a new UAV threat in the Bohodukhiv district (0407Z) suggests continued aerial reconnaissance or loitering munition pressure. Low wind speeds continue to favor Russian aerial operations despite the temperature drop.
2. Eastern Sector (Svatove/Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Environment: Pokrovsk at -4.2°C, wind 1.3 m/s; Svatove at -6.6°C, wind 2.4 m/s.
Dynamics: Cloud cover has increased significantly (Svatove 77%, Pokrovsk 82%) compared to the previous report. This likely precedes the 100% probability of light snow forecasted for today. Reduced visibility may hamper long-range optical reconnaissance, forcing a reliance on thermal-equipped UAVs (like the Mavic 3 Pro units recently received by the 37th Motorized Infantry Brigade).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Environment: Orikhiv at -2.7°C, wind 1.1 m/s; Kherson at -0.4°C, wind 2.0 m/s.
Dynamics: This sector remains under the heaviest cloud cover (94% in Orikhiv). The low wind (1.1 m/s) is highly conducive to the Shahed-type UAV transits identified in the previous sitrep (0323Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift (Armor Recovery): The delivery of BREM-80 armored recovery vehicles (0402Z) is an operational indicator. These assets are critical for maintaining the tempo of mechanized assaults by recovering damaged armor under fire. Their deployment suggests Russia is bracing for increased vehicle attrition or preparing for a high-intensity offensive push where rapid repair-and-return is required.
Course of Action (Suppression): The continued use of KABs in Dnipropetrovsk indicates a systematic attempt to suppress rear logistics and assembly points that support the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts.
Unit Tracking: The 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Buryatia) is active and utilizing crowd-sourced tactical UAVs (Mavic 3 Pro), indicating that while heavy equipment is being modernized (BREM-80), tactical units still rely on non-standard procurement for ISR (0359Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: Significant UAV activity over Russian territory (claimed 149 intercepts) and the reported strike in Suzemska (0352Z) demonstrate the UAF's continued commitment to asymmetric deep-strike operations to disrupt Russian "safe" rear areas and air defense distributions.
Air Defense: Successfully transitioned from ballistic intercept posture to tactical aviation/UAV monitoring in the Kharkiv and Dnipro sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
Mass Interception Narrative: The Russian MoD's claim of 149 UAV intercepts (0410Z) is likely an inflated figure intended to project air defense invulnerability and reassure the domestic population following the Sevastopol incident.
Distraction Messaging: State media (TASS) is disseminating Western celebrity news (0348Z) alongside military updates, a common tactic to dilute the focus on frontline developments or internal incidents (e.g., the missing helicopter in Amur).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Transition from missile strikes to intensified KAB and UAV sorties in the Kharkiv-Dnipro-Donetsk arc. As cloud cover increases and snow begins, Russian ground forces will likely use the BREM-80 assets to prep mechanized lanes for probes near Pokrovsk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed mechanized assault in the Pokrovsk sector under the cover of the incoming snowstorm, exploiting the "drone-blind" window while Ukrainian thermal-ISR is degraded by heavy precipitation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TECHNICAL] Verify the specific variant and quantity of BREM-80s delivered to determine which specific Army Groups are receiving prioritized recovery support.
[BATTLE DAMAGE] Confirm the specific impact point of the Slobidskyi district missile strike to assess if the target was the transport hub or energy infrastructure.
[OPERATIONAL] Monitor the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade's location to determine if they have shifted from the Vuhledar/South Donetsk sector.
